In November last year, John Kerry, the tireless US secretary of state, predicted that Syria was a few weeks away from a big transition. The transition he was talking about was due to take place at peace talks scheduled for last week at which the Assad regime and the rebels were due to discuss a ceasefire.
Those peace talks never got under way. Instead there is another big transition taking place: a Russian-backed regime onslaught looks set to drive the rebel forces in northern Syria – some of them backed by Washington and its allies – from the battlefield.
It has been a constant of diplomatic discourse that no military solution to the conflict is possible. That may be true. But the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, is showing that external military force is the way to change the facts on the ground.
Until last summer, the regime forces were ragged and in retreat, incapable of mustering enough soldiers to hold ground, let alone launch a successful offensive. Only the presence of Iranian soldiers and their allies from Lebanon and Iraq saved the regime from what looked to be a strategic retreat to defend Damascus.
Since Mr Putin threw his air force behind the regime, the tables have turned. The rebels look as if they will lose control of their part of Aleppo. After the rebel withdrawal from Homs in December, that would leave the regime in control of Syria’s three biggest cities.
How has this happened? It has a lot to do with the different relationships that US president Barack Obama and Mr Putin have to power, which is turn stems from the very different history and geography of America and Russia.
Mr Obama has been roundly criticised for behaving like a professor who looks at the available options and rules them all out. Given that Mr Obama felt he was elected to end American involvement in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the fact that toppling Muammar Qaddafi in Libya led to state collapse, ruling out military intervention makes sense.
But the charge that Mr Obama cannot escape is that having decided not to invade Syria, he still declared that Bashar Al Assad had to go – without putting in place any means to ensure this goal was met. His 2011 statement that “the time has come for President Assad to step aside” was resonant but divorced from the power game.
Since then, Mr Kerry has been delicately climbing down from that position to allow a peace process, inevitably involving the regime, to take place. At the same time, Russia has worked to boost the Syrian leader as the linchpin of stability, first by twisting his arm to give up chemical weapons and then promoting him as the only viable alternative to ISIL.
Mr Obama is not the first president to shy away from foreign entanglements. It took Bill Clinton three years to be persuaded to intervene in Kosovo, but in the end he did. In Mr Obama’s world view, Syria is a distant conflict, and despite Republican hopefuls Donald Trump and Ted Cruz crying out for carpet bombing of ISIL, it is not a serious threat to the US homeland. Most Americans probably would not thank Mr Obama for shedding blood there.
Mr Putin sees the use of power as the test of a politician. As a well-connected Russian observer remarked this week: “Putin can only have the deepest disrespect for Obama, because he is not a power player.”
For Mr Putin, fighting battles abroad, in Ukraine and Syria, is about staying in power at home. He is not about to leave the Kremlin at the end of his current term. He has to keep fighting. Having seized a part of Ukraine, he has now established his forces in Syria. In the words of the Ukrainian foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin, Putin’s message to the world is: “The only way you can sort these problems out is with me.”
Mr Putin learnt an early lesson in the 1980s when he witnessed at first hand the collapse of East Germany and then the Soviet army’s retreat from the countries of central Europe it had controlled since 1945. For hundreds of years Russia has sought to expand south and west, occasionally being rolled back before it resumed the outward march. Mr Putin’s predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, presided over a retreat; Mr Putin is expanding Russia’s footprint.
Ultimately for Mr Putin, the Syrian crisis is one of domestic politics. Having set out to challenge the US, and earned high popularity ratings in Russia for doing so, his obvious choice must be to keep pushing – even if in the longer term his overstretch may weaken the Kremlin.
For Mr Obama there are no easy choices. The adage that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” does not apply in Syria. Indeed, the identification of friends and enemies gets harder by the day. The gap between America’s interests and those of its regional allies could be bridged only if the US did most of the heavy lifting in terms of men and weapons, in which case the allies would have to tag along. As Washington is not doing that, Russia and the regional players are all vying for leadership.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this week denounced the US for relying on the Kurdish PYD militia – seen by Ankara as a terrorist outfit – as its strike force in northern Syria. The French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, bowed out of his job on Wednesday with an undiplomatic broadside aimed at Mr Obama. He said American policy had been “ambiguous” and Mr Obama had not shown a strong commitment.
In effect, Mr Erdogan wants the Americans to commit to toppling the Assad regime and to restrain the Kurds. The French, having lost 130 people in the ISIL-inspired attacks in Paris in November, seem to be tempted by the Russian solution to curbing the terrorist threat. The big transition could be years away.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
On Twitter: @aphilps
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Sweet%20Tooth
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJim%20Mickle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristian%20Convery%2C%20Nonso%20Anozie%2C%20Adeel%20Akhtar%2C%20Stefania%20LaVie%20Owen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Hot%20Seat
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20James%20Cullen%20Bressack%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Mel%20Gibson%2C%20Kevin%20Dillon%2C%20Shannen%20Doherty%2C%20Sam%20Asghari%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
'Will%20of%20the%20People'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EArtist%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMuse%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELabel%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWarner%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wes%20Ball%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Owen%20Teague%2C%20Freya%20Allen%2C%20Kevin%20Durand%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Eyasses squad
Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)
Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)
Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)
Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)
Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)
Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)
Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)
Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)
Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)
