Security and political uncertainty deepens Afghan downturn



KABUL // A bored security guard, a Kalashnikov rifle over his shoulder, stands guard alone outside an idle construction site for a 10-storey building in downtown Kabul, one of more than a dozen concrete shells with not a single construction worker in sight.

It was meant to be boom-time after decades of war and privation. Over the past few years, shiny new shopping malls started to spring up around the Afghan capital and construction cranes dotted Kabul’s spectacular, snow-capped horizon.

But the cranes have since disappeared and many buildings are empty and unfinished, having failed to reach completion before the money began to dry up.

Business has ground to a halt across much of Afghanistan. Political uncertainty abounds before another presidential vote and security fears are growing as the last foreign combat troops prepare to leave.

“To invest in such an environment would be craziness,” acknowledges Hameedullah Omar, marketing manager of a deserted nine-storey office complex in Kabul’s main shopping district that was completed only last year.

Foreign donors worried about deteriorating security are leaving as Western forces wind down operations, leaving aid-dependent Kabul to manage its threadbare finances on its own.

The United States and Britain, two of the biggest donors, have already cut aid by up to half.

International aid groups, which provide a lifeline for marginalised Afghans, say funds are drying up fast. One US non-profit group that runs 13 schools for 3,000 girls says it hasn’t paid its teachers for more than a year.

“Investment is mostly on hold in Afghanistan,” said the deputy chief of the central bank, Khan Afzal Hadawal.

The International Crisis Group think tank said in a report released last week that the number of attacks by Islamist insurgents had risen since the drawdown of foreign troops began, and forecast a bloody future unless there was more foreign assistance.

Investors and foreign donors have hit the ‘pause’ button, anxious about what lies ahead as Afghanistan strives to go it alone after nearly 13 years during which hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign capital kept it afloat.

Their main concern stems from a year-end deadline for foreign combat troops to leave, and stalled negotiations between Kabul and Washington on a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) to allow a small force of US troops to stay after December 31.

“The uncertain fate of the BSA and election run-off has damaged all businesses,” said Mr Omar. “It is not only ours but all around the country people live in such an uncertain future.”

After years of bitter wrangling over a range of issues, President Hamid Karzai has refused to put his name to the security pact, saying he would leave it to his successor.

But a presidential vote last month failed to produce an outright winner, setting the stage for a second round run-off — and yet more uncertainty.

That means it could be months before a new president is inaugurated, leaving little time to sign the BSA.

The two men poised to contest the second round run-off next month, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, have vowed to complete the deal that will allow some US troops to stay for counterinsurgency and training purposes.

“If the run-off takes a long time and the security pact is not signed soon, the impact would be even more severe,” said Mohammad Ismail Afzal, manager of the Zia Shuja construction firm. “Many businessmen have already taken their money out, and the rest will take it out, too.”

* Reuters

Business Insights
  • As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses. 
  • SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income. 
  • Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.

As You Were

Liam Gallagher

(Warner Bros)

Sinopharm vaccine explained

The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades. 

“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.

"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."

This is then injected into the body.

"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.

"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."

The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.

Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.

“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Rating: 2/5
 
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners

Tuesday results:

  • Singapore bt Malaysia by 29 runs
  • UAE bt Oman by 13 runs
  • Hong Kong bt Nepal by 3 wickets

Final:
Thursday, UAE v Hong Kong

Disclaimer

Director: Alfonso Cuaron 

Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville 

Rating: 4/5

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21

  1. Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
  2. Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
  3. Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
  4. Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
  5. Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
  6. Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
  7. Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
  8. Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Matt%20Drummond%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlyla%20Browne%2C%20Alice%20Parkinson%2C%20Sam%20Everingham%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode

Directors: Raj & DK

Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon

Rating: 4/5

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Four%20scenarios%20for%20Ukraine%20war
%3Cp%3E1.%20Protracted%20but%20less%20intense%20war%20(60%25%20likelihood)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Negotiated%20end%20to%20the%20conflict%20(30%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Russia%20seizes%20more%20territory%20(20%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Ukraine%20pushes%20Russia%20back%20(10%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EForecast%20by%20Economist%20Intelligence%20Unit%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
ESSENTIALS

The flights 
Fly Etihad or Emirates from the UAE to Moscow from 2,763 return per person return including taxes. 
Where to stay 
Trips on the Golden Eagle Trans-Siberian cost from US$16,995 (Dh62,414) per person, based on two sharing.

Company Profile 

Founder: Omar Onsi

Launched: 2018

Employees: 35

Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)

Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Harry%20%26%20Meghan
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees

Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme

Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks

Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding

Profile Periscope Media

Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)

Launch year: 2020

Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021

Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year

Investors: Co-founders

if you go

The flights

Emirates offer flights to Buenos Aires from Dubai, via Rio De Janeiro from around Dh6,300. emirates.com

Seeing the games

Tangol sell experiences across South America and generally have good access to tickets for most of the big teams in Buenos Aires: Boca Juniors, River Plate, and Independiente. Prices from Dh550 and include pick up and drop off from your hotel in the city. tangol.com

 

Staying there

Tangol will pick up tourists from any hotel in Buenos Aires, but after the intensity of the game, the Faena makes for tranquil, upmarket accommodation. Doubles from Dh1,110. faena.com

 

Results

Women finals: 48kg - Urantsetseg Munkhbat (MGL) bt Distria Krasniqi (KOS); 52kg - Odette Guiffrida (ITA) bt Majlinda Kelmendi (KOS); 57kg - Nora Gjakova (KOS) bt Anastasiia Konkina (Rus)

Men’s finals: 60kg - Amiran Papinashvili (GEO) bt Francisco Garrigos (ESP); 66kg - Vazha Margvelashvili (Geo) bt Yerlan Serikzhanov (KAZ)

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Five personal finance podcasts from The National

 

To help you get started, tune into these Pocketful of Dirham episodes 

·

Balance is essential to happiness, health and wealth 

·

What is a portfolio stress test? 

·

What are NFTs and why are auction houses interested? 

·

How gamers are getting rich by earning cryptocurrencies 

·

Should you buy or rent a home in the UAE?  

The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)

What is THAAD?

It is considered to be the US' most superior missile defence system.

Production:

It was first created in 2008.

Speed:

THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.

Abilities:

THAAD is designed to take out projectiles, namely ballistic missiles, as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".

Purpose:

To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.

Range:

THAAD can target projectiles both inside and outside of the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 93 miles above the Earth's surface.

Creators:

Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.

UAE and THAAD:

In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then deployed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.

IPL 2018 FINAL

Sunrisers Hyderabad 178-6 (20 ovs)
Chennai Super Kings 181-2 (18.3 ovs)

Chennai win by eight wickets

Dubai World Cup Carnival Card:

6.30pm: Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (Dirt) 1,200m​​​​​​​
7.40pm: Zabeel Turf Listed $175,000 (T) 2,000m​​​​​​​
8.15pm: Cape Verdi Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m​​​​​​​
8.50pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,600m​​​​​​​
9.25pm: Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,600m

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Personalities on the Plate: The Lives and Minds of Animals We Eat

Barbara J King, University of Chicago Press