It seemed like a sensible move at the time. “Leicester City have today agreed with the representatives of Jamie Vardy to extend the England international’s contract with the Premier League champions for a further four years,” a club statement read last June.
The announcement ended speculation of a move to Arsenal, who had bid £22 million (nearly Dh100m) for Vardy’s services a few weeks previous.
The striker was fresh off the back of scoring 24 goals in Leicester’s remarkable title triumph, but there were significant doubts about whether he would be able to adapt to the demands of a possession-based game at the Emirates Stadium.
In the end, Vardy’s decision to stay put looked like the right one.
He probably regrets not making the leap now. Ahead of tonight’s FA Cup fourth-round replay against Derby County – a rather unwelcome distraction for Claudio Ranieri and his men – the champions find themselves one point and two places above the drop zone.
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They do not have so much as a Premier League goal to their name in 2017. Their form is so concerning that Kasper Schmeichel felt moved to publicly warn his teammates that unless Leicester “stand up and be counted … we are going to end up getting relegated” following Sunday’s 3-0 home reverse against Manchester United.
Leicester’s problems are plentiful. A defensive unit which was breached on 11 occasions in the second half of last season now looks ragged and disjointed.
There is little creativity or invention to their attacking play, while Ranieri is still struggling to find the right combination in the centre of midfield.
It is tempting to trace all of their issues back to the summer sale of N’Golo Kante, who has taken his extraordinary influence to Chelsea this year.
It has subsequently become even more apparent that the Frenchman was the glue which held Ranieri’s team together, and his absence has adversely affected Leicester at both ends of the pitch.
While the importance of Kante’s incredible ball-winning skills to Leicester’s defensive set-up was self-explanatory, his ability to regain possession quickly was also vital to the side’s counter-attacking game plan.
The midfield enforcer may have provided the assist for only one of Vardy’s 24 top-flight goals, but he was fundamental to the overall approach that allowed the former Fleetwood frontman to thrive.
As the supply line has dried up this term, so too has Vardy’s effectiveness. He continues to hang on the shoulder of the last defender, waiting for the right moment to pounce, but this is translating to far fewer opportunities in 2016/17 than it was in 2015/16.
Vardy has scored five times from 27 non-penalty shots this season, which gives him a superior conversion rate to his record in Leicester’s title-winning campaign, when he netted 19 goals from 110 non-penalty efforts.
The problem for Ranieri is that his No 9 has taken only 1.3 shots per match this term compared to 3.2 last time out.
Opta’s Expected Goals model, an analytical tool which measures the quality of any given chance, calculates that Vardy would have been expected to score 5.03 goals this season based on the shots he has taken, which again suggests his finishing is not the issue.
The player himself is certainly not immune to criticism, particularly as his general demeanour has often been poor.
But it was always going to be unrealistic to expect a player age 30 to significantly adapt his game and broaden his skill set after the best campaign of his career.
Vardy does not possess the attributes to regularly fashion his own opportunities out of nothing, and he has always relied on others to create for him. The dramatic decrease in his scoring chances this season is indicative of Leicester’s wider struggles.
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