Turning the page of the calendar to August annually unleashes a torrent of predictions on the NFL season. Which teams will surface in the Super Bowl? Who will be the Most Valuable Player? How many miscreants will Roger Goodell, the commissioner, throw into his prison?
You have stumbled into yet another such column, but stick around. This one is different. It will forecast four trends this season resulting from the lockout and delayed start of training camps, plus four long-term ramifications.
First, the trends
1 Parity will become passe.
For the past two decades, the margin in almost half of the games was eight points or fewer. Nearly one in four were determined by a field goal or less. At the season's end, a magnifying glass was often required to detect the differences between 10-6 and 6-10 teams.
In the league that preaches parity as a selling point, look for greater disparity this year, especially early. The compressed rehearsal period will hamper teams that need more time for player evaluation and practice. Some will fall behind and never catch up.
2 First-year head coaches will struggle.
Most of the eight new coaches are just getting to know their players, much less figure out how to deploy them. Take the Carolina Panthers, who opened camp with 20 free agents from last season. Their main offensive threat (Steve Smith) wants out. They are breaking in a young quarterback (Cameron Newton; see trend No 3).
Welcome to the jungle, Ron Rivera.
You too, Tennessee's Mike Munchak, who must replace Jeff Fisher's 16-year system. Your ball-carrier supreme (Chris Johnson) is holding out. Your stellar wide receiver (Kenny Britt) is kneepad-deep in legal hassles. You, as well, are initiating a just-acquired QB (Matt Hasselbeck).
In Denver, John Fox is a run-first coach with no standout running back and under pressure to start the unready Tim Tebow behind the centre. Also, his defence reeks.
3 Teams with new quarterbacks will struggle.
Relocated QBs are supposed to introduce themselves no later than the off-season practices in May, not on the eve of training camp towards the end of July. The getting-to-know-you period will be rushed.
Teams are prohibited from twice-daily practices in pads, further shutting the window for acclimation.
This means trouble for Tennessee's Hasselbeck, Arizona's Kevin Kolb, Seattle's Tavaris Jackson and Washington's John Beck. And particularly for the possible rookie starters Newton, Minnesota's Christian Ponder and Cincinnati's Andy Dalton.
4 The stable teams, with entrenched coaches and battle-tested players, will thrive.
Think New England, where Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been incumbents for, like, forever.
Or Philadelphia, with the new NFL coaching dean, Andy Reid, and the resurrected Michael Vick.
The following four long-range effects might not be evident by this year's Super Bowl, but give them time.
1 The pendulum that has moved toward more passing will continue at pace.
With curbs on training in pads, teams will be less able to develop the toughness and timing necessary to hone a rushing attack. Players clad in just shorts and T-shirts can work on passing all day. The running game? Not so much.
The Kolb-to-Cardinals trade illustrates the inflated value of a passer. Kolb, with only seven career starts and more interceptions (14) than touchdowns (11), hit the jackpot with a five-year, US$63 million (Dh231.4m) contract.
2 In the NFL, 40 will be the new 30.
With reduced practice hours, veterans will become more inclined to postpone retirement until deep into their 30s. Careers also will be extended as salaries rise at a greater rate for the old-timers now that runaway rookie wages have been reined in.
3 With less off-season monitoring, players will be on their own to stay in shape.
Got that, Albert Haynesworth?
Inevitably, some will report to camp in couch potato condition, raising the risk of injury and demotion on the depth chart.
4 Tightwad teams will loosen their purse strings and presumably improve.
Teams are now required to spend nearly 100 per cent of the salary cap on player wages. Under the old agreement, cheapskates could shell out far less. Tampa Bay entered the off-season with a projected payroll of $59.7m. They must double the figure to conform to the new deal, which carries a projected cap of $120.4m this season. If the Buccaneers invest wisely, they will benefit.
Other teams primed for spending sprees are Jacksonville ($78.1m), Kansas City ($74.7m) and Carolina ($73m).
Bonus prediction: in two years, the agreement allows Goodell to resume his crusade for an 18-game regular season.
The players, fiercely opposed so far, can vote it down, but the promise of extra dollars might trump safety concerns.
For better or worse, start preparing for two extra Sundays of football in 2013.
sports@thenational.ae
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WIDE%20VIEW
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Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Kanye%20West
%3Cp%3EYe%20%E2%80%94%20the%20rapper%20formerly%20known%20as%20Kanye%20West%20%E2%80%94%20has%20seen%20his%20net%20worth%20fall%20to%20%24400%20million%20in%20recent%20weeks.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20precipitous%20drop%20from%20Bloomberg%E2%80%99s%20estimates%20of%20%246.8%20billion%20at%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3Cbr%3EYe%E2%80%99s%20wealth%20plunged%20after%20business%20partners%2C%20including%20Adidas%2C%20severed%20ties%20with%20him%20on%20the%20back%20of%20anti-Semitic%20remarks%20earlier%20this%20year.%3Cbr%3EWest%E2%80%99s%20present%20net%20worth%20derives%20from%20cash%2C%20his%20music%2C%20real%20estate%20and%20a%20stake%20in%20former%20wife%20Kim%20Kardashian%E2%80%99s%20shapewear%20firm%2C%20Skims.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Ashes 2019 schedule
August 1-5: First Test, Edgbaston
August 14-18: Second Test, Lord's
August 22-26: Third Test, Headingley
September 4-8: Fourth Test, Old Trafford
September 12-16: Fifth Test, Oval
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Day 1, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Sadeera Samarawickrama set pulses racing with his strokeplay on his introduction to Test cricket. It reached a feverish peak when he stepped down the wicket and launched Yasir Shah, who many regard as the world’s leading spinner, back over his head for six. No matter that he was out soon after: it felt as though the future had arrived.
Stat of the day - 5 The last time Sri Lanka played a Test in Dubai – they won here in 2013 – they had four players in their XI who were known as wicketkeepers. This time they have gone one better. Each of Dinesh Chandimal, Kaushal Silva, Samarawickrama, Kusal Mendis, and Niroshan Dickwella – the nominated gloveman here – can keep wicket.
The verdict Sri Lanka want to make history by becoming the first team to beat Pakistan in a full Test series in the UAE. They could not have made a better start, first by winning the toss, then by scoring freely on an easy-paced pitch. The fact Yasir Shah found some turn on Day 1, too, will have interested their own spin bowlers.
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
THE%20SWIMMERS
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Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
RESULTS
6.30pm Handicap (TB) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
7.05pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner: Walton Street, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Switzerland, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Lord Giltters, Adrie de Vries, David O’Meara
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Military Law, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
9.25pm Al Fahidi Fort Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Land Of Legends, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
10pm Dubai Dash Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner Equilateral, Frankie Dettori, Charles Hills.
Company%20Profile
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PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
Mobile phone packages comparison