KABUL // A major international conference in Kabul yesterday appeared to bring closer an end to the nine-year long US-led occupation, with moves confirmed for Afghan forces to take over the country's security in 2014.
Occurring against the backdrop of rising nationwide violence and a growing sense that the Taliban are winning the war, the summit brought together diplomats and foreign ministers from across the world.
It was the largest meeting of its kind here for decades and much of the city was in lockdown as the officials came to show their support for a set of policies that had essentially been decided in advance.
Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, arrived at the event after his flight to Kabul was diverted following a Taliban rocket attack on the airport. No one is believed to have been hurt.
Later, the final communiqué outlined a series of goals that both the government and the international community must try to achieve in a relatively short space of time. Failure to do so is likely to add to discontent at home and abroad.
The most notable of the targets is a gradual handover of security that could begin later this year and will be complete by the end of 2014. That framework for that had already been agreed at a lower-profile Nato gathering in Estonia in April, but yesterday it received the very public endorsement of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai.
After warning that "we face a vicious common enemy", he signalled what may come to be regarded as the beginning of the end of the US-led occupation.
"I remain determined that our Afghan national security forces will be responsible for all military and law enforcement operations throughout our country by 2014," he said.
Among the attendees at the conference were the newly appointed head of US and Nato forces here, Gen David Petraeus, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, and the British foreign minister, William Hague.
The gradual handover of security has been described as conditions based, although it is unclear what criteria will be used to judge those conditions.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Nato secretary general, told delegates the war remained "a mission of necessity" and said it would only end when "the Afghans are able to maintain security on their own". Even then, international forces would have some kind of "supporting role".
The US has insisted that progress is being made but civilian casualties have risen this year and foreign troops are also dying in record numbers. Meanwhile, a recent report by the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office showed there were 1,319 Taliban attacks in June, compared to 1093 at the peak of last year's violence.
On the streets of the capital yesterday there were mixed feelings about the 2014 deadline, which comes on the back of a drawdown in US forces that is due to start next summer.
Mohammed Arif, aged 24, said he did "not believe in the conference because it is not in our hands" and was under the control of foreigners. However, he was worried about what will happen if international troops withdraw too soon. "Our country will be demolished," he said.
Also endorsed in principle at the summit was a plan to reintegrate insurgents who renounce ties to al Qaeda, respect the constitution and eschew violence. So far, the Taliban have rejected any overtures by the Afghan government, demanding an end to the occupation instead.
Hakim Ullah, aged 37 and from the northern province of Badakhshan, said the rebels should be welcomed into the political fold.
"The Taliban and the other groups who are fighting are all Afghans and they have the same rights as us. If there are negotiations with any group, it will be prosperous for Afghanistan," he said.
Security was not the only issue discussed yesterday. Participants agreed to channel at least 50 per cent of aid through the Karzai administration within two years, up from 20 per cent. And the Afghan government vowed to publish and verify the asset declarations for all senior officials and stressed the importance of holding credible parliamentary elections in September.
In a sign of how accustomed to corruption society here has become, Noor Islam, a painter from Nangarhar province, said he would just be happy if even a fraction of donor money trickled down.
"For every $20,000 [Dh73,500] they steal, can they please spend $5,000 of it on ordinary people?" he implored.
csands@thenational.ae
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)