Before his death in 1933, King Feisal of Iraq wrote "with a heart full of sorrow" that there was no such thing as an Iraqi people. The country was made up of "unimaginable masses of human beings, devoid of any patriotic idea, imbued with religious traditions and absurdities, connected by no common tie, giving ear to evil, prone to anarchy, and perpetually ready to rise against any government whatsoever."
If the old king was right, Iraq can only be ruled by a strongman, a new Saddam capable of binding these supposedly anarchic people into a nation. But the British-installed monarch was probably wrong. Maybe he went to his grave misjudging the Iraqis: they just hated having a foreigner imposed on them by a waning colonial power.
Almost 80 years on, the Iraqis have a chance to give their response to King Feisal when they vote in parliamentary elections on Sunday. The result is unpredictable, but there is one thing that everyone can agree on: these elections are crucial to the future of the country and to the US president Barack Obama's plans to withdraw troops after seven years of occupation.
If a strong government emerges - without months of horse-trading between squabbling parties - then it is a fair bet that Mr Obama's plans to remove combat troops by the end of August can proceed. That would leave some 50,000 soldiers behind, in an advisory and training capacity, until 2011. Mr Obama could claim to be fulfilling at least one of his campaign promises.
But almost no one believes in a fairy-tale outcome. For the US military, the president's withdrawal timetable at a time of political uncertainty is a straitjacket. The US military apparently would like an extra brigade to police the contested oil city of Kirkuk, a flashpoint between Kurds and Arabs.
So far the only predictions which have come true are those forecasting a rise in sectarian tensions in the run-up to the poll. Tuesday's triple bombing in Baquba, a particularly devious and shocking attack where the wounded of the first two blasts were blown up in hospital by a third bomber, is testament to this. Undoubtedly for the Americans, life would be easier if the current prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, remained in power.
When Mr al Maliki was named prime minister in 2006, he appeared to foreign observers as weak and tainted by dependence on the Shia religious parties and his long association with Iran. But he ordered the army to crack down on Shia militias. He has benefited from the so-called Awakening of the Anbar province tribes, who decided that the Americans were a lesser evil than the al Qa'eda-linked jihadist bands they had been allied with. All this has transformed Mr al Maliki into an Iraqi nationalist. Under his rule, the near civil war which raged for two years has abated.
To consolidate his political personality, Mr al Maliki broke away from his former allies, the main Shia religious parties, to found the State of Law Coalition. This coalition triumphed in provincial elections last year. But on a national level, he now faces strong opposition from his old allies, now grouped in the Iraqi National Alliance.
Up until a few weeks ago, the story of the election seemed to be one of the decline of sectarianism, the driving force of the 2005 election when people generally voted - or boycotted - on religious lines. Now, with rising tensions, the theme seems to be scare campaigns - that the Baath party is coming back or the state is to be handed over to Iran. These scares will tend to reinforce the sectarian vote.
For some Iraqis a simple narrative explains these twists and turns: in 2003 the Americans wanted to weaken Iraq, so they fanned sectarianism, dividing its people by sect and ethnic affiliation. Once the Americans had decided to leave, they wanted Iraq to stand on its own feet, and so turned Mr al Maliki into a nationalist strongman. Now, according to this narrative, it is the Iranians who want to weaken Iraq, to make it a puppet state, so they prop up the religious vote with scare stories about the Baathists.
This narrative fails to take into account the ludicrously naive faith that Washington had in the concepts of "freedom" and "democracy" which were to cure all Iraq's ills overnight. But the narrative is correct in emphasising the struggle for supremacy between Washington and Tehran. By dint of geography, Iran will always claim an interest in Iraqi affairs, while America is far away.
It is often forgotten that the territory of modern Iraq was, for nine centuries until the Islamic conquest, a province of the Persian empire. In the 1550s it was rescued from falling irrevocably under Iranian influence again by the Ottoman Sultan Suleyman II. Much as the Arab world likes to think of Iraq as a citadel of Arabism, it is destined to be a frontier zone.
One conclusion from this analysis is that democracy ill suits such a fractured and contested country as Iraq. The election seems to be "fixing" something that is not broken. But that is too simplistic. After rivers of blood, two million refugees and 2.7 million internally displaced, Iraqis have had to confront the questions of who they are and where they stand in the world.
No one could claim that this experiment in Iraqi democracy has been worth the suffering caused by the US invasion. Nevertheless, Iraqi politicians have governed by reaching painful consensus on many issues, and this is worth preserving. The alternative would be a new tide of violence. This election may be Iraq's last chance to prove the embittered old king wrong.
@Email:aphilps@thenational.ae
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Match info:
Manchester City 2
Sterling (8'), Walker (52')
Newcastle United 1
Yedlin (30')
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Results
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: Major Cinnamon, Fernando Jara, Mujeeb Rahman
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,900m; Winner: Al Mureib, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Remorse, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
8.15pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Meshakel, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Desert Peace, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m; Winner: Sharamm, Ryan Curatlo, Satish Seemar
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
RESULTS
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PROFILE BOX
Company name: Overwrite.ai
Founder: Ayman Alashkar
Started: Established in 2020
Based: Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai
Sector: PropTech
Initial investment: Self-funded by founder
Funding stage: Seed funding, in talks with angel investors
Company%20Profile
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A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
THE%20FLASH
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Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
Things Heard & Seen
Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, James Norton
2/5
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