Arab world will feel the pain of division in forsaken Sudan



Take a good long look at the map of the Arab world today; the chances are that it's going to change drastically pretty soon. The news in 12 months' time will be the most significant transformation among the 22 Arab nations since Palestine was wiped off the map in 1948. But unlike Palestine, Sudan will probably be split via the ballot box in January 2011. Although the expected schism in Sudan is short on symbolism - there is no Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Nazareth or Jericho - it is no less of a tragedy for Arabs to endure.

Sudan is unlike other Arab countries in many ways. Geographically, at 2.5 million square kilometres in area, it is the largest Arab or African country. It borders nine states including Ethiopia, the source of the vital Blue Nile River, which converges with the White Nile in Sudan and provides drinking water to a third of the Arab world's population on its way to the Mediterranean. This potential breadbasket of the Arab world has been ignored by most in the region. The very few exceptions include the UAE, which is considered the second largest investor in Sudan after China. In 2008 UAE investment there reached US$7 billion (Dh25 billion) in sectors as varied as real estate, telecommunications and agriculture. Other Arab countries that have invested in Sudan's agricultural sector include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Libya, but these remain individual efforts and not collective initiatives.

The reality is that the Arab world has largely forsaken the Sudan, as political differences and personal grudges held against the kleptocratic regime there has blinded us to the bigger picture. Yesterday marked the fifth anniversary of a historic peace treaty signed in Nairobi between the ruling Muslim majority in the north and rebels from the Christian minority in the south, which brought an end to a two-decade bloody conflict that cost the lives of more than 1.5 million people. The cornerstone of the agreement was the referendum due to be held next January, when the autonomous South will vote to either stay part of the country or split into an independent state.

In the five years since the agreement, what has the Arab world done to strengthen the unity of the country? Very little in fact. It is typical for regional governments to pay lip service to "vital matters"; just read the final communiqués from the Arab League summits. There is no substance to what is said or promised or agreed. The decisions are simply words on paper. In Sudan's case it is no differenct. In the final communique of the 2005 Arab League summit, a few weeks after the historic peace treaty, Arab countries vaguely promised to "support the peace, development and unity in Sudan" but offered no concrete action.

What is required is a major investment in the southern part of the country if it is to remain within the Arab world. Job opportunities for southern Sudan's eight million people must be provided along with investments in infrastructure to strengthen the unity of the country. A rail track and motorway network linking the North and the South should have been commissioned within months of the 2005 treaty and could have been finished by today. Vocational and Arabic-language training centres should have been set up in the South and visa permits given to young people to work in richer Arab nations such as the Pan-African champion Libya and the countries of the GCC.

While the South was preparing for the referendum, the North was busy with a tragic conflict in the western region of Darfur, which has resulted in genocide charges filed by the International Criminal Court against the president Omar al Bashir in 2008. Because of the neglect of the Arab world and the policies of the central government in Khartoum, it is most probable that the South will vote to separate from the North. This would result in the country losing control of most of its proven oil reserves.

What can be done today to stop the country's split? Mr al Bashir should, first, refrain from running in April in the country's first multiparty elections in 24 years. His National Congress Party should introduce a clean slate of candidates who are not tainted with corruption and genocide charges. International observers should be brought in to make sure that the election process is free and fair. The Arab League has one last chance to move beyond lip service and save 640,000 square kilometres of territory by introducing a pan-Arab, multibillion dollar fund to invest in the South. The money should be placed this spring in a non-member country's account to be readily available for projects in the South based on the expertise of neutral world agencies.

But of course, this won't happen. Mr al Bashir will run in the elections, and the southern candidates will lose and feel disenfranchised. The Arab states will only pay more lip service to unity at their annual summit in March and Sudan will be split in two, for now. You can bet on it. Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi is a non-resident fellow of the Dubai School of Government sultan.alqassemi@gmail.com

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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

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Started: April 2017

Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport

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Investment: approximately $80 million

Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani

Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now

There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:

1. Rising US interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.

Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”

At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.

2. Stronger dollar

High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.” 

3. Global trade war

Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”

4. Eurozone uncertainty

Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”

The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”

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Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

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Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

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HUNGARIAN GRAND PRIX RESULT

1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 1:39:46.713
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4. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 00:12.885
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7. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 1 lap
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13. Kevin Magnussen, Haas 1 lap
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Sui Dhaaga: Made in India

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Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4

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