Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic
David Quammen
WW Norton & Co
Fear scurried and squeaked its way into the Curry Village tent camp at America's Yosemite National Park in California last August.
Deer mice carrying the deadly hantavirus exposed tourists when they breathed in dust from the rodents' droppings. And the results were frightening: by mid-September nine people had been confirmed ill with the disease; and, tragically, three died. Nor did the danger end there, because thousands visit Yosemite's soaring mountains and cascading waterfalls each summer - and hantavirus's incubation period can last up to five weeks.
Of course with such zoonotic diseases - meaning those that jump to humans from wild animals - the danger never really ends because wildlife can't be controlled.
And, worse, these pathogens are on the rise. This past summer, again in the United States, West Nile virus - causing 1,121 cases and 41 deaths - hit its highest peak ever. From Uganda came reports of at least 20 cases of Ebola, and 14 deaths, including a rare urban case in Kampala that caused widespread panic. In the Middle East, a coronavirus killed a Saudi national and left a Qatari man fighting for his life; and that virus turned out to be a biological cousin to China's Sars epidemic in 2003, which infected 8,098 and killed 774.
Why are we seeing so many clusters of death now? Science writer David Quammen tackles that question in his impressive, big (520-page) book Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic. And the culprit he puts forth for the zoonotic trend is humanity itself.
"We should appreciate that these recent outbreaks of new zoonotic diseases, as well as the recurrence and spread of old ones, are part of a larger pattern," Quammen writes. "Humanity is responsible for generating that pattern. We should recognise that [these outbreaks] reflect things that we're doing, not just things that are happening to us."
What we're "doing" starts with the growth in population - the simple fact of seven billion people on Earth makes us "grotesquely abundant", Quammen says, and available to the six classes of pathogens: viruses, bacteria, protists, fungi, prions and worms - viruses being the worst. Our increased density offers another benefit. So does the fact that "we have penetrated, and we continue to penetrate, the last great forests and other wild ecosystems of the planet, disrupting the physical structures and the ecological communities of such places", he writes.
Shaking the trees makes things fall out, he continues, and exposes us to new dangers. So does eating an ever-expanding list of wild animals; operating factory-style livestock operations; increasing our global imports and exports; travelling more internationally; and altering the global climate with more carbon emissions, which in turn broadens the latitudinal ranges for disease-spreading mosquitoes and ticks. "Evolution seizes opportunity, explores possibilities, and helps convert spillovers to pandemics," the author points out, emphasising that in his view, epidemics are not an act of God.
What makes Spillover (the technical term for the moment when a pathogen passes from one species, as host, into another) particularly compelling is the journey it takes readers on into the rarefied world of disease ecologists, whom Quammen visits across four continents, watching and taking notes as they probe the secrets of Hendra, Ebola, Lyme disease, herpes B, Nipah, Marburg, H5N1 (bird flu) and Aids.
Disease ecologists spend a lot of time pondering how these diseases arise, which animals serve as their reservoirs (the animals that carry pathogens without threat to themselves) and which are their vectors (deer ticks spread Lyme disease, for example). These disease detectives also worry profusely about the Next Big One - the next pandemic - because relatively recently, we've seen Aids kill 30 million, and Spanish flu in 1918-1919 kill up to 50 million (not to forget the Black Death, which in 1348-1350 wiped out more than one third of Europe's population after travelling along the Silk Road from China).
What has kept the human race alive (for now) is the fact that spillover diseases (comprising 60 per cent of the infections affecting us) typically have limited virulence. Ebola, as terrible as it is and was, killed a relatively small number, 224, during its 2000 outbreak in Uganda. Infected humans can be quarantined, and can thus be a "dead-end" host. So Ebola can be contained. But there's still that Next Big One out there, Quammen warns, providing a cautionary tale from his own youth in Montana, where in 1993, an explosion of tent caterpillars - poof - came to a sudden halt. A pathogenic virus had ended them, Quammen notes.
He had to wonder if we would be the next caterpillars.
What makes for great reading here is the author's adventures in the far corners of the globe, where he talks to the frontline researchers, who often work at great personal risk. Tagging along with Quamman, we visit the "monkey temples" of Bali, where macaques frequently interact with tourists, resulting in bites and scratches - virtually all these monkeys carry dangerous herpes B. In China, we learn about the "Era of Wild Flavor", popular at the time of the Sars outbreak, which encouraged Chinese to dine on an eye-popping range of animals, from domestic dogs and cats to toads, lizards, snakes and bamboo rats - not because those eating them were hungry but because it was trendy. Unfortunately, the "wet market" of Guangzhou also sold civets, later discovered to be an "amplifier" of the local Sars outbreak.
In Malaysia, we learn that giant bats taint local date palms with Nipah virus - which humans then pick up when they consume the trees' sweet sap. In Gabon, we hear of 13 gorillas found dead together, probably due to Ebola; we then accompany Quammen through the eerily silent forest, now devoid of the big apes. We learn of 18 people there who became sick after butchering and eating a chimp; and in Cameroon, we hear about a bizarre coming-of-age ritual for boys of the Bakwele tribe that involves cutting off and consuming the arms of chimpanzees - which are often infected with SIVcpz, or simian Aids.
"Throughout the rest of the world you see Aids-education materials crying out: Practice safe sex!" Quammen comments ruefully. "Here [in Cameroon, where public health posters warn against eating bushmeat] the message was 'Don't eat apes!'"
The point, of course, is that there is an intermediary virus that transmutes SIVcpz into human HIV; that intermediary was first found, Quammen notes, in Senegalese prostitutes. In one of the book's most fascinating passages, he relates how researchers genetically tracked the first Aids spillover from a chimp to a human - probably via butchered meat - around 1908. Most people, the author says, don't know that the Aids story didn't begin with American gay men in the 1980s, or in African cities in the 1960s, but "at the headwaters of a jungle river called the Sanga, in southeastern Cameroon, half a century earlier".
The writer tells many such amazing stories about the pathogens that plague us. Who knew that Aids crossed over into Haiti because the Belgians' departure from the Congo caused a mass exit of local professionals that Haitian doctors and teachers were only too happy to fill?
Who knew white-footed mice, not deer, are the most efficient reservoirs for Lyme disease?
Not that deer are blameless in breeding ticks. "A whitetail in the woods of Connecticut during November is like a teeming singles' bar in lower Manhattan on Friday night," Quammen writes, in one of the many witticisms he injects to make his survey of death and destruction more digestible. He's particularly jovial explaining dry scientific concepts like the particle hypothesis of disease, density theory, and something called R0 (the reproduction rate of new infections from an infected individual). Some of his jokes take flight; some fall flat.
But, in the end, there's nothing funny about the horrors of bloody Ebola or the pandemic threat posed by the H5N1 bird flu. Spillover is a grave and scary book, enough to make us put our affairs in order and kiss our loved ones goodbye. Enough to make us hope that the Next Big One doesn't occur anytime soon.
Joan Oleck is a freelance writer based in Brooklyn, New York.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
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Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
if you go
The flights
Fly to Rome with Etihad (www.etihad.ae) or Emirates (www.emirates.com) from Dh2,480 return including taxes. The flight takes six hours. Fly from Rome to Trapani with Ryanair (www.ryanair.com) from Dh420 return including taxes. The flight takes one hour 10 minutes.
The hotels
The author recommends the following hotels for this itinerary. In Trapani, Ai Lumi (www.ailumi.it); in Marsala, Viacolvento (www.viacolventomarsala.it); and in Marsala Del Vallo, the Meliaresort Dimore Storiche (www.meliaresort.it).
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
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Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Timeline
1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line
1962
250 GTO is unveiled
1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company
1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens
1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made
1987
F40 launched
1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent
2002
The Enzo model is announced
2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi
2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled
2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives
2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company
2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street
2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Williams at Wimbledon
Venus Williams - 5 titles (2000, 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2008)
Serena Williams - 7 titles (2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2016)
The%20Little%20Mermaid%20
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Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Opening weekend Premier League fixtures
Weekend of August 10-13
Arsenal v Manchester City
Bournemouth v Cardiff City
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Huddersfield Town v Chelsea
Liverpool v West Ham United
Manchester United v Leicester City
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur
Southampton v Burnley
Watford v Brighton & Hove Albion
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
SPEC%20SHEET
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What should do investors do now?
What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor?
Should I be euphoric?
No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.
So what happened?
It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.
"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."
Should I buy? Should I sell?
Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.
"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.
All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.
Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.
Will the rally last?
No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.
"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key fixtures from January 5-7
Watford v Bristol City
Liverpool v Everton
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth v AFC Fylde or Wigan
Coventry v Stoke City
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Manchester United v Derby
Forest Green or Exeter v West Brom
Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon
Fleetwood or Hereford v Leicester City
Manchester City v Burnley
Shrewsbury v West Ham United
Wolves v Swansea City
Newcastle United v Luton Town
Fulham v Southampton
Norwich City v Chelsea
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Match statistics
Dubai Sports City Eagles 8 Dubai Exiles 85
Eagles
Try: Bailey
Pen: Carey
Exiles
Tries: Botes 3, Sackmann 2, Fourie 2, Penalty, Walsh, Gairn, Crossley, Stubbs
Cons: Gerber 7
Pens: Gerber 3
Man of the match: Tomas Sackmann (Exiles)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
RESULTS
5pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner Thabet Al Reef, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Blue Diamond, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6.30pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Shoja’A Muscat, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Heros De Lagarde, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
Winner Good Tidings, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The 15 players selected
Muzzamil Afridi, Rahman Gul, Rizwan Haider (Dezo Devils); Shahbaz Ahmed, Suneth Sampath (Glory Gladiators); Waqas Gohar, Jamshaid Butt, Shadab Ahamed (Ganga Fighters); Ali Abid, Ayaz Butt, Ghulam Farid, JD Mahesh Kumara (Hiranni Heros); Inam Faried, Mausif Khan, Ashok Kumar (Texas Titans
