Risk and reward go hand in hand in investing. Sure, the more risk you take, the more volatile your portfolio's performance will be.
But history and theory also tell us that gambles pay off in the long run, giving daredevils bigger returns than scaredy-cats who stick to safer assets.
Just look at the figures: the Russell 2000, an index of small US stocks, has gained an average of 9.58 per cent a year since 1982. That is better than the stocks of large companies in the US and Europe, and far better than corporate bonds, which have long-term returns of about four per cent.
It may sound surprising at first that grandma's "slow and steady wins the race" motto does not apply to investing, but it makes sense: investors ought to be rewarded in the long term for buying riskier assets. If there were no "risk premium", there would be little point in buying these assets. And yet people do buy them - lots of them.
As investors across the globe have been reminded recently, taking risks does come with downsides. The global credit crunch and the US subprime housing crisis have pummeled stock markets and led many once-bullish investors to rethink their attitudes towards assets with long odds. Prices for US Treasuries have skyrocketed recently, pushing yields down as investors piled into the world's safest assets. A survey this month of high-net-worth investors conducted by Barclays Wealth and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) found that 61 per cent of Australian investors and 51 per cent of Americans said they would sell some assets and convert to cash in a period of economic volatility such as the one under way.
That is a surprising statistic. When more than half of investors say they will move into cash, not content even with the safety of short-term corporate bonds or government debt, fear is unquestionably in the air. And while the Barclays/EIU survey can easily be pigeonholed as a commercially driven effort to put the bank's name in the press and get a read on its target clientele, it does tell a disturbing story about investor behaviour that people in the UAE might want to listen to.
That is because just as the financial crisis is striking fear into the hearts of investors in the West, their peers in the UAE are prepared to take a few risks. Among the 15 countries the Barclays survey included, the UAE ranked first on all the big "are you taking risks" questions. When asked whether they would increase the level of risk-taking in their portfolios during a period of volatility, a stunning 43 per cent of respondents from the UAE said yes. And when asked whether they would be likely to switch fund managers and change investing strategies when volatility hits, 48 per cent from the UAE said they would.
If it is true that taking risks brings returns, you might think this bodes well for UAE investors. To some extent, that is correct: if investors in the UAE continue to take risks and put their money into stocks as they decline in price, historically they have a good chance of coming out on top. "Value" investing, a discipline that seeks cheap deals in stocks and other assets, has outperformed other investment strategies in developed markets over long stretches of time, suggesting that the simple pursuit of cheapness has merit as an investment strategy. The Standard & Poor's 500 has returned roughly nine per cent per year during the past 30-odd years, but the cheap stocks in the index gave a return closer to 10 per cent a year. That might seem like a small difference, but spread over 30 years, it is huge. Investing Dh10,000 with nine per cent returns gives you about Dh133,000 after 30 years. At 10 per cent, you end up with close to Dh175,000.
But taking risks can also go too far when it veers into speculation, a form of gambling in which the bonds between risk and reward dissolve. In this respect, the finding that nearly half of high-net-worth investors in the UAE would likely switch investing strategies during a volatile period is a bit concerning. The full fruits of risky behaviour can be realised only when investors stick to their guns over a long time. If you toy with your investments, diving after every fad and bailing out at the first sign of trouble, you will never stay in long enough for the risk you are taking to be rewarded.
If, for example, you invested in US stocks in December of 1972, you might have thought you had made a bad move and pulled out two years later, by which time the Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 40 per cent. If you had stayed in for 20 years, though, your original investment would have almost quadrupled in value, despite your initial losses.
It also does not hurt to remember that although they may seem to drag on for ages, downturns in stock markets do not last long. In the US, the previous two stock market corrections lasted between four and 19 months. Investors can easily miss part of the recovery if they keep fiddling with their portfolio. And adding to the pitfalls of a quick trigger finger, the more changes that are made to a portfolio's allocations and investments, the more trading fees there are, which eat into the returns.
The moral: the best bet is to stay put, which many investors in the UAE apparently are not doing.
Lest we indict the country's investors too quickly, though, it is important to bear in mind that people in the markets here also face a unique set of challenges that encourage riskier than usual investing. First, rising oil revenues have injected a lot of cash into the country's financial system and investors have plenty of spare money to deploy. Second, inflation is rife - it stood at 11.1 per cent last year, according to official figures - and investors are compelled to take on more risk if they are to get inflation-beating returns.
These forces, I suspect, largely explain the results of the Barclays survey. It isn't that investors here are risk-aholics by nature; rather, it is that the UAE's out-of-whack economy has made risky investing almost necessary.
Yet despite all the evidence of risky investing behaviour divulged in the Barclays survey, one statistic stood out as proof that the UAE's investing class is getting a little less risk-happy. While property has been a popular destination for the spare cash of UAE investors in previous years, the appetite for these hard assets has apparently died down in a big way. Asked whether they would increase their allocation to property in the next year, only 36 per cent of wealthy UAE investors said they would. A greater proportion of investors from Singapore, India, China and even the US said they would put more money into property investments.
Investors in the UK, meanwhile, might want to borrow a lesson or two from the UAE. The UK emerged in the Barclays survey as the most conservative nation sampled, where investors were among the least likely to increase risk-taking and came in last on the property investment question. But perhaps that is not too surprising. Amid the global financial turmoil, home prices in that country fell 1.2 per cent in June, and have shed more than three per cent in the past year.
@afitch@thenational.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Emiratisation at work
Emiratisation was introduced in the UAE more than 10 years ago
It aims to boost the number of citizens in the workforce particularly in the private sector.
Growing the number of Emiratis in the workplace will help the UAE reduce dependence on overseas workers
The Cabinet in December last year, approved a national fund for Emirati jobseekers and guaranteed citizens working in the private sector a comparable pension
President Sheikh Khalifa has described Emiratisation as “a true measure for success”.
During the UAE’s 48th National Day, Sheikh Khalifa named education, entrepreneurship, Emiratisation and space travel among cornerstones of national development
More than 80 per cent of Emiratis work in the federal or local government as per 2017 statistics
The Emiratisation programme includes the creation of 20,000 new jobs for UAE citizens
UAE citizens will be given priority in managerial positions in the government sphere
The purpose is to raise the contribution of UAE nationals in the job market and create a diverse workforce of citizens
Company%20Profile
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McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Dunki
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rajkumar%20Hirani%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Taapsee%20Pannu%2C%20Vikram%20Kochhar%20and%20Anil%20Grover%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
The%20specs
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Company%20profile
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Off-roading in the UAE: How to checklist
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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THE SPECS – Honda CR-V Touring AWD
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Power: 184hp at 6,400rpm
Torque: 244Nm at 3,900rpm
Transmission: Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
0-100kmh in 9.4 seconds
Top speed: 202kmh
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
Price: From Dh122,900
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The%20specs
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'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
Company%20Profile
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Itcan profile
Founders: Mansour Althani and Abdullah Althani
Based: Business Bay, with offices in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India
Sector: Technology, digital marketing and e-commerce
Size: 70 employees
Revenue: On track to make Dh100 million in revenue this year since its 2015 launch
Funding: Self-funded to date
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company%20Profile
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EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
OIL PLEDGE
At the start of Russia's invasion, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry, according to the agency's website. The two collective actions of the IEA this year of 62.7 million barrels, which was agreed on March 1, and this week's 120 million barrels amount to 9 per cent of total emergency reserves, it added.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The specs: 2017 Maserati Quattroporte
Price, base / as tested Dh389,000 / Dh559,000
Engine 3.0L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 530hp @ 6,800rpm
Torque 650Nm @ 2,000 rpm
Fuel economy, combined 10.7L / 100km
NEW%20PRICING%20SCHEME%20FOR%20APPLE%20MUSIC%2C%20TV%2B%20AND%20ONE
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In The Heights
Directed by: Jon M. Chu
Stars: Anthony Ramos, Lin-Manual Miranda
Rating: ****
Company%20Profile
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Elvis
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Baz%20Luhrmann%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Austin%20Butler%2C%20Tom%20Hanks%2C%20Olivia%20DeJonge%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The%C2%A0specs%20
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The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
BEACH SOCCER WORLD CUP
Group A
Paraguay
Japan
Switzerland
USA
Group B
Uruguay
Mexico
Italy
Tahiti
Group C
Belarus
UAE
Senegal
Russia
Group D
Brazil
Oman
Portugal
Nigeria
FULL%20RESULTS
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Company%20profile
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Guardians%20of%20the%20Galaxy%20Vol%203
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)