ABU DHABI // Robot soldiers, laser guns and ultrasonic weapons that use sound to stun at a distance.
This is the battlefield of the future and it is only years away, according to a top UK defence expert.
But increasing connectivity brings more risks and military technology will become more accessible to terrorists by 2045, warned Simon Cole of the UK’s ministry of defence.
“We will see more unmanned systems as they are becoming more capable,” said Dr Cole, the assistant head at the ministry’s development, concepts and doctrine centre.
“They won’t just be confined to the air environment and some experts reckon that, in the next ten years, robots are likely to replace infantry soldiers. That may seem slightly far-fetched, but one thing technology does is rise quickly.”
Human beings, however, will still play a role.
“It will be people who decide to go to war,” he said at an Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research talk in the capital on Tuesday. “But for richer, technologically-advanced countries, it will probably be less likely for them to use people to fight in war. Humans will slowly be removed from the battlefield.”
Turning to the rise of data and the internet, Dr Cole said concealing military information would become tougher.
“Military technology is likely to spread through the internet and non-state actors are likely to have access to advanced weaponry in a way that hasn’t been done [before].
“So, for submarines trying to hide in the depths, you can imagine a world where the oceans are full of sensors detecting salinity and environmental conditions – so it will be a much more difficult world to hide in,” he said.
But as the world becomes more connected, it is thought state agencies would also be able to find more terrorists. “It will be a sort of cat-and-mouse game,” Dr Cole said.
“Western nations will see a loss of their military technological edge, such as the US. China and other parts of Asia will start having more of an edge.”
Novel and advanced weapons are also expected to be deployed in future wars.
“Already lasers have proven to be able to intercept artillery shells and unmanned systems.
“We will see the development of sound weapons that can engage much more precisely, as well as non-lethal techniques where you can use lasers to stun an opponent at a considerable distance.”
The ability to target individuals is a growing trend that will continue to 2045.
“It will be increasingly easier to find individuals, not only through DNA, but through digital signatures,” Dr Cole said. “Technology will change our relationships as robots get more effective.”
But conflict will endure and the risk of a global outbreak in the next 30 years cannot be ruled out, he cautioned, “especially when you have emerging great powers like India and China”.
“But deaths due to violence are decreasing and we expect that to continue. However, we, as thinkers and leaders, have the opportunity to influence that future and those countries and organisations that are resilient, adaptable and flexible to change are likely to thrive.”
Ahmed Al Astad, the research centre’s deputy director general for community service, said the international environment was constantly evolving.
“This comes within a complicated and interrelated context that requires a close follow-up of changes,” he said. “We have to build scenarios to forecast the future dimensions of defence and politics and how to deal with them.”
Dr Cole’s talk, “Global Strategic trends: Challenges and Opportunities out to 2045” is part a continuing series of events on defence, security and doctrine at the centre in Abu Dhabi.
cmalek@thenational.ae
Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
