Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine
Almost four weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nato said it is concerned that Russia will use chemical weapons in a "false flag" attack.
Warnings about Russia's possible use of a false flag operation were sounded before the war even began – the term itself traces its origins back to the Second World War.
"We are concerned Moscow could stage a false flag operation in Ukraine, possibly with chemical weapons," Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday.
A pretext to attack
On February 17, a week before the invasion, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the United Nations Security Council that Russia had plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack on Ukraine.
This, he said, could be done through a false flag attack whereby one party, in this case Russia, would carry out an attack to make it look as if Ukraine was the perpetrator. The faked attack could give Russia the casus belli, or case for war against Ukraine.
Mr Blinken said this could come in the form of a "fabricated, so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia", or the discovery of a mass grave.
More alarmingly, he said, the false flag could come in the form of a very real chemical attack against Russian civilians.
Now, weeks after Russia moved militarily against Ukraine, Nato is making the same warnings.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said last week that such a move would be "straight out of the Russian playbook".
“They start saying that there are chemical weapons that are being stored by their opponents or by the Americans, so that when they themselves deploy chemical weapons – as I fear they may – they have a fake story ready to go," he said. Mr Johnson appears to have been referring to incidents in Syria where the Russians warned that Syrian rebel groups were about to use chemical weapons, only for Russia's Syrian allies to use them first in populated areas, killing thousands of civilians.
Origins
In 1939, Nazi operatives dressed as Polish soldiers stormed the German Gleiwitz radio tower on the border with Poland. In what was a classic false flag operation, the Nazis broadcast an anti-German message and even killed a farmer known for being a Polish sympathiser. German soldiers also shot Jewish political prisoners dressed in Polish uniforms in order to fake the scene of a clash.
This, with other incidents, set the scene for an attack on Poland that began the day after the Gleiwitz attack.
In Japan, eight years before Gleiwitz, Japanese military personnel detonated dynamite near a Japanese-owned railway line. The Imperial Japanese Army accused Chinese saboteurs of carrying out the deed. Shortly after, Japan invaded Manchuria, in response to the railway incident.
The term itself originates from the 16th century, when pirates flew flags of friendly nations to deceive their enemies, allowing them to approach closer than they would have otherwise done.
Russia-Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, together known as Donbas, an independent region the night before he launched attacks on Ukraine.
But in the run-up to this fateful announcement, the Russian government broadcast a slew of media campaigns that painted Ukraine as planning for war.
Social media sleuths pored over the videos released and found several inconsistencies that discredited the Russian claims of Ukrainian aggression on Donbas.
A Twitter thread by Live Universal Awareness Map (Liveuamap), a global news and information site to track crises in real time, detailed numerous occasions of such false claims by the Russian government in the lead-up to February 24, the day of the invasion.
False flag operations by any side in the run-up to, or during war, could have momentous effects for decades to come and could influence the willingness of other countries to use similar methods of deception.
But any armies attempting to conduct false flag operations would be wise to consider international law. The Geneva Convention, which governs the conduct of armies in wartime, says that operations where one side pretends to be their adversary and thereby sows confusion are prohibited.
“It is prohibited to make use of the flags or military emblems, insignia or uniforms of adverse parties while engaging in attacks," the convention says. In a separate article, it says that this also applies to using the uniforms and symbols of "neutral or other states not parties to the conflict".
The convention says countries doing this may do so "to shield, favour, protect or impede military operations”.
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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