NEW YORK // Myanmar's announcement that it will release political prisoners before elections next year has fuelled the optimism of the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, that his recent trip to the south-east Asian country was not a wasted journey.
But analysts warn the secretary general to treat the ruling junta's words with caution, saying Myanmar's generals are unlikely to free dissidents and have little interest in embracing political reforms.
Myanmar's opposition party said yesterday it, too, was sceptical the military rulers would release political prisoners, despite the new assurances given to the UN.
Addressing the Security Council on Monday, Myanmar's ambassador to the UN, Than Swe, said his government is "processing to grant amnesty to prisoners on humanitarian grounds and with a view to enabling them to participate in the 2010 general elections".
The envoy did not say how many prisoners would be released, or when, or whether they would include the country's most notable dissident: the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi.
Mr Ban described the junta's pledge as "encouraging", but cautiously added he would "have to continue to follow up how they will implement all the issues raised" during his visit of July 3 and 4.
Mr Ban's second trip to Myanmar since becoming UN secretary general was initially branded a failure after his request to meet Ms Suu Kyi in person was rejected by the junta, which has ruled the country since 1962.
His request to free all political prisoners, including Ms Suu Kyi, who is currently on trial, also appeared to have failed when he flew out of the country, complaining he was "deeply disappointed" by the visit.
Although analysts recognise the junta is now committed to freeing some of its dissidents - estimated to number about 2,100 - they also point to Myanmar's track record in deceiving its critics.
"We've seen these kinds of promises before," said Elaine Pearson, an Asia expert for the advocacy group, Human Rights Watch. "If it's legitimate, that would be good news. But in the past we have seen them release 6,000 prisoners, of which only a handful have been political, and some of those were rearrested within weeks."
Nyan Win, a spokesman for the National League for Democracy, Ms Suu Kyi's party, said: "We would welcome it if they released political prisoners in an amnesty, but very few political prisoners have been included in previous amnesties."
Suzanne DiMaggio, a policy expert from the New York-based Asia Society, described the likelihood of the generals' follow-through on their promise as "a big if", but urged Mr Ban to continue his trademark style of quiet diplomacy.
"Mr Ban's personal intervention is of the utmost importance," said Ms DiMaggio, highlighting the UN chief's success in persuading the junta to permit the entry of foreign aid workers after Cyclone Nargis, which left 150,000 dead in May last year.
During this week's briefing to the Security Council, Mr Ban called again on the generals to ensure "inclusive, free and fair" elections next year, later asking them to allow Ms Suu Kyi to take part.
"The world is now watching closely whether they will choose to act in the best interest of their country or ignore our concerns and expectations and the needs of their people," Mr Ban said.
Ms Suu Kyi was transferred from her lakeside home to Yangon's notorious Insein prison in May to face trial after a man swam uninvited to the property, and faces up to five years in jail if convicted.
Ms Suu Kyi, 64, has been under house arrest or in detention for 13 of 19 years since the junta refused to recognise her party's landslide victory in Myanmar's last elections, in 1990.
Critics say next year's elections, the final part of a seven-step "road map" to democracy, will be a sham designed to give legitimacy to the current authorities and entrench nearly half a century of army rule in the country.
Ms Pearson said Myanmar's rulers have continued cracking down on political activists, notably monks and students during the so-called Saffron Revolution of 2007. They already have the election "sewn up", with one-quarter of the seats reserved for the military, she added.
The Security Council remains deadlocked on Myanmar, with the permanent veto-wielding member China preventing the 15-nation body from taking decisive action. Analysts also argue that such key Myanmar trading partners as India and Singapore should exert diplomatic pressure.
"It's time for Security Council members to speak with the same voice and call for the release of all political prisoners," Ms Pearson said. "We need to look at other measures that will force the generals to the negotiating table, including targeted financial sanctions against leading members of the regime."
jreinl@thenational.ae
* Additional reporting by AFP
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 3 (Sterling 46', De Bruyne 65', Gundogan 70')
Aston Villa 0
Red card: Fernandinho (Manchester City)
Man of the Match: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16. first leg
Atletico Madrid v Juventus, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Last 10 winners of African Footballer of the Year
2006: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2007: Frederic Kanoute (Sevilla and Mali)
2008: Emmanuel Adebayor (Arsenal and Togo)
2009: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2010: Samuel Eto’o (Inter Milan and Cameroon)
2011: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2012: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2013: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2014: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2015: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Borussia Dortmund and Gabon)
2016: Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City and Algeria)
Scores
Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool
Arsenal 1-0 Huddersfield Town
Burnley 1-0 Brighton
Manchester United 4-1 Fulham
West Ham 3-2 Crystal Palace
Saturday fixtures:
Chelsea v Manchester City, 9.30pm (UAE)
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur, 11.45pm (UAE)
Brief scores:
Manchester City 3
Bernardo Silva 16', Sterling 57', Gundogan 79'
Bournemouth 1
Wilson 44'
Man of the match: Leroy Sane (Manchester City)
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
Not Dark Yet
Shelby Lynne and Allison Moorer
Four stars
MATCH INFO
Wales 1 (Bale 45 3')
Croatia 1 (Vlasic 09')
Day 3 stumps
New Zealand 153 & 249
Pakistan 227 & 37-0 (target 176)
Pakistan require another 139 runs with 10 wickets remaining
Match info:
Manchester City 2
Sterling (8'), Walker (52')
Newcastle United 1
Yedlin (30')
The Light of the Moon
Director: Jessica M Thompson
Starring: Stephanie Beatriz, Michael Stahl-David
Three stars
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raha%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kuwait%2FSaudi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tech%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2414%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Soor%20Capital%2C%20eWTP%20Arabia%20Capital%2C%20Aujan%20Enterprises%2C%20Nox%20Management%2C%20Cedar%20Mundi%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20166%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel
Women’s T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier
ICC Academy, November 22-28
UAE fixtures
Nov 22, v Malaysia
Nov 23, v Hong Kong
Nov 25, v Bhutan
Nov 26, v Kuwait
Nov 28, v Nepal
ICC T20I rankings
14. Nepal
17. UAE
25. Hong Kong
34. Kuwait
35. Malaysia
44. Bhutan
UAE squad
Chaya Mughal (captain), Natasha Cherriath, Samaira Dharnidharka, Kavisha Egodage, Mahika Gaur, Priyanjali Jain, Suraksha Kotte, Vaishnave Mahesh, Judit Peter, Esha Rohit, Theertha Satish, Chamani Seneviratne, Khushi Sharma, Subha Venkataraman
ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon
Bridgerton%20season%20three%20-%20part%20one
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicola%20Coughlan%2C%20Luke%20Newton%2C%20Jonathan%20Bailey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What should do investors do now?
What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor?
Should I be euphoric?
No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.
So what happened?
It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.
"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."
Should I buy? Should I sell?
Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.
"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.
All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.
Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.
Will the rally last?
No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.
"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."
SCORES
Yorkshire Vikings 144-1 in 12.5 overs
(Tom Kohler 72 not out, Harry Broook 42 not out)
bt Hobart Hurricanes 140-7 in 20 overs
(Caleb Jewell 38, Sean Willis 35, Karl Carver 2-29, Josh Shaw 2-39)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final:
First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2
Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)
Other key dates
-
Finals draw: December 2
-
Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
-
Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
-
Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
MATCH INFO
Karnataka Tuskers 110-5 (10 ovs)
Tharanga 48, Shafiq 34, Rampaul 2-16
Delhi Bulls 91-8 (10 ovs)
Mathews 31, Rimmington 3-28
Karnataka Tuskers win by 19 runs
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
RESULT
West Brom 2 Liverpool 2
West Brom: Livermore (79'), Rondón (88' )
Liverpool: Ings (4'), Salah (72')
