ISLAMABAD // Pakistan's powerful army holds the key to whether Pervez Musharraf can survive the threat of impeachment by his foes in the ruling coalition, some analysts say.
With the impeachment process against the president set to begin in parliament tomorrow, they believe Mr Musharraf will be looking for signals from Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the enigmatic man who succeeded him as army chief in November.
If he gets Gen Kayani's backing, Mr Musharraf could dissolve parliament or even declare emergency rule. If he does not, he will be under pressure to quit before enduring the humiliation of being impeached.
"The only option he has for survival is to get the support of the army chief," said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a security and political analyst.
The announcement of impeachment plans by the coalition leaders, Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, on Thursday left Mr Musharraf facing the most serious challenge since he seized power in a military coup nine years ago.
Farhatullah Babar, a spokesman for Mr Zardari's Pakistan People's Party, confirmed yesterday that the national assembly, or lower house of parliament, has been summoned tomorrow afternoon to begin the process to impeach the president.
Mr Musharraf's allies say the former special forces commando will fight back. "He will defend himself and we feel that he will have a lot of support within the parliament," said Mushahid Hussain, the secretary general of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, a pro-Musharraf party.
They say Mr Musharraf believes that the coalition cannot get the two-thirds combined majority it needs in the upper and lower chambers of parliament to turf him out of office.
It currently has 266 of the required 295 MPs and is counting on persuading independents.
But Mr Musharraf might decide not to take the risk on a vote, and could opt instead for a pre-emptive strike.
Under the highly controversial Article 58-2B of the Pakistani constitution, he has the power to dissolve the five-month-old national assembly. The constitution also allows him to declare a state of emergency as he did in November.
Either step would require the full backing of the army. Yet while the military has ruled over Pakistan for more than half its 61-year history, analysts have said Mr Musharraf cannot rely on Gen Kayani to do his bidding. "Kayani has made it very clear he would like to keep the army distant from politics," said Farzana Shaikh, a Pakistan expert at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
Gen Kayani is also credited with ensuring the fairness of general elections in February, in which Mr Musharraf's allies suffered a crushing defeat. "Kayani is concerned with the image of the army in recent months has been soiled and tarnished also by the fighting Islamic militants in the tribal areas," Ms Shaikh said.
The chain-smoking Gen Kayani remains a shadowy figure. As a former chief of Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, he has never given an interview.
Mr Musharraf, who by contrast has always been bluff and media-friendly, is said to have appointed him as his successor because of his discretion, loyalty and dedication to the army.
But reports emerged last month of the general having long meetings with Mr Musharraf to discuss his future. A meeting on Thursday and Friday of Pakistan's Corps Commanders, chaired by Gen Kayani, sparked further speculation, although officials said it had already been scheduled.
"The whole meeting they will definitely have been talking about the situation inside Pakistan," Mr Rizvi said.
Analysts said that if Gen Kayani backed the dissolution of the parliament it would be highly unpopular and possibly result in violent protests.
"An alternative scenario would be for General Kayani to prevail on Musharraf to make a graceful exit that would allow for the installation of a new president," said Lisa Curtis, a research fellow, in a commentary for the Washington-based Heritage Foundation.
Mr Musharraf has previously said he would not quit, but Gen Kayani may make it clear it is unacceptable for a former army chief to drag the military's name through the mud in an impeachment imbroglio.
"If the army does move, it would not move so much in terms of a takeover bid against the president, but will perhaps try to prevail on Musharraf to step down himself," Ms Shaikh said. The US has so far refused to help its key ally in its "war on terror", to whom it has given billions of dollars in military aid, saying only that the impeachment is an internal matter.
One last hope for Mr Musharraf may be to try to drag out the situation in a bid to prolong his grip on power. He could fight impeachment in the Supreme Court - the only institution on which he can rely, having stacked it with loyal judges during a state of emergency in November.
"He will very likely spin it out over the next weeks and months," Ms Shaikh said.
But the ultimate decision may not be the president's to make, analysts said.
"Musharraf's fate and the future direction of Pakistan is largely in the hands of General Kayani," Ms Curtis said.
* The National
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In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
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Pupils to learn coding and other vocational skills from Grade 6
Exams to test critical thinking and application of knowledge
A new National Assessment Centre, PARAKH (Performance, Assessment, Review and Analysis for Holistic Development) will form the standard for schools
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Business Insights
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Tell-tale signs of burnout
- loss of confidence and appetite
- irritability and emotional outbursts
- sadness
- persistent physical ailments such as headaches, frequent infections and fatigue
- substance abuse, such as smoking or drinking more
- impaired judgement
- excessive and continuous worrying
- irregular sleep patterns
Tips to help overcome burnout
Acknowledge how you are feeling by listening to your warning signs. Set boundaries and learn to say ‘no’
Do activities that you want to do as well as things you have to do
Undertake at least 30 minutes of exercise per day. It releases an abundance of feel-good hormones
Find your form of relaxation and make time for it each day e.g. soothing music, reading or mindful meditation
Sleep and wake at the same time every day, even if your sleep pattern was disrupted. Without enough sleep condition such as stress, anxiety and depression can thrive.
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Buy farm-fresh food
The UAE is stepping up its game when it comes to platforms for local farms to show off and sell their produce.
In Dubai, visit Emirati Farmers Souq at The Pointe every Saturday from 8am to 2pm, which has produce from Al Ammar Farm, Omar Al Katri Farm, Hikarivege Vegetables, Rashed Farms and Al Khaleej Honey Trading, among others.
In Sharjah, the Aljada residential community will launch a new outdoor farmers’ market every Friday starting this weekend. Manbat will be held from 3pm to 8pm, and will host 30 farmers, local home-grown entrepreneurs and food stalls from the teams behind Badia Farms; Emirates Hydroponics Farms; Modern Organic Farm; Revolution Real; Astraea Farms; and Al Khaleej Food.
In Abu Dhabi, order farm produce from Food Crowd, an online grocery platform that supplies fresh and organic ingredients directly from farms such as Emirates Bio Farm, TFC, Armela Farms and mother company Al Dahra.
