US relations on the agenda for Pakistan's new spy chief



ISLAMABAD // Pakistan's new spymaster faces a tough task fixing ever-worsening ties with the United States, but analysts say he is unlikely to reform an institution accused of helping militants in Afghanistan.

Yusuf Raza Gilani, the prime minister, on Friday appointed Lieutenant Gen Zaheer ul-Islam as the new chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, the main spy arm of the Pakistani military, ending weeks of speculation he would extend the term of Lieutenant Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, due to retire on March 18.

Under Gen Pasha, relations between Pakistan and the US have hit a low, especially after American forces located and killed Osama bin Laden in the military town of Abbottabad in May, without warning Pakistan of the raid.

US air strikes killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at two border posts in November, prompting Islamabad to block supplies for US and Nato-led troops in Afghanistan shipping through Pakistan.

Gen Islam's appointment came days before parliament opens a debate reviewing ties with the US but analysts say the review is mainly for the powerful military and its intelligence wing to lay down the ground rules for working with Washington.

The military is the single most powerful institution in Pakistan and has ruled the country for half of its existence.

"The main challenge for the new ISI chief is the relationship with the United States. His input is pivotal in reviving these ties," said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based analyst.

Analysts say Gen Islam's appointment may do little to change the powerful ISI, but may open new opportunities for improving ties with the US.

"General [Islam] is likely to facilitate dialogue with the United States because Pasha's position had become somewhat static. General [Islam] does not carry that baggage and can show more flexibility in talks," Mr Rizvi said.

But that is unlikely to see an immediate sea change given the state of distrust between Islamabad and Washington.

The US suspects that the ISI keeps ties with militant groups that have attacked foreign and Afghan forces in a bid to secure its interests in Afghanistan once foreign forces leave that country.

With a hostile and more powerful neighbour, India, to the east, Pakistan is particularly anxious about developments in Afghanistan, especially as the border cuts through tribal areas where ethnic loyalty is more important than national identity.

"The mutual suspicion between the two sides is so intense that one should not expect a complete change of tide especially since the newly appointed chief is an established military figure," the Express Tribune newspaper said in its editorial on Sunday, referring to Pakistan-US ties.

Given the ISI's perceived influence over the militants, Gen Islam, who was a deputy head of the IS from 2008-2010I, is expected to play an important role in persuading the Afghan Taliban to join talks to end the war in Afghanistan.

Another challenge for Gen Islam is quelling a growing tide of the home-grown Islamist militants who have killed thousands of people, including several ISI officials, in a growing problem fuelled by instability in Afghanistan and the unpopular involvement of the US in the region.

Gen Islam's appointment comes at a time when the ISI is coming under increasing scrutiny at home as well.

Dubbed by critics as a "state within a state", politicians have long accused the ISI of political meddling.

Last week, a former ISI head, Asad Durrani, admitted in the Supreme Court that he had distributed millions of rupees among the opposition politicians in 1990 on the instructions of the then army chief Gen Aslam Beg to stop the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto from coming to power. Bhutto, the twice-elected twice-dismissed prime minister and the wife of the sitting president Asif Ali Zardari, was killed in a suicide attack in December 2007.

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How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
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UPI facts

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The specs

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A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
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