Paul, the octopus oracle, predicts a victory for Spain in tomorrow's World Cup final. Offers for post-tournament work have flooded in for the resident of the Oberhausen Sea Life aquarium.
Paul, the octopus oracle, predicts a victory for Spain in tomorrow's World Cup final. Offers for post-tournament work have flooded in for the resident of the Oberhausen Sea Life aquarium.

Bright future predicted for pundit Paul, the octopus oracle, after final picks



There's been plenty of ink for Paul the Octopus lately, and why not? The octopus, also known as the "Oracle of Oberhausen," has successfully predicted the winner of six World Cup matches so far. Now, Paul has forecast the winner of Sunday's final match. And rather than go out on a limb - or maybe eight of them - Paul is sticking with the favourite, picking Spain over Holland. Handlers of the two-and-a-half-year-old floppy octopus - a resident of the Oberhausen Sea Life aquarium - usually have him make predictions only for games in which Germany plays. But because of Paul's recent worldwide fame and demand for his pick for the final, they made an exception.

Here's how the seer sucker makes his prognostications: officials put a mussel inside each of two clear plastic boxes bearing the national flags of the teams in his tank. Paul then makes his choice by opening the lid with his tentacles and devouring one of the treats. Millions across Europe, in Taiwan and elsewhere watched a live TV broadcast yesterday of his choice of Spain, complete with breathless commentary. He also predicted Germany over Uruguay in Saturday's third-place game.

Paul has received business proposals, has thousands of Facebook fans and even has the attention of world leaders. Animal rights group Peta wants him freed. Many Germans - upset that he correctly picked Spain over Germany in Wednesday's semi-final - want him fried. "Paul is such a professional oracle - he doesn't even care that hundreds of journalists are watching and commenting on every move he makes," said Stefan Porwoll, the Sea Life aquarium manager. "We're so proud of him."

After his prediction of his home country's loss came true, German TV showed footage of a grilled octopus. That prompted the Spanish prime inister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to fret about the safety of "El Pulpo Paul," as he's known in Spain. "I am concerned about the octopus," Mr Zapatero said. "I'm thinking about sending in a team to protect the octopus because obviously it was very spectacular that he should get Spain's victory right from there."

In response to hundreds of angry e-mails from Germans, the aquarium actually took extra precautions, Mr Porwoll said. "I even told our guards and people at the entrance to keep a close look at possible football fans coming after Paul for revenge," he said, adding that the hate mail was outweighed by declarations of love and requests for predictions. Peta says Paul's tank is too small. But Mr Porwoll said the creature was born in captivity and has never had to deal with any natural enemies, so dumping Paul into the Atlantic would likely mean death. He could live up to four years in captivity, he added.

In the meantime, he might have a future beyond World Cup. A reporter from Greece asked if the mollusc medium could foresee the end of the financial crisis, and German TV stations have offered lucrative contracts, Mr Porwoll said. After Arab news sites reported Paul's picks, it was suggested he be sent to Iraq to choose between two bitter rivals - the prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, and his main challenger, Ayad Allawi - vying to head the new government.

Gary Jenkins, an economist with London's Evolution Securities, hedged his market analysis note yesterday with the phrase, "unless Paul says differently." Paul is not without competition. There's also Mani, a parakeet in Singapore, who predicted the Dutch would win tomorrow by creeping out of his wooden cage and choosing between two cards that bore the two nations' flags. In South Africa, Spanish team defender Carlos Marchena isn't putting too much stock in Paul's pick.

"It's only an octopus," he said. * AP

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Don’ts 

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From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines

Arrived in the UAE: 2007

Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus

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Favourite book: Harry Potter

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• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.

• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.

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Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.

Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.

The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.

The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.

A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.

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Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021

Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.

Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.

Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.

Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.

Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.

Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.

Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”

Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI. 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Crops that could be introduced to the UAE

1: Quinoa 

2. Bathua 

3. Amaranth 

4. Pearl and finger millet 

5. Sorghum