LONDON // A grim year for Gordon Brown and his government looks doomed to get immeasurably worse in the early hours of tomorrow.
That is when the result will be declared in Norwich North, a bellwether constituency in East Anglia, after a by-election contest that the prime minister certainly did not want and the outcome of which he must dread.
Norwich North fell to the Labour Party in 1997 on the day that Tony Blair led Labour to power. For 14 years before that, it had been in the Conservatives' hands, as had the government of the UK.
Now Ian Gibson, the current MP, has forced a by-election by standing down early after being deselected as a candidate at the next general election, following the expenses scandal that rocked the House of Commons.
When the polling booths close this evening, nobody expects that Labour will have been able to defend its 5,459-vote majority. And defeat will inevitably renew questions about the leadership of Mr Brown.
"A Conservative victory is the most sure-fire political bet since Robert Mugabe was re-elected in Zimbabwe," a senior Labour Party political activist said ruefully this week.
"The only question is how badly we will do. Some people are predicting we could end up behind not only the Tories, but also behind the Greens, Liberal Democrats and UKIP [UK Independence Party]. That would be a disaster of unspeakable proportions."
There is suspicion that Labour might be deliberately talking down its chances in the hope of being able to portray a second - or even third-place finish as something of a success. A survey conducted last weekend in Norwich North put the Conservatives at 34 per cent, only four points ahead of Labour. Nationally, the Conservatives are estimated to have a lead four times greater.
The dire straits that Mr Brown and his party find themselves in got marginally worse on Tuesday when Chris Ostrowski, Labour's candidate in the by-election, collapsed with suspected swine flu.
Cynics suggested that he was trying to get out the sympathy vote. Realists suggested that he was trying to get out of personally attending the declaration of the result tonight.
Given the apparent inevitability of defeat, however, a couple of things are running in Mr Brown's favour. The timing of the election comes as parliament and, hence, mainstream politics heads off for its three-month summer break.
By the time autumn rolls around and MPs return to Westminster, the Norwich North disaster might be little more than a distant memory.
Additionally, the countless stories that have emerged this year over MPs fiddling their generous expense allowances have so disenchanted the public with the body politic that all the main parties, the Conservatives included, might find they had to get out the votes in the by-election.
In turn, that is giving new hope to the fringe parties in Norwich North, particularly the Greens who have 13 councillors in the city and who took one-quarter of the votes in Norwich in the recent European parliament elections.
They could also be helped by the fact that the constituency is split between a built-up city area and rural, well-heeled villages where UKIP might do well in attracting votes from Conservative supporters fed up over the expenses scandal.
Mr Gibson, who still has a large personal following among voters and who is considered to have been shabbily treated by party officials, has done little to dent the Greens' hopes of gaining their first Westminster seat, if not now, then eventually.
"I'm still a member of the Labour Party, but very uneasy about the way I've been treated," he said. "The Green Party are developing and they know they've got a lot of support.
"The other parties better take notice because they work hard, they are young and they are keen. I've no doubt that Norwich could fall to them in the future."
Nevertheless, the Conservatives remain firm favourites to win the seat and, should they fail to do so, the by-election would be as a big a blow to them as losing the seat will be to Labour.
David Cameron, the Conservative leader, who campaigned in the city alongside the party's candidate, Chloe Smith, insisted that he was not taking victory for granted.
"I just think that people are very dispirited with politics," Mr Cameron said. "We have fought a really positive campaign all the way through. I think Chloe's campaign has been a model. I want a high turnout and we will be working hard to help Chloe."
For Mr Brown, defeat would mean that his MPs would go away on their summer break increasingly nervous about his leadership. If they cannot hold a safe seat like Norwich North, in the eastern part of England, it is unlikely they will be forming the next government after the general election.
Andrew Sinclair, the BBC's political correspondent in East Anglia, said that the by-election has yet to generate much excitement among a disillusioned public.
"So far a lot of this campaign has been fought in the media with carefully selected photo calls and press releases on subjects from clean campaigning to local policing but there's been less interaction with the public," he said.
"From my conversations with voters, there seems to be a lot of people who still need to be won over. They were perfectly happy with their last MP, they're suspicious of all politicians after the expenses revelations and they're not particularly bowled over by any of the candidates.
"And privately, the parties agree. There are a lot of undecideds out there, they say. The result is far from certain."
dsapsted@thenational.ae
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Arsenal 2 (Saka 43', Lacazette 85')
Man of the match: Shkodran Mustafi (Arsenal)
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Serie A
Juventus v Fiorentina, Saturday, 8pm (UAE)
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Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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Past winners of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
2016 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2015 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes-GP)
2014 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
2013 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
2012 Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2011 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2010 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
2009 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
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Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
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Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
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Dir: Guy Nattiv
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Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
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Starring: Brie Larson, Samuel L Jackson, Jude Law, Ben Mendelsohn
4/5 stars
The specs
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Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
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Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
Personalities on the Plate: The Lives and Minds of Animals We Eat
Barbara J King, University of Chicago Press
Profile of Udrive
Date started: March 2016
Founder: Hasib Khan
Based: Dubai
Employees: 40
Amount raised (to date): $3.25m – $750,000 seed funding in 2017 and a Seed round of $2.5m last year. Raised $1.3m from Eureeca investors in January 2021 as part of a Series A round with a $5m target.
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport