European leaders have agreed on the first steps on sanctions against Turkey in response to Ankara's prospecting for gas in Greek and Cypriot waters.
After a marathon summit on Thursday, EU leaders agreed to target the sanctions on individuals in the first instance but further measures could be imposed "if Turkey pursues its actions".
"Turkey has engaged in unilateral actions and provocations and escalated its rhetoric against the EU, EU Member States and European leaders," a statement said after a debate at a summit in Brussels.
"Turkish unilateral and provocative activities in the Eastern Mediterranean are still taking place, including in Cyprus's exclusive economic zone."
The sanctions are in response to Turkey challenging Greek and Cypriot territory by gas drilling in the Mediterranean Sea.
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the EU's "firmness" on Turkey but there will be disappointment in Greece and Cyprus that the leaders did not agree to seek an arms embargo or to target entire sectors of Turkey's economy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she hoped the messages sent by the EU would be "received correctly".
The conclusions called for a list to be drawn up of targets for "restrictive measures". Turkey said the EU plan to draw up sanctions was both partisan and illegal.
"We reject the biased and unlawful attitude which had to be inserted into the December 10 EU summit conclusions after the pressure of solidarity and veto," the foreign ministry said after the meeting.
France, Greece, and Cyprus had pushed for tough action against Turkey, but other EU nations including Germany, Italy and Poland opposed slapping broad sanctions or an embargo on a fellow NATO member.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that some "countries in the EU with common sense displayed a positive approach and foiled this game”.
Ahead of the summit, Mr Erdogan dismissed the sanctions threat: “Turkey does not care much about any sanctions decision to be made by the EU. The EU has never treated us honestly. The EU has never stood by any promise it has given us but we always remained patient and we are still patient."
The EU announcement comes a day after US plans to sanction Turkey over its S-400 air defence system, which was controversially purchased from Russia, were reported by the Washington Post. Mr Erdogan said any US sanctions would be "disrespectful".
President Donald Trump, who once called Mr Erdogan a "good friend", avoided sanctioning Turkey under a 2017 law known as CAATSA, which lays out measures against nations that buy significant quantities of arms from US adversaries, including Russia.
However, with weeks left of his presidency, Mr Trump plans to impose sanctions against Ankara "in the coming days for purchasing and testing" the S-400s.
Mr Erdogan said: "While they (US administrations) say with pride 'We have a NATO country like Turkey', for them to now stand up and confront Turkey with CAATSA, once more it's a disrespect to a very important NATO partner.
"I don't know where this will lead to before Trump leaves but during the four-year Trump period, I didn't have any problems in communicating with America.”
Ties between the US and Turkey have been strained over multiple issues, including US support for a Kurdish militia in Syria viewed as terrorists by Ankara, as well as the S-400s.
However, Mr Erdogan appeared to suggest relations could improve under president-elect Joe Biden, as he said he knew the former vice president under Trump's predecessor Barack Obama. "He is someone who knows me very well. And I know him very well," Mr Erdogan said.
Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
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