DAMASCUS // Five years after withdrawing its ambassador to Syria, the United States has finally confirmed the nomination of Robert Ford to the high-profile posting.
Although the announcement sparked much speculation about an intensified Middle East diplomatic campaign by the Obama administration, there is a consensus here that nothing much is likely to change.
Foreign diplomats, Syrian opposition groups and regime acolytes do not usually agree on very much. But they were all united in the belief that Mr Ford's arrival here - assuming he passes through US Senate confirmation hearings - will mean little beyond a fairly hollow symbolism.
"It will be better to have an ambassador here than not, I suppose, but I'm sure it won't amount to much," said Mustafa Qalaji, the secretary general of the Syrian Democratic Party, one of the country's illegal and weak independent political opposition groups.
"The problem hasn't been the lack of an ambassador; the problem is the ambassador is always a salesman for bad US policies.
"We've not seen anything sensible from them in decades and Obama has been the same. He's done lots of talking but we've not seen any serious action."
Ammar Qurabi, the head of a human rights campaign group in Syria - another organisation that is technically illegal, although it has applied for an operating licence - was of similarly low expectations. "No one I know has taken US ambassadors in the Middle East seriously since the 1960s. We realised back then that the ambassador doesn't make decisions on policy, the White House does. If the Americans are going to do something new for Middle East peace - and I doubt that'll ever happen - the US ambassador here will be the last to know."
Barack Obama was elected president promising to resume the dialogue that had been abandoned by the Bush administration. It was George W Bush who recalled the US ambassador from Damascus in 2005, citing Syria's support for "terror".
Last summer, Mr Obama made a speech at Cairo university - well received in the Middle East - which, he said, marked a new era of relations between the United States and the Muslim world. That was followed by a widely advertised effort to revive the long comatose peace process, with Washington taking the unusual step of drawing a line in the sand for Israel over its continued construction of illegal settlements on occupied Palestinian territory.
It was a demand seen as a litmus test of the new administration's willingness and ability to stand up to Israel. That test failed quickly, in the eyes of Arab countries and Europe: the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has refused to a total settlement freeze and suffered no diplomatic punishment from the US as a result.
With the US administration unable to achieve even such a modest goal in the region, there is no reason to expect a new ambassador in Damascus can bring about any major changes, said a pro-regime lawyer, Umran Zaubie.
"We welcome the return of an American ambassador to Syria and we take it as an acknowledgement that the past policy of trying to isolate Damascus has failed," he said. "But the basic issue is that peace will be impossible without fairness and the US continues to support Israel in everything it does, even if it is wrong."
Israel and Syria remain in a state of war over Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights. Various peace initiatives over the past four decades have failed.
If the new ambassador to Syria is able to profoundly change US policy towards Israel, he might have a real effect on the region, Mr Zaubie said. Otherwise the current, long impasse will remain unbroken.
That analysis was largely shared by European diplomats in Damascus. "Cynics say Obama is already washed up in the Middle East, optimists say he hasn't really started yet," said one political adviser working at a European mission in Syria. "I would say there has been no real US engagement. Middle East peace goes nowhere without the US and they had to do more with Netanyahu about those settlements.
"We have many policy problems with Syria, but there is no way the Syrians are going to move unless they see the Americans are serious with Israel. Obama has shown he is not serious."
Another senior EU diplomat said the job of the new US ambassador had been made all but impossible by the "amazing" failure of the White House to stand firm on the issue of Israeli settlements.
"The ambassador will go into his meetings with people who believe he is backed by a president who is good with words but light on action," the diplomat said. "They are very good words, but they are just words nonetheless.
"Syria is not irrational about these things; it will wonder if it can trust any guarantees the US gives on peace and will it probably conclude it can't."
A senior US official, William Burns, was in Damascus yesterday for a meeting with the Syrian president, Bashar Assad, ostensibly to deal with the now usual matters of Middle East peace, isolating Iran, plus the always thorny issue of Iraq.
It remains unclear, however, if Washington has even decided on what its policies towards Damascus will be. According to one US state department official working on the Syria file, there had been a "ferocious" debate among policymakers about what action to take.
"It's frustrating and painful and everyone is upset about it [the lack of clear direction]," the official said. "We're still not sure what return there will be on the investment if we go in for a serious engagement.
"But in terms of everyone having lower expectations, that's not a bad thing. When the re-engagement was announced, people got carried away. Now perhaps there can be some sober movement forwards."
psands@thenational.ae
MATCH INFO
Liverpool 4 (Salah (pen 4, 33', & pen 88', Van Dijk (20')
Leeds United 3 (Harrison 12', Bamford 30', Klich 66')
Man of the match Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A Long Way Home by Peter Carey
Faber & Faber
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Golden Shoe top five (as of March 1):
Harry Kane, Tottenham, Premier League, 24 goals, 48 points
Edinson Cavani, PSG, Ligue 1, 24 goals, 48 points
Ciro Immobile, Lazio, Serie A, 23 goals, 46 points
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, Premier League, 23 goals, 46 points
Lionel Messi, Barcelona, La Liga, 22 goals, 44 points
'C'mon C'mon'
Director:Mike Mills
Stars:Joaquin Phoenix, Gaby Hoffmann, Woody Norman
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The biog
Name: Capt Shadia Khasif
Position: Head of the Criminal Registration Department at Hatta police
Family: Five sons and three daughters
The first female investigator in Hatta.
Role Model: Father
She believes that there is a solution to every problem
BEACH SOCCER WORLD CUP
Group A
Paraguay
Japan
Switzerland
USA
Group B
Uruguay
Mexico
Italy
Tahiti
Group C
Belarus
UAE
Senegal
Russia
Group D
Brazil
Oman
Portugal
Nigeria
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The five pillars of Islam
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Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
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10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
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12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
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16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5