Amid faltering negotiations to end Syria's civil war, a ground assault on Idlib by Bashar Al Assad's forces takes the fight to the rebels in the one area they felt most secure against such an attack.
A coalition of Islamist rebel groups including, the Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra and the powerful Ahrar Al Sham militia, swept through the north-western province bordering Turkey in the spring of 2015. It has remained in rebel hands despite subsequent factional fighting and relentless government bombardment, including chlorine and sarin gas attacks.
As rebels lost battles elsewhere in the country, government-imposed ceasefire agreements would send those fighters as well as civilians from those areas to Idlib, swelling the population of the fledgling statelet to about two million.
As rebel infighting escalated, Jabhat Al Nusra, which had by then severed ties with Al Qaeda and rebranded itself Jabhat Fatah Al Sham, swallowed lesser militias and emerged as the dominant force in a new coalition, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham. It quickly established its military supremacy, driving out Ahrar Al Sham, its main Islamist rival, and recently set up a formal "government of national salvation" to serve as its political face.
The incursion by Syrian troops and allied forces into southern Idlib in late December is not only a challenge to rebel control of the province but also but a major setback to the opposition as a whole as it seeks to negotiate a transition of power from the Assad regime. Activists say the rebels in Idlib have retreated and done little to repel the government's advance, which is supported by heavy bombardment by Syrian and Russian jets.
The advance into Idlib appears to involve a thrust towards Abu Al Dhuhour airbase, a military complex that the government might use to cut off rebels in neighbouring Aleppo province from their counterparts in Idlib, and which is situated close to a highway leading to other western provinces.
It is not yet clear if the government is planning a broader campaign to reclaim the entire region, an undertaking that would face stiff resistance from entrenched rebels as well as cause a humanitarian catastrophe with another refugee surge into Turkey and untold civilian casualties.
The fighting has already forced thousands of residents to flee towards Turkey.
"There are people carrying all their belongings on cars everywhere, headed to the border," said one activist from Idlib who fled his home on Saturday for the Atmeh refugee camp near the Turkish border. "Entire villages have been displaced and abandoned."
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Read more:
Forces loyal to Assad have stepped up offensive in Idlib province
Syria rebel enclave is Assad regime's weak spot
Syrian army prepares assault to end rebel siege of base east of Damascus
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Many had come from Aleppo when that city fell a little more than a year ago, others from Homs, the countryside near Damascus, and many other areas where the opposition surrendered to the regime's superior firepower in exchange for safe passage.
“Displacement creates social, economic and humanitarian problems that can fell strong states, let alone impoverished areas exhausted by war that have no central services or authority,” said an Ahrar Al Sham official in Syria. “The criminal regime and its allies are using the pain of people in displacement because they believe they will agree to any compromises in order to return home.”
The Syrian advance will also alarm Ankara because, as part of a “de-escalation” agreement reached with Assad allies Russia and Iran, Turkey has deployed peacekeeping troops in Idlib. Their presence appears to have done little to limit the bombardment.
The renewed fighting in Idlib has also refocused attention on Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, which has used its military and political dominance in the province to impose hardline Islamist restrictions on residents, such as banning women from living alone without a male relative. This week, the group sought to close down college lectures involving students that had opposed its national salvation government.
Sam Heller, a Beirut-based fellow with The Century Foundation think tank, said the regime's corralling of opposition refugees and fighters into Idlib was primarily a strategy to demonstrate that the alternative to it was hardline jihadist rule.
“I think the idea was not only to deposit residents of these 'reconciled' areas in an opposition-held dumping ground, but to do it in the least hospitable one possible — one run by predatory jihadist factions, and that would be culturally alien to people from, for example, the Damascus countryside,” he said. “The regime also counted on the jammed-in residents of the rebel north-west, including its armed factions, to basically consume each other.
“And this strategy has also given the regime a useful bogeyman, allowing it to point to this low-functioning jihadist thing in Idlib as the real alternative to its own rule.”
The Ahrar Al Sham official said that Hayat Tahrir Al Sham's control over Idlib, and its destruction of rebel factions that it deemed rivals, had damaged the opposition's cause and provoked anger from residents through its policies.
“In short, the presence of HTS weakened the revolution militarily and politically,” he said.
Company%20profile
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Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
India squads
Test squad against Afghanistan: Rahane (c), Dhawan, Vijay, Rahul, Pujara, Karun, Saha, Ashwin, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Umesh, Shami, Pandya, Ishant, Thakur.
T20 squad against Ireland and England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Raina, Pandey, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh.
ODI squad against England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Shreyas, Rayudu, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Aston martin DBX specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Top speed: 291kph
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: Q2, 2020
UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
%3Cp%3EFirst%20ODI%20-%20Sunday%2C%20June%204%20%0D%3Cbr%3ESecond%20ODI%20-%20Tuesday%2C%20June%206%20%0D%3Cbr%3EThird%20ODI%20-%20Friday%2C%20June%209%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMatches%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Stadium.%20All%20games%20start%20at%204.30pm%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Adithya%20Shetty%2C%20Ali%20Naseer%2C%20Ansh%20Tandon%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Ethan%20D%E2%80%99Souza%2C%20Fahad%20Nawaz%2C%20Jonathan%20Figy%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Lovepreet%20Singh%2C%20Matiullah%2C%20Mohammed%20Faraazuddin%2C%20Muhammad%20Jawadullah%2C%20Rameez%20Shahzad%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Sanchit%20Sharma%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National selections
Al Ain
5pm: Bolereau
5.30pm: Rich And Famous
6pm: Duc De Faust
6.30pm: Al Thoura
7pm: AF Arrab
7.30pm: Al Jazi
8pm: Futoon
Jebel Ali
1.45pm: AF Kal Noor
2.15pm: Galaxy Road
2.45pm: Dark Thunder
3.15pm: Inverleigh
3.45pm: Bawaasil
4.15pm: Initial
4.45pm: Tafaakhor
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2015%20PRO%20MAX
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
