In the end, what should have been a lifeline turned into a noose. President Masoud Barzani, the dominant figure in Kurdish politics in post-Saddam Iraq, could not remain on his throne after he bungled on independence, a GOAL that had come to define him.
He is set to remain powerful behind the scenes, further undermining democracy in the autonomous government he was instrumental in creating.
On October 29, Mr Barzani made his first public speech since Iraqi forces rolled into Kirkuk two weeks earlier, prompting the rapid unravelling of Kurdish territorial gains made at the expense of Baghdad since the end of the second Gulf war. He announced he was stepping down as president.
The loss of Kirkuk and its oilfields in particular was the death knell to secession from Iraq, which Mr Barzani had hoped to prompt with a misguided independence referendum on September 25. The referendum also turned Turkey and Iran against the Kurdish region, and the neighbouring countries worked in concert with Iraqi prime minister Haider Al Abadi to prevent a break-up of the country. The US, a long-time ally of the Kurds, refused to come to their aid, also committed to the territorial integrity of Iraq. Mr Barzani had fundamentally miscalculated the reaction from abroad, and had hoped to exploit the supposed weakness of the Iraqi state after three exhausting years of war against ISIL.
The Iraqi Kurd president had staked his political future on carving a Kurdish state out of northern Iraq. Unwilling to relinquish power, he felt he had little choice but to up the ante. Presidents of the Kurdistan Regional Government are only supposed to serve for two terms, and his second term expired in 2013. He managed to convince the Kurdish parliament, which is dominated by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) he heads, to extend his term by two years. When this extension expired, he simply stayed on, extinguishing any democratic legitimacy for his rule. To compensate, he fanned the flames of Kurdish nationalism by promising independence.
When the referendum backfired, it was clear Mr Barzani had gambled too much of his political capital on one card and lost.
Read more: Kurdish independence bid undoes goodwill earned in fight against ISIL
Losing a game of such high stakes has cost him and the Kurds dearly. It is not only that have they been stripped of key territory gained in the wake of the Iraqi army's collapse in 2014, or through political manoeuvring even before ISIL threw Iraq into chaos. The catastrophic aftermath of the referendum has also deepened the rift between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the other political powerhouse in the Kurdish region. Reluctant to go ahead with the plebiscite, but unable to resist its patriotic appeal, the PUK cut a deal with Baghdad to allow Iraqi troops into Kirkuk.
The resulting fallout will strain the relationship of the two main Kurdish parties for years to come, raising the spectre of prolonged political deadlock, or worse. The two parties fought each other in a civil war in the nineties, which ended after Mr Barzani invited Saddam Hussein's troops into the Kurdish region to stave off defeat. There are no guarantees that history will not repeat itself.
Political stasis is already evident. Hopes that Mr Barzani's retirement would reform the ossified power structures of the KRG, kept in place by patronage networks and intimidation, were dashed even before the president announced he was stepping down. Presidential and parliamentary elections hastily announced after the referendum were just as hastily postponed indefinitely after the loss of Kirkuk, leaving the Kurdish region leaderless and with an expired parliament.
In his abdication speech, Mr Barzani said that in the absence of a successor, presidential powers would be divided between prime minister Nechirvan Barzani, his nephew, a KDP-dominated parliament, and the judiciary, which is subject to party patronage. He was at great pains to emphasise that he was not retiring from politics, and would continue his struggle for independence.
By stepping down, Mr Barzani has taken himself out of the firing line, but not before undermining the KRG's institutions sufficiently to be able to rule behind the scenes. Although no longer president, he will preside over the rubble of Kurdish democracy, clinging on to the shattered dream of Kurdish independence.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
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The biog
Name: Shamsa Hassan Safar
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Degree in emergency medical services at Higher Colleges of Technology
Favourite book: Between two hearts- Arabic novels
Favourite music: Mohammed Abdu and modern Arabic songs
Favourite way to spend time off: Family visits and spending time with friends
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
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- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
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Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
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The Written World: How Literature Shaped History
Martin Puchner
Granta
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Ahmed Raza, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Chirag Suri , Zahoor Khan
