Iran has yet to respond officially to the surprisingly strong display of political muscle by a secular, nationalist coalition in neighbouring Iraq's general elections.
Tehran's seemingly sullen silence reinforces the impression that it is fuming.
Last Friday's poll results have been hailed by commentators in the United States and its allies in the Sunni Arab world as an unexpectedly welcome development that will curtail Iranian influence in Iraq.
Ayad Allawi campaigned for better ties with the Arab world, while keeping Iran at a distance.
Most analysts say it is too early to say whether he will be able to form the next Iraqi government after his razor-thin victory at the March 7 polls. A protracted period of coalition building is now expected.
Much of Mr Allawi's support came from Iraq's Sunni minority, but most of the parties he needs to back him now represent Iraq's Shiite majority, and they have close ties to Iran. "But we can say one thing with certainty: the election was a stunning defeat for Iran" which "spent millions trying to stop an Allawi victory", enthused David Ignatius of The Washington Post.
"If nothing else, that shows the resiliency of Iraqi nationalism, and anti-Iranian feeling, which the Shiite religious parties that have been governing Iraq these past five years failed to crush."
Iran analysts are generally more restrained, but many agree the Iranian regime has suffered a setback. "Allawi is known to be pro-western and secular and we know Iran favoured his opponents," said a senior Iranian analyst in London, who declined to be named.
Hardline Iranian dailies such as Kayhan and Resalat had branded Mr Allawi, a former prime minister, a lackey of the British, Americans and Saudis.
"Obviously, if he becomes prime minister, Iran's relations with Iraq will deteriorate," said an analyst in Tehran who also requested anonymity. "Allawi is very much inclined towards Arab states and his rise would mean a stronger position for the Sunni minority. Iraq is Iran's battlefield with Arab countries."
While previously highly critical of Tehran, Mr Allawi was careful during the election campaign not to take a hostile stance, calling for good relations with all of Iraq's neighbours, including Iran. But he lashed out at Iran on Tuesday, accusing the Islamic republic of trying to prevent him from becoming prime minister.
He told the BBC that Iran had interfered by inviting all the major Iraqi parties to Tehran for talks, except his Iraqiyya bloc.
Mr Allawi also alleged that Tehran was influencing a commission that has been vetting candidates for ties to Saddam Hussein's Baath party, which could disqualify more of his supporters. Iran denies any such interference. "Allawi's comments tell me that in Iraq, anti-Iranian sentiment is growing and he's using that for leverage," the analyst in London said.
Other Iran experts, however, are far from certain that Tehran views the election outcome next door as a setback ? at least not yet.
Iran, they argue, may well prefer to see the current coalition of Islamist parties and Kurds remain in power, with or without the prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, who is friendly with Tehran, at the helm. But, they argue, Iran has deep connections to a wide variety of groups and forces in Iraq at the federal and provincial levels that give Tehran the ability to adjust to any shifting balance of power.
The US may have 96,000 troops in Iraq, but its influence is trumped by Iran's "soft power", they say. Iran and Iraq are bound by strong geographic, historic and particularly religious ties, as both have majority Shiite populations.
Many of Iraq's Shiite political elite lived in exile in Iran for decades during Saddam's rule, while Mr Allawi spent most of his years in exile in Britain.
At the same time, influential Iraqi Shiite politicians who spent years in Iran have no desire to see Iraq become an Islamic republic. They witnessed firsthand the Iranian experiment, where a supreme leader wields more power than elected institutions, and were unimpressed.
Iran is confident, nevertheless, that any new coalition in Iraq will include sympathetic Shiite Islamist forces, even it is headed by Mr Allawi, experts say.
"Tehran can live with almost any outcome in Iraq so long as the results do not bring about instability and as such turn into an obstacle for America's scheduled troop withdrawal [due to begin later this year]," Farideh Farhi, a political scientist at the University of Hawaii, said in an interview.
Ms Farhi argued it was misguided to suggest Iran's interests in Iraq were inherently at odds with those of the US and its Arab allies. All parties, she argued, want a stable Iraq.
"The argument for an Iranian setback at this point only makes sense if one perceives the American and Iranian stakes in Iraq as only in conflict - which is not necessarily the case," she said.
mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
msinaiee@thenational.ae
Michael Theodolou reported from Nicosia, Cyprus and Maryam Sinaiee reported from Tehran
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The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
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Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 3 (Abraham 11', 17', 74')
Luton Town 1 (Clark 30')
Man of the match Abraham (Chelsea)
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Results
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Celtic Prince, David Liska (jockey), Rashed Bouresly (trainer).
7.05pm: Conditions Dh240,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Commanding, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
7.40pm: Handicap Dh190,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Grand Argentier, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh170,000 (D) 2,200m
Winner: Arch Gold, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed Dh265,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Military Law, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
9.25pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Ibn Malik, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
10pm: Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
Chelsea 2 Burnley 3
Chelsea Morata (69'), Luiz (88')
Burnley Vokes (24', 43'), Ward (39')
Red cards Cahill, Fabregas (Chelsea)
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Leap of Faith
Michael J Mazarr
Public Affairs
Dh67
Abu Dhabi card
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 2,400m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 2,200m
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 1,400m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 1,400m
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
The National selections:
5pm: Valcartier
5.30pm: AF Taraha
6pm: Dhafra
6.30pm: Maqam
7pm: AF Mekhbat
7.30pm: Ezz Al Rawasi
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Hotel Silence
Auður Ava Ólafsdóttir
Pushkin Press
Price, base / as tested From Dh173,775 (base model)
Engine 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo, AWD
Power 249hp at 5,500rpm
Torque 365Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Gearbox Nine-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined 7.9L/100km
PREMIER LEAGUE STATS
Romelu Lukaku's goalscoring statistics in the Premier League
Season/club/appearances (substitute)/goals
2011/12 Chelsea: 8(7) - 0
2012/13 West Brom (loan): 35(15) - 17
2013/14 Chelsea: 2(2) - 0
2013/14 Everton (loan): 31(2) - 15
2014/15 Everton: 36(4) - 10
2015/16 Everton: 37(1) - 18
2016/17 Everton: 37(1) - 25
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
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Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
