TEHRAN // While Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is barred by the country's constitution from running for a third term, the Iranian president may seek to retain power by urging his controversial chief of staff, Esfandiar Mashaie, to stand in Iran's next presidential elections, analysts say.
This plan has echoes in Russia, these observers say. When constitutionally mandated term limits prevented Vladimir Putin from seeking another term in office in 2008, his hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, stepped in and won election. While Mr Putin assumed the largely ceremonial post of prime minister, most Russians and outsiders today believe real power in the Kremlin still resides with him.
"The president's unwavering loyalty and support for Mashaie in the face of all recent attacks on the man makes sense only if we accept that he wants his old friend to take his place as president so that he can himself stay as close to power as possible, somewhat like Russia's Putin has done since Medvedev was elected," said an analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Mr Ahmadinejad and his chief of staff are indeed close. Mr Mashaie has angered Iran's conservative religious establishment many times by expressing what they consider unorthodox views. But in nearly every case, Mr Ahmadinejad has stepped in to defend the man many consider the president's most trusted ally.
Last year, Mr Ahmadinejad created a stir by ignoring a direct order from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to cancel Mr Mashaie's appointment as first vice president. Eventually, he let Mr Mashaie resign, then quickly appointed him chief of staff.
To widespread dismay, Mr Mashaie has frequently voiced what many clerics, politicians and analysts here deem unorthodox views. His recent remarks about "various interpretations of Islam" and the superiority of "the Iranian school" were controversial, tarnishing Mr Ahmadinejad's status among conservatives and hardliners.
To the orthodox religious establishment, these remarks, made to expatriate Iranians during a seminar this month, were excessively nationalistic. They regard Mr Mashaie's brand of nationalism as blasphemy.
On Friday, many of the supreme leader's appointed prayer leaders joined forces to criticise Mr Mashaie in their sermons. Several urged Mr Ahmadinejad to dismiss his chief of staff.
Even a top military official reacted. Gen Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of the armed forces' joint command, called the remarks made by Mr Mashaie deviant. He charged that inviting "theoreticians of soft war and CIA spies to the country" - probably a reference to Housang Amir-Ahmadi, an Iranian living in the United States who is known for his efforts to broker direct talks with the US - to participate in a seminar with expatriate Iranians was "an act against national security".
The military chief's outburst was followed by another from Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, who is thought to have been Mr Ahmadinejad's religious mentor, at least during his early days as politician and president. He also enjoys huge influence among the state-affiliated clerics of Qom, the country's religious capital.
"Certain people who are shamelessly promoting the Iranian school in the place of the Islamic school are outsiders, not insiders, and we must be alert," the senior ayatollah said in a speech to military commanders last week.
"We have no brotherhood pact with anyone. If a person deviates from Islam, we'll first give a warning and then raise the stick to hit," he said.
A few days earlier, the ayatollah had warned about a "new sedition", not by the reformist opposition, but by some among the "value-abiding" forces, a veiled reference to the president and others in power.
Neither the senior military chief nor the senior cleric criticised Mr Ahmadinejad directly. Nonetheless, the president rose to Mr Mashaie's full defence.
"Mr Mashaie is my chief of staff. I have complete trust in him," Mr Ahmadinejad said last week.
For his part, Mr Mashaie has not been intimidated, either. He has threatened to sue Gen Firouzabadi.
For all the similarities between the politics of succession in Russia and Iran, one observer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, sees an important difference.
"Mashaie seems to be playing the role of the mentor like Putin, the man with the vision, rather than being the protégé like Medvedev. Ahmadinejad has an ideology he wants to further at any cost and that quite unorthodox ideology seems to have been fostered by Mashaie. So, why not him?"
In Mr Mashaie's comments to expatriate Iranians, one analyst even saw hints of a campaign strategy taking shape:
"A declaration of nationalism was meant to appeal to the participants of the seminar, and quite possibly to many favouring nationalism outside those walls," the analyst said. "Ahmadinejad won his first term by appealing to the poor who saw his rival [Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani] as the embodiment of corruption. A certain brand of nationalism in conjunction with unorthodox religious beliefs may be on the agenda to win the next elections for Mashaie".
msinaiee@thenational.ae
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Cricket World Cup League Two
Teams
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
Fixtures
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Oman
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
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Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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