Beyond the bombastic talk and threats of a second full-scale confrontation between Israel and the Lebanese juggernaut Hizbollah, experts describe a more complex landscape that is more likely to make both sides count to ten before triggering another conflict.
“The clouds of war are gathering … Hizbollah is preparing for war,” US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley told the Security Council last week, sounding the alarm on risks of an imminent conflict between Hizbollah and Israel after 11 years of relative quiet since the 2006 war.
Ms Haley’s grim testimony on the situation in southern Lebanon and calls for more monitoring by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) was preceded by plenty of sabre-rattling from both Iran-backed Hizbollah and Israel this summer.
Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said the next confrontation could be inside Israel, which “will suffer the same defeat that it suffered in 2006, but with greater force”. Meanwhile, former Israeli defence minister Moshe Yaalon told the Arabic news website Elaph that “if [Iran’s supreme leader] Khamenei wants war, then Lebanon will go to war, and every Lebanese will suffer from the next war because all infrastructure will be destroyed”.
According to a recent report, The Low-Profile War Between Israel and Hizbollah, by the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies, the Iran-backed party has more than doubled its capability since 2006.
“Hizbollah has been able to build one of the largest projectile arsenals in the world”, estimated to be between 120,000 to 140,000 rockets and missiles, said the report. The number of fighters has also increased to 45,000 from 17,000 in 2006.
However, experts argue that the build-up does not necessarily mean a war is imminent, and could even be a preventive tactic by Hizbollah.
Hanin Ghaddar, a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told The National: "For Hizbollah, this is not the time for another war with Israel."
A confrontation with Israel would jeopardise Hizbollah's other regional priorities, she said.
“At a time when Hizbollah and Iran are winning the battles in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, why would they risk a confrontation,” said Ms Ghaddar, who studies Hizbollah and the Shiite community in Lebanon.
She said the party was “very thinned out and has lost many of its high-ranking commanders and trained fighters … they will need time to regroup and organise themselves if a war were to happen”.
Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate with the Arleigh A Burke Chair in Strategy at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, described a complex interplay between Israel and Hizbollah that makes the timing and the outcome of another war unpredictable.
"Every year, since 2006, the anticipation has been building; it would shift and turn as both Hizbollah and Israel adapted and responded to local, regional and international forces," Mr Nerguizian told The National.
He said the key factors to take into account at this point include the gradual rout of ISIL in Syria and Iraq, Syrian president Bashar Al Assad regime’s gradual clawing back of territory and the rapid decline and collapse of Syrian armed opposition groups, a more aggressive US posture toward Iran and Hizbollah, and Russia’s preference for pre-eminence in Syria.
All of these factors make 2017 “just as unpredictable as every previous year since 2006”, he said.
What remains clear, however, Mr Nerguizian added, is “that neither the US nor the Israeli military establishment nor Hizbollah itself have a preference for another round of sustained fighting”.
Ms Ghaddar agrees and qualifies aggressive statements and military threats as more “rallying the base rather than calling for war”.
“Hizbollah is less ready than Israel for the next war, but Israel too knows that another war [would be] costlier [than in 2006],” she said.
Mr Nerguizian said: “Hizbollah has to turn its attention to how it refocuses its efforts inward in Lebanon.”
According to Ms Ghaddar, Hizbollah is facing serious problems with its Shiite support base.
“The whole concept of ‘resistance’ has been shaken by their involvement in the war in Syria and the losses in fighters,” she said.
Hizbollah's involvement in the Syrian war, publicly acknowledged in 2013, has cost the lives of an estimated 1,700 of its fighters.
These elements "have exhausted the [Shiite] community and raised a lot of concerns regarding the actual involvement in the war in Syria”.
At the same time, Hizbollah has become battle-hardened in Syria and has acquired new weaponry as well as control over strategic areas along the border with Lebanon.
“As a side-effect of the Russian aid to Assad, Hizbollah is reported to have acquired additional maritime stand-off missile capability. This could pose a threat to Israeli naval assets, and potentially to other civilian and military traffic in the eastern Mediterranean,” Mr Nerguizian said.
The party's involvement in Syria could also mean a wider war than 2006 if a confrontation were to happen.
“We are talking about a wider scope for any war,” said Ms Ghaddar. “Israel might actually strike Hizbollah in Syria — where they are more exposed … while Hizbollah could use certain areas in Syria which are under its control or under the Assad regime [near the Golan Heights] to fight Israel.”
A lot has changed in Lebanon as well since 2006. The country now hosts more than a million Syrian refugees, a population that "may have to flee to Europe or elsewhere if Israel attacks", a senior Lebanese official warned recently.
Without a ground invasion, which carries catastrophic risks, it will be hard for Israel to emerge victorious in another confrontation against Hizbollah, said Mr Nerguizian. “Israel would need to decisively score a win in any future war with Hizbollah; all the Shiite militant group has to do is survive to fight another day.”
The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
AIDA%20RETURNS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarol%20Mansour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAida%20Abboud%2C%20Carol%20Mansour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5.%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Case For Trump
By Victor Davis Hanson
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
FIXTURES
Monday, January 28
Iran v Japan, Hazza bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)
Tuesday, January 29
UAEv Qatar, Mohamed Bin Zayed Stadium (6pm)
Friday, February 1
Final, Zayed Sports City Stadium (6pm)
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Sweet%20Tooth
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
RESULTS
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner: Najem Al Rwasi, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Fandim, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Harbh, Pat Cosgrave, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham
4pm: Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jawaal, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
4.30pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup (TB) Dh200,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Kia Picanto
Price: From Dh39,500
Engine: 1.2L inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Four-speed auto
Power: 86hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 122Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.0L / 100km
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410
Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 420Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDirect%20Debit%20System%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sept%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20with%20a%20subsidiary%20in%20the%20UK%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elaine%20Jones%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The story of Edge
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, established Edge in 2019.
It brought together 25 state-owned and independent companies specialising in weapons systems, cyber protection and electronic warfare.
Edge has an annual revenue of $5 billion and employs more than 12,000 people.
Some of the companies include Nimr, a maker of armoured vehicles, Caracal, which manufactures guns and ammunitions company, Lahab
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Seven%20Winters%20in%20Tehran
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Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
6.30pm: Handicap (rated 100 ) US$175,000 1,200m
Winner: Baccarat, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (78-94) $60,000 1,800m
Winner: Baroot, Christophe Soumillon, Mike de Kock
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes Group 3 $200,000 1,600m
Winner: Heavy Metal, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.15pm: Handicap (95-108) $125,000 1,200m
Winner: Yalta, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm: Balanchine Group 2 $200,000 1,800m
Winner: Promising Run, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
9.25pm: Handicap (95-105) $125,000 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
10pm: Handicap (95-105) $125,000 1,400m
Winner: Oh This Is Us, Tom Marquand, Richard Hannon
Results
Stage three:
1. Stefan Bissegger (SUI) EF Education-EasyPost, in 9-43
2. Filippo Ganna (ITA) Ineos Grenadiers, at 7s
3. Tom Dumoulin (NED) Jumbo-Visma, at 14s
4. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE-Team Emirates, at 18s
5. Joao Almeida (POR) UAE-Team Emirates, at 22s
6. Mikkel Bjerg (DEN) UAE-Team Emirates, at 24s
General Classification:
1. Stefan Bissegger (SUI) EF Education-EasyPost, in 9-13-02
2. Filippo Ganna (ITA) Ineos Grenadiers, at 7s
3. Jasper Philipsen (BEL) Alpecin Fenix, at 12s
4. Tom Dumoulin (NED) Jumbo-Visma, at 14s
5. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE-Team Emirates, at 18s
6. Joao Almeida (POR) UAE-Team Emirates, at 22s
MATCH INFO
Championship play-offs, second legs:
Aston Villa 0
Middlesbrough 0
(Aston Villa advance 1-0 on aggregate)
Fulham 2
Sessegnon (47'), Odoi (66')
Derby County 0
(Fulham advance 2-1 on aggregate)
Final
Saturday, May 26, Wembley. Kick off 8pm (UAE)
