Syria helps to break deadlock in Baghdad



DAMASCUS // Long accused by its critics of playing a spoiling role in Iraq, Syria is working to break the deadlock over forming a new government in Baghdad, according to Iraqi political leaders in Damascus. Much of the effort has taken place behind the scenes, with delegations from across Iraq's fractured political landscape holding talks with senior Syrian figures.

But there have been public manifestations of the diplomacy, most notably when Ayad Allawi and Muqtada al Sadr met in Damascus last month. It was the first time the two men, both highly influential as leaders of major Iraqi political factions, had ever met face to face. Previously they had been in a state of open war, their forces clashing in 2004 and 2005. The Allawi-Sadr Damascus summit almost did not happen, coming to pass at the 11th hour after a high level Syrian intervention that persuaded Mr Allawi to make the trip, according to officials in his Iraqiyya bloc.

"Syria did a remarkable thing by breaking the ice and arranging those meetings," said Mohammad al Gharawi, Syria office director for the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), which is allied with the Sadr movement. "In the past the Sadrists attitude had been to see Allawi as a red line, they would not meet him, so that is a significant shift." Mr Gharawi said ISCI had long urged its coalition partner to hold leadership level talks with Iraqiyya but that it had required painstaking Syrian mediation to make it happen.

"It's not a small thing to see Muqtada al Sadr and Ayad Allawi shaking hands," he said. "It may not have solved all the differences between them but it has defused tensions. That's very positive." In order to manage what is a highly complex and important area of policy, Damascus has set up a special Iraq unit with contacts to Iraqi groups and direct access to top Syrian decision-makers. Iraqi politicians who spoke to The National said they were amazed at the depth and detail of knowledge of Iraq's affairs possessed by the Syrian authorities. Damascus has cultivated contacts with groups from across the political spectrum, from pro-insurgency rejectionists to government ministers. That has put it in a unique position of being able to reach all factions, Iraqi and Syrian officials said. During Saddam Hussein's regime, Syria hosted his political opponents - among them Nouri al Maliki, Iraq's current prime minister - and rebuffed attempts to have them extradited to Baghdad. More recently, during Mr al Maliki's rule, Damascus has similarly hosted his opposition - including Saddamists - and has refused demands that they be sent back to Iraq. "We know that Syria has a close relationship with Iran, but we are still excepted here, Syria sees us as a real fact of Iraqi politics," said a Saddam Hussein loyalist who remains an active member of the outlawed Iraqi Baath party. The Baathists' military wing is involved in insurgent activity and is opposed to Tehran's involvement in Iraq. But the Baathist said Syria's wide contacts might one day prove crucial in stabilising Iraq. Those links had already allowed for a cautious unofficial dialogue between representatives of insurgent groups and the governments they are fighting, he said, even if they had yet to yield concrete results. "More than once the Americans have sent intermediaries to us here to ask about our positions and Mr al Maliki himself sent a delegation to us earlier this year to discuss reconciliation," the Baathist said. "In the end all of our differences can only be resolved through discussion and Syria has kept that possibility open." Damascus's acceptance of pro-Saddam exiles has led to serious problems with the Iraqi authorities. Perhaps Syria's most strained Iraq relationship is with Mr al Maliki, who last year accused Damascus of harbouring the bombers behind a deadly attack in Baghdad, an allegation it denied. While relations remain cool, the two sides have been in dialogue since the election, with at least two delegations from the Iraq Dawa party, which Mr al Maliki heads, holding talks with Syrian officials. Business between the two governments has also quietly resumed in the form of trade discussions, despite both having withdrawn their ambassadors over the highly public bomb dispute. Ahmed al Dulaimi, spokesman for Iraqiyya in Damascus, said Syria was wielding its influence to help form a non-sectarian, strong central government. "The Syrians always warn against the kind of destructive sectarian divisions we've seen," he said. "They back the idea of a national government that represents all of Iraq and that reflects the election results but that is not some weak partnership, created according to sectarian quotas, and unable to make decisions," Mr al Dulaimi said. Iran, Syria's main regional ally, is widely perceived as favouring a sectarian division of power in Iraq, in order to ensure it has a Shiite-controlled, non-threatening neighbour. That has fuelled persistent suggestions that Iran and Syria disagree over Iraq's future. In a recent visit to Damascus, Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, denied reports of a rift, saying the two countries' positions were "in unison". His comments did little to tamp down speculation. "I have it on good authority that Iran is the country most opposed to Syria's interests in Iraq," said a Syrian analyst. "Iran wants the Sunnis marginalised in Iraq but Syria doesn't; an oppressed Sunni minority living next door could make problems here. Syria wants national unity in Iraq." With its own large Kurdish minority, Damascus is also keen to ensure that Iraq's Kurds do not push for independence, something that it fears would threaten Syria's territorial integrity. Mustafa Mukdad, managing editor of the Syrian state run daily newspaper Al Thawra, said Damascus had good reason to know what was going on in its war-torn neighbour and in helping it form a stable government. "When there is peace and quiet in Iraq, Syria will be quiet too," he said, adding that with a US timetable for complete withdrawal set for the end of 2011, policy differences between Damascus and Washington over Iraq had lessened considerably. "We have a vested interest in peace and stability," he said. "It is not about supporting one Iraqi group against the other, it is about trying to make the necessary reconciliation. "Syria knows Iraq's problems, it knows all the factions. As the evidence proves, if you don't have Syria's help on Iraq, you will not get a solution." psands@thenational.ae

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How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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Install an air filter in your home.

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Ahmed Raza

UAE cricket captain

Age: 31

Born: Sharjah

Role: Left-arm spinner

One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95

T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Eyasses squad

Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)

Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)  

Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)

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Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)

Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)

Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)

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Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)         

Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)