International sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports are inflicting economic pain but may well fail to force Tehran to compromise on its nuclear ambitions and could even make the regime more intransigent, analysts said.
The unprecedented measures could also boomerang by driving up oil prices, hitting the jittery global economy, they said.
"In the process of hunting for alternative sources to Iranian oil, it's virtually certain that the price of oil is going to rise," said Gary Sick, an Iran expert and former White House policy adviser at Columbia University in New York.
Ordinary Iranians complain that they, rather than their defiant and resilient regime, are bearing the brunt of sanctions that are compounding problems caused by the government's economic mismanagement.
US financial sanctions imposed at the beginning of this year are playing havoc with Iran's ability to receive payments for its oil exports. But they are also causing serious disruption to Tehran's
imports, with a real effect on the Iranian street where prices for basic foodstuffs are soaring. Malaysian exporters of palm oil, critical to Iran's food industry, have halted sales to Tehran because they could not get paid.
A margarine factory owner in Iran told Reuters: "The way things are going, I predict that over the next three to four months our edible oil will run out because of sanctions."
A default by Iranian buyers on purchases of 200,000 tonnes of Indian rice is potentially more crippling, and imports of tea from India, Iran's favourite beverage, are facing similar payment hurdles. Iran, meanwhile, is reportedly seeking to close grain purchases using gold and oil as payment.
The Iranian rial has lost half its value against the dollar in recent weeks. The official inflation rate stands at 20 per cent but it is thought to be much higher, and the same applies to the official unemployment rate of 14.6 per cent.
With the rial plummeting, the price of rice, a main dietary staple of Iran's 74 million people, has more than doubled in a year to $5 a kilo. The cost of meat has almost tripled to about $30 a kilo, beyond the budget of many middle-class families.
The stated aim of the US sanctions and a European Union embargo on imports of Iranian oil, effective from July, was to force Iran back to the negotiating table, paving the way for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Iran does not see it that way. It believes the sanctions are aimed at inciting domestic upheaval.
"By going after the jugular of the Iranian economy, the Obama administration is giving signals, intentionally or unintentionally, that it is going for the collapse of the Iranian economy and eventually the regime," said Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. "With this ambiguity … Iran's leadership has zero incentive to negotiate," she told The National.
A seemingly confident Tehran has shrugged off the sanctions as "psychological warfare and propaganda" that it says will have no effect on its nuclear programme. Iran's own propagandists say that the sanctions will even be beneficial, arguing they will reduce imports and create 200,000 new jobs by boosting domestic manufacturing.
Despite Iran's bravado, analysts believe its room to manoeuvre is fast shrinking.
"The last thing they want is the pressure of sanctions influencing domestic politics in the run-up to parliamentary elections" on March 2, Anoush Ehteshami, an Iran expert at Durham University in England, said in an interview.
Iran and the West are gearing up for a new round of nuclear talks, but each is hampered by having set maximum positions that make it politically difficult for either to make concessions. How the sanctions will influence the decisions of Iran's fractious ruling hardliners is a moot point.
"They will boost the intransigence of the intransigent and encourage those who wish at least to explore diplomacy to emphasise the need to explore diplomacy," said Sir Richard Dalton, a British former ambassador to Iran and fellow at Chatham House, a British think tank. "But the leadership in Iran seems to be veering towards the intransigent," he said, referring to remarks last week by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The ayatollah vowed that "crippling sanctions" would never force Tehran to "retreat" on its nuclear programme, which it insists is solely peaceful in nature. The strengths of Iran's relatively self-reliant if troubled economy suggest that, as long as Iran can find buyers for much of its oil, it will be able to limp along.
"Iran can probably survive sanctions," said a European diplomat who recently returned from Tehran.
China and Russia, which already take a combined 34 per cent of Iran's oil exports, have signalled they will not cut back. Such countries are expected to end up buying most or all of the Iranian oil rejected by the EU embargo. But they will demand discounts.
China has cut its imports by more than half over the first three months of this year while pressing Iran to reduce its price. Selling its oil at a 10 to 15 per cent discount would be a heavy but not crippling blow to Iran's US$480 billion (Dh1.7603tr) economy.
Gary Hufbauer, a former US Treasury official and sanctions expert, estimated that at most, the sanctions would cut Iran's GDP by 10 per cent. "Iran can still scrape by," he told Reuters.
If Iran succeeds in finding other buyers for its oil, "then sanctions won't really work," Mr Sick said. "Meanwhile, countries like Greece, Italy and Spain which get Iranian oil at a discount won't be able to replace those supplies at the same price."
The history of sanctions against other countries such as Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Cuba augurs badly for similar coercive action against Iran.
"Iran itself has absorbed very great [sanctions] pressures since the time of the 1979 Islamic revolution," Mr Sick said. "I'm sceptical that they will now force Iran to basically surrender."
mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Navdeep Suri, India's Ambassador to the UAE
There has been a longstanding need from the Indian community to have a religious premises where they can practise their beliefs. Currently there is a very, very small temple in Bur Dubai and the community has outgrown this. So this will be a major temple and open to all denominations and a place should reflect India’s diversity.
It fits so well into the UAE’s own commitment to tolerance and pluralism and coming in the year of tolerance gives it that extra dimension.
What we will see on April 20 is the foundation ceremony and we expect a pretty broad cross section of the Indian community to be present, both from the UAE and abroad. The Hindu group that is building the temple will have their holiest leader attending – and we expect very senior representation from the leadership of the UAE.
When the designs were taken to the leadership, there were two clear options. There was a New Jersey model with a rectangular structure with the temple recessed inside so it was not too visible from the outside and another was the Neasden temple in London with the spires in its classical shape. And they said: look we said we wanted a temple so it should look like a temple. So this should be a classical style temple in all its glory.
It is beautifully located - 30 minutes outside of Abu Dhabi and barely 45 minutes to Dubai so it serves the needs of both communities.
This is going to be the big temple where I expect people to come from across the country at major festivals and occasions.
It is hugely important – it will take a couple of years to complete given the scale. It is going to be remarkable and will contribute something not just to the landscape in terms of visual architecture but also to the ethos. Here will be a real representation of UAE’s pluralism.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The biog
Name: Maitha Qambar
Age: 24
Emirate: Abu Dhabi
Education: Master’s Degree
Favourite hobby: Reading
She says: “Everyone has a purpose in life and everyone learns from their experiences”
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
More from Armen Sarkissian
Squads
Pakistan: Sarfaraz Ahmed (c), Babar Azam (vc), Abid Ali, Asif Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Sohail, Mohammad Hasnain, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Rizwan, Shadab Khan, Usman Shinwari, Wahab Riaz
Sri Lanka: Lahiru Thirimanne (c), Danushka Gunathilaka, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Avishka Fernando, Oshada Fernando, Shehan Jayasuriya, Dasun Shanaka, Minod Bhanuka, Angelo Perera, Wanindu Hasaranga, Lakshan Sandakan, Nuwan Pradeep, Isuru Udana, Kasun Rajitha, Lahiru Kumara
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Result
Crystal Palace 0 Manchester City 2
Man City: Jesus (39), David Silva (41)
Company%20Profile
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Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
India team for Sri Lanka series
Test squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Priyank Panchal, Mayank Agarwal, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Hanuma Vihari, Shubhman Gill, Rishabh Pant (wk), KS Bharath (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Sourabh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
T20 squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Ruturaj Gaikwad, Shreyas Iyer, Surya Kumar Yadav, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan (wk), Venkatesh Iyer, Deepak Chahar, Deepak Hooda, Ravindra Jadeja, Yuzvendra Chahal, Ravi Bishnoi, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Harshal Patel, Jasprit Bumrah, Avesh Khan
RESULTS
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner: AF Senad, Nathan Crosse (jockey), Kareem Ramadan (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Ashjaan, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel.
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Amirah, Conner Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Jap Al Yaasoob, Szczepan Mazur, Irfan Ellahi.
4pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Cup Prestige Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jawaal, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri.
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Manhunter, Ryan Curatolo, Mujeeb Rahman.
Company name: Farmin
Date started: March 2019
Founder: Dr Ali Al Hammadi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: AgriTech
Initial investment: None to date
Partners/Incubators: UAE Space Agency/Krypto Labs
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
