WASHINGTON // With little resolved during talks in Geneva this week between Iran and six world powers over its nuclear programme, the US administration once again faced questions over how best to proceed on the issue.
Analysts in Washington were divided between those who saw no practical alternative to continued and sustained engagement with Tehran and those who believed that a credible military option and/or regime change was the only way to make progress.
The administration has so far tried the middle ground, pushing for tougher sanctions while pursuing engagement. This has generally been well received in Washington, even by administration critics. But sanctions have yet to yield any breakthrough.
The administration has also had to be mindful of diplomatic limitations in keeping a united international front together. And, as cables revealed by WikiLeaks show, Washington has worked hard to keep Russia, China, and, to a lesser extent, Germany - three powers with their own interests in Iran - on board.
For now, US officials have tried to remain positive about the Geneva talks between Iran and the so-called P5-plus-one nations - the five permanent members of the UN's Security Council and Germany.
On Tuesday, Phillip J Crowley, the State Department spokesman, said he hoped Geneva would provide the basis for a "serious process" to start in Turkey, where Iran and representatives of the P5-plus-one meet in January.
"We're encouraged that there will be a follow-on meeting," Mr Crowley told journalists at the daily State Department briefing. "As we signalled before this first meeting, we were open to have multiple meetings in multiple locations, and certainly the decision to meet next month in Istanbul is a reflection of that."
But Mr Crowley sidestepped Iranian assertions that Geneva had been a "victory" for Tehran and that the Istanbul talks would not focus on Iran's nuclear programme. The nuclear issue, Mr Crowley said, "is something that remains at the forefront of our concerns".
Critics in Washington suggested, however, that continued negotiations would not resolve any issues but would instead serve only to give Iran the time it needs to improve its uranium enrichment capabilities.
"The bottom line is that engagement with Iran gives new legitimacy to the Islamic republic so it can stall, using negotiations as a pretext to demonstrate to the world that it is willing to compromise, while at the same time it continues to enrich uranium to higher and higher levels," said Raymond Tanter, who teaches terrorism and proliferation at Georgetown University.
Mr Tanter, who served on the senior staff of the National Security Council in the Reagan administration, suggested that the Obama administration should begin to seriously explore a regime-change option led by the Iranian diaspora and remove groups such as the National Council of Resistance of Iran, a Paris-based opposition group, from the US list of foreign terrorist organisations.
In the meantime, he said, the administration should use engagement as a means to hold together the international coalition in the short term with a view to imposing tougher sanctions on Iran.
If that should not work, "the military option will move from the back burner to the front burner, and I would hope that the regime-change option would move from the floor to the table."
But others suggested that a military option would be counterproductive.
"Military action wouldn't necessarily slow down the [nuclear] process that much," said William Hartung, the director of the Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation.
"It would create huge enmity not just on the part of the government but of the Iranian people toward the US and probably Israel, depending on who carried it out. So I don't really see any upside."
Mr Hartung said the very fact that the parties were back talking was "promising" and, while he conceded that securing a deal with Tehran would be challenging, "if the right incentives are laid out, it's not out of the question".
Observers also disagreed on how far along Iran was with its nuclear effort. In April this year, US Gen James Cartwright, the vice joint chiefs of staff chair, told Congress that Iran was three to five years from building a nuclear bomb. But that estimate has remained the same since 1995 and Mr Hartung suggested that Iran's capability remained limited.
"They've had problems with the centrifuges," he said. "They've been working with nuclear technology for quite a while so far with quite limited results. The notion that they are going to make any immediate breakout from civilian to military uses of nuclear technology I think has generally been overstated."
okarmi@thenational.ae
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
SERIES INFO
Afghanistan v Zimbabwe, Abu Dhabi Sunshine Series
All matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Test series
1st Test: Zimbabwe beat Afghanistan by 10 wickets
2nd Test: Wednesday, 10 March – Sunday, 14 March
Play starts at 9.30am
T20 series
1st T20I: Wednesday, 17 March
2nd T20I: Friday, 19 March
3rd T20I: Saturday, 20 March
TV
Supporters in the UAE can watch the matches on the Rabbithole channel on YouTube
Company%20profile
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Match info
Uefa Nations League Group B:
England v Spain, Saturday, 11.45pm (UAE)
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre V6
Power: 295hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 355Nm at 5,200rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
Price: Dh179,999-plus
On sale: now
Dolittle
Director: Stephen Gaghan
Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen
One-and-a-half out of five stars
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
if you go
The flights
Fly direct to Kutaisi with Flydubai from Dh925 return, including taxes. The flight takes 3.5 hours. From there, Svaneti is a four-hour drive. The driving time from Tbilisi is eight hours.
The trip
The cost of the Svaneti trip is US$2,000 (Dh7,345) for 10 days, including food, guiding, accommodation and transfers from and to Tbilisi or Kutaisi. This summer the TCT is also offering a 5-day hike in Armenia for $1,200 (Dh4,407) per person. For further information, visit www.transcaucasiantrail.org/en/hike/
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
FULL%20FIGHT%20CARD
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Match info
Liverpool 3
Hoedt (10' og), Matip (21'), Salah (45 3')
Southampton 0
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
Blue%20Beetle
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MATCH DETAILS
Chelsea 4
Jorginho (4 pen, 71 pen), Azpilicueta (63), James (74)
Ajax 4
Abraham (2 og), Promes (20). Kepa (35 og), van de Beek (55)
Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: From Dh280,000
Team Angel Wolf Beach Blast takes place every Wednesday between 4:30pm and 5:30pm
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
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COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47