CHENNAI // Between 2014 and 2016, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi cultivated a strong personal relationship with US president Barack Obama. From the outside, the two leaders appeared to enjoy a genuine friendship with frequent meetings, fraternal hugs and warm words.
Now, Mr Modi must try to replicate that cordiality with Mr Obama’s erratic successor, Donald Trump.
The Indian prime minister landed in the United States on Saturday evening, beginning a two-day visit through which he hopes to forge a relationship with Mr Trump, and to build on the economic and defence ties he established with Mr Obama.
As Mr Modi put it on Twitter on Friday: “Strong India-USA ties benefit our nations & the world.”
The two leaders will meet for the first time on Monday at the White House. Mr Modi will also meet US secretary of state Rex Tillerson and US secretary of defence James Mattis.
On Sunday, Mr Modi will first meet the CEOs of several prominent companies, including Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, and Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google — both of Indian-origin. The prime minister will also attend a reception thrown by the Indian community in Washington, DC.
However, his focus will be on his first encounter with Mr Trump, for whom a personal connection matters more than consensus on bilateral issues.
"Modi's top priority will be to establish a personal rapport with the US president," Constantino Xavier, a foreign policy fellow at the Indian arm of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in New Delhi, told The National.
“All other substantive bilateral issues will depend on the degree to which both leaders will be able to create chemistry and see eye-to-eye on key challenges, including how to contain China and re-engage Russia ... or if both countries should continue to expand their economic and defence partnership.”
On foreign policy in particular, Mr Trump has “sidelined the state department and other agencies”, Mr Xavier said. “This is beyond any previous presidential centralisation of powers in the United States.”
The Chinese and Japanese have responded to this and “for example, played the personality card very astutely, reaching out to Trump’s family and winning over his attention,” he added. “Modi will have two options: to engage in similar adulation, seeking to submissively gain Trump’s trust, or alternatively go for a hardball approach, transactionally setting out India’s core interests.”
Among these core interests is the economic and trade relationship between the two countries.
Mr Modi has championed his “Make in India” programme with a view to turning his country into a manufacturing shop for the rest of the world. But Mr Trump too, with his own “America First” agenda, has promised repeatedly to bring manufacturing jobs back from overseas to the US.
“India will seek to convey that projects under ‘Make in India’ will not automatically result in job losses in the US,” said Sanjay Pulipaka, a fellow at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, a New Delhi-based think tank.
The H-1B visa programme — under which thousands of Indians, particularly IT workers, find temporary employment in the US — will feature prominently in discussions, Mr Pulipaka added. It comes as Mr Trump intends to curb the number of H-1B visas issued, as a way of boosting domestic employment.
Mr Modi will also discuss the Defence Trade and Technology Initiative, launched in 2012 during the Obama presidency, to expand trade in defence material between the two countries. Since 2008, India and the US have signed US$15 billion (Dh55.1bn) in defence contracts.
As a pre-visit sweetener, the US on Thursday approved the sale of 22 Guardian drones to the Indian air force, a deal worth $2bn to $3bn. But part of Mr Modi’s Make in India initiative is to manufacture more defence equipment at home, to broaden the country’s industrial base.
The Indian delegation also want to gain a sense of Mr Trump’s strategic plans in India’s neighbourhood, and whether he wants to keep on maintaining the balance of power in that part of Asia, as the US has done for decades.
Over the years, India has carefully consolidated support from figures within the Washington establishment, winning bipartisan backing for trade and defence cooperation from members of congress. But however shaky Mr Trump’s presidency may appear day-to-day, he is still the locus of power in the US capital.
“The president of the United States, irrespective of our likes and dislikes, will have an ability to affect power-politics in distant parts of the world till the last day he is in power,” Mr Pulipaka said. “Therefore it becomes important for the Indian leadership to build good rapport with president Trump and his team.”
SSubramanian@thenational.ae
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Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
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Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
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Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
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Emergency
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Rating: 2/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
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- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
SUZUME
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The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
