The global order will shift dramatically over the next two decades as US hegemony wanes and eastern powers emerge as key players in a world that will be increasingly torn by conflicts over land, water and food.
By the year 2025, a "massive shift of wealth", will see China, India and Russia join the United States as major economic powers, according to a report released by the US-based National Intelligence Council. It will also provide opportunities for Gulf countries, such as the UAE, to play a pivotal role in world politics.
The 121 page report, entitled Global Trends 2025 ? A Transformed World, is intended to provide a basis for policy assessment for the White House and intelligence community.
"The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue," the report said. "The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant."
It also warned of a rise in organised crime, a growing likelihood of nuclear conflict and resource grab as countries try to shore up supplies of scarce commodities.
In a world where the US will no longer be able to act unilaterally, the Gulf could see itself in an important position, acting as a bridge between East and West, according to Mark Allworthy, a Dubai-based research analyst for the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"The Gulf countries will become increasingly influential, with India and China and the West almost battling to strengthen relationships with the region," he said. "I think they will be in a strong brokering position."
The global financial crisis may further cement the importance of states on the Arabian peninsula who have benefited from "windfall profits" after high oil prices, the report said.
"If China, Russia, and Mideast oil exporters can avoid internal crises, they will be in a position to leverage their likely still sizeable reserves, buying foreign assets and providing direct financial assistance to still-struggling countries for political favours or to seed new regional initiative."
By 2025, an alternative and viable energy source to oil and gas is likely to have been discovered, the report said.
It highlighted Saudi Arabia as the biggest loser in a "post-petroleum world" as it will be forced to tighten up on costs of the royal establishment and could face tension from some factions if it tries to implement economic reforms such as encouraging women into the workforce. The smaller Gulf states, which have been diversifying their economies, are likely to manage the transition well, it added.
Heavy investment in renewable energy programmes may also mean that the Gulf is more cushioned than one might expect from a shift away from oil, Mr Allworthy said.
"The Gulf is one of the regions in the world taking the lead on alternative energy," he said. "For example, Abu Dhabi has invested huge amounts of wealth around the world; they are prepared for this."
The scarcity of resources such as food, water and energy poses a major challenge for all of the GCC countries, as their total population is set to double to nearly 60 million by 2030 from 30 million in 2000. The UAE currently imports nearly 85 per cent of its food and is already looking overseas to boost its reserves. The Government of Abu Dhabi is now looking to agricultural investment projects in countries such as Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Egypt and has agreed to buy farmland in Sudan.
"The Gulf will be one of the worst hit by growing food shortages and there's a need for strategic planning of food security," said Eckart Woertz, an economic programme manager at the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai.
The report predicts a world where there is a higher risk of nuclear conflict and non-Arab Muslim states such as Iran, Turkey and Indonesia may be central players. It said that although Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear Iran may spark an arms-race in the region.
"It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear-weapons capable Iran," it said.
Theodore Karasik, director of research and development at the Institute for Near Eastern and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai agreed that Iran could be a "robust competitor" on the global scene.
Anwar Gargash, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, on Thursday night urged a high-powered audience at the annual conference of the Middle East Institute in Washington, to include the UAE in what may become the biggest foreign policy shift of Barack Obama's administration: resuming diplomatic relations with Iran. Mr Gargash said he sees a chance for the UAE to play a vital role in any future talks.
"We are neighbours, we share a waterway, communication has been easy."
lmorris@thenationl.ae
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Barbie
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WISH
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
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EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
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Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Kat Wightman's tips on how to create zones in large spaces
- Area carpets or rugs are the easiest way to segregate spaces while also unifying them.
- Lighting can help define areas. Try pendant lighting over dining tables, and side and floor lamps in living areas.
- Keep the colour palette the same in a room, but combine different tones and textures in different zone. A common accent colour dotted throughout the space brings it together.
- Don’t be afraid to use furniture to break up the space. For example, if you have a sofa placed in the middle of the room, a console unit behind it will give good punctuation.
- Use a considered collection of prints and artworks that work together to form a cohesive journey.
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
Tori Amos
Native Invader
Decca
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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