US and Russia locked in proxy battle over the fate of Maduro regime in Venezuela

With US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo set to meet his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Finland next week, the rising tension between the two countries in Venezuela will be at the centre stage of those discussions. The US and Russia are locked in an escalating war of words and what increasingly looks as a zero-sum game over Venezuela. Washington has doubled down on its support for opposition leader Juan Guaido in the face of a stubborn Russian backing for the Nicholas Maduro regime. The regime has been under increasing international pressure since protests broke out in mid-2017, and the US along with the majority of the European countries and those in the Western Hemisphere have recognised Mr Guaido as interim President in January. White House press secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters that US President Donald Trump spoke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for over an hour on Friday. The two leaders discussed the standoff in Venezuela. For Washington, a central element of its strategy in Venezuela is explained in the Monroe doctrine that dates back to the early 19th century. US National Security Advisor John Bolton reiterated this week that the doctrine is “alive and well” in the Trump administration. In essence, it’s based on the concept that the US would act and intervene in the Western Hemisphere to protect its interests in its own backyard. "It is impossible that the allied powers should extend their political system to any portion of either continent without endangering our peace and happiness; nor can anyone believe that our southern brethren, if left to themselves, would adopt it of their own accord,” former US President James Monroe defined it in 1823. In reality, this means the US could employ - besides economic pressure and supporting the opposition in Venezuela - military options in defending its interests. US acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan cancelled his travel this week and instead met with Mr Pompeo and Mr Bolton on Friday to discuss the military options in Venezuela. Dispatching an aircraft carrier, or deploying US troops to help with humanitarian efforts are among the options being discussed in the administration. Domestically, opposing Mr Maduro will only boost Mr Trump’s credentials among the Venezuelan expatriate community in the swing state of Florida. But in doing so, the US would be engaging in a proxy confrontation with Russia, a main financial, security and political backer of Mr Maduro. In an interview this week with CNN , Mr Pompeo accused Russia of intervening to stop Mr Maduro from fleeing the country as his political rival called for a military uprising to oust the government in Caracas. Russia’s foreign ministry dismissed the accusation outright. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the claim amounted to “fake news.” Mr Lavrov said there was no truth behind Mr Pompeo’s finger-pointing. On Thursday, Mr Lavrov told reporters that Russia’s vision for Venezuela was incompatible with that of the United States. “I don’t see how you can combine two positions.” Since Juan Guaido announced his bid to oust Mr Maduro in January, injecting a renewed urgency into protests against the government, Russia has emerged as an unwavering international backer of the Venezuelan leader. Russian mercenaries reportedly flew to Caracas shortly after Mr Guido’s announcement as part of efforts to shore up Mr Maduro’s hold on power in a move that alarmed Western officials. The Kremlin has leaned on private fighters in its conflicts in Ukraine and Syria and their deployment in Venezuela sparked concerns over how far Russia was willing to go to prop up Mr Maduro’s rule. So far, however, the bulk of Moscow’s aid has come in the form of cash handouts. Russian investments in Venezuela’s oil industry in recent years have served as a key economic lifeline for Mr Maduro’s government, which relies heavily on oil revenues. Since the US imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s national oil corporation in January, Russia’s state oil company has reportedly come to PDVSA’s aid by accepting payments from buyers on behalf of the Venezuelan company. Rosneft, the Russian oil giant denied the reports and called on the Reuters news agency to be expelled from the country for “systematically creating and disseminating disinformation” with the intention of damaging the Russian state. Pavel Luzin, a Russian security expert, says that the Kremlin’s efforts to buttress Mr Maduro have little to do with securing Russian investments in Venezuela, which amount to some $4 billion. He noted that Russian companies were failing to recoup their investments even with the Venezuelan leader in power. Rather, Mr Luzin said, Russia’s goal is to play devil’s advocate in a region allied to the US and Europe. Moscow is trying to “create trouble” for the West, and to delegitimise their foreign policy and, moreover, their “foreign political principles.” What’s more, Mr Luzin said, the Kremlin wants to show Russians at home, who are increasingly disenchanted after nearly two decades of Putin’s leadership, that violent overthrows only lead to further instability. “Russia wants to delegitimise the idea of revolution and the idea of political changes through the people's will,” he added.

US and Russia locked in proxy battle over the fate of Maduro regime in Venezuela

Washington is increasingly referencing the Monroe doctrine as basis for intervention