WASHINGTON // If you want to know what is happening in the US presidential race, read the polls: John McCain is up by 10. He is up by 5. He is down by 1. The race is tied.
And that is just in the past several days.
Such is the perplexing world of pre-election public opinion surveys, offered up by news organisations from CNN to USA Today almost as often as Barack Obama and now his rival, Mr McCain, invoke the word "change". There are polls on favourability, who can handle the economy or Iraq better, who is more trustworthy and, of course, the old standard: which candidate is ahead.
But all of them come with a caveat, or should: beware.
"You can pick any two polls you want, or any five polls you want, and tell any story you want of what is going on in this election," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster in Washington.
Except, perhaps, the story of what will actually happen on Election Day.
Those who follow public opinion research say this year could be the trickiest yet for pollsters to get it right. Already there have been some noticeable misses; pollsters across the board predicted victory for Mr Obama in the New Hampshire primary, which Hillary Clinton won.
This year's presidential election features a few firsts for which pollsters have no model for predicting voter behaviour: Mr Obama is the first black major-party nominee and Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor, is the first female No 2 on a Republican ticket.
Along with how race and gender might play, also at issue is how to accurately forecast which voters will turn out.
Young, first-time voters - who historically have not shown up in large numbers but did so during the primaries - and African-Americans could change the outcome of the race.
Even with its rigorous sampling methods and weighting models, polling is not merely a science, leaving plenty of room for error, especially in a year with so many complicating factors. Response rates to polls, normally done by random dialling of home telephone numbers, are down in general, which could skew results; even the fact that many people now have only mobile service has changed the game.
"There's a lot of art to it," said Richard A Kulka, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Of pollsters' work, he added: "There are certainly reasons to believe that life is more complicated, and will be, in the current election. And of course we won't know that until the results are in."
Pollsters invariably say they are not prognosticators; rather, they provide a "snapshot" of the way things stand at a given point in time. Still, everyone wants to know: who will win?
Mr Kulka's group is studying how and why pollsters were so far off in New Hampshire; hypotheses have ranged from underestimating the number of undecided voters, to a latent racism in an overwhelmingly white electorate, to a last-minute swing toward Mrs Clinton after she turned tearful in a candid moment on the campaign trail.
David W Moore spent 13 years as a top editor and executive at the Gallup Organization, one of the most respected names in US polling. His time there led him to this conclusion: pollsters do not just capture public opinion, at times they actually create it. In his book The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls, he argues that polls are not a very accurate reflection of what the public really thinks.
"We're more interested in creating a public opinion that is plausible and that is useful for enhancing news stories," said Mr Moore, a senior fellow at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute who writes a blog called "Sceptical Pollster".
Mr Moore cites as an example what he calls the "myth" of widespread public support for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Polling before the invasion generally showed US residents backed it by a margin of 2 to 1. But, according to Mr Moore, that was in large part because the question was often framed in language that referred to the removal of Saddam Hussein. In an experimental follow-up, using different questions, Mr Moore found that solid support for the invasion was closer to 30 per cent, which he suggests could have had a profound effect on public policy.
Mr Moore said pollsters often ask questions of a public not engaged enough in policy issues to answer them, and pressure people to choose a particular candidate - at least for the survey's purposes - even when they are unsure who they will ultimately support. And two different pollsters can poll on the same topic and essentially get opposite results.
"You know you can manipulate results of opinion polls if you ask the question in a different way," he said. "You can't create anything you want, but there's a wide latitude to the responses you can get."
There is little doubt the contest between Mr Obama and Mr McCain has tightened in the past month. But the post-convention bounce the Republican enjoyed in the polls has been generally treated with some scepticism, as most candidates tend to get one that, over time, fades away.
George F Bishop, a University of Cincinnati political scientist and author of The Illusion of Public Opinion: Fact and Artefact in Public Opinion Polls, says that, historically, pollsters have been fairly accurate, at least if you judge them by their final polls before election day (pollsters are treated much like weathermen: when they get the forecast right, they get none of the credit, and when they get it wrong, they receive all of the blame).
Still, Mr Bishop says not to pay too much attention to any single poll. Election Day is still worlds away.
"Regard it as just a lot of noise, a lot of volatile noise," he said. "Don't take it seriously - yet."
eniedowski@thenational.ae
Gender pay parity on track in the UAE
The UAE has a good record on gender pay parity, according to Mercer's Total Remuneration Study.
"In some of the lower levels of jobs women tend to be paid more than men, primarily because men are employed in blue collar jobs and women tend to be employed in white collar jobs which pay better," said Ted Raffoul, career products leader, Mena at Mercer. "I am yet to see a company in the UAE – particularly when you are looking at a blue chip multinationals or some of the bigger local companies – that actively discriminates when it comes to gender on pay."
Mr Raffoul said most gender issues are actually due to the cultural class, as the population is dominated by Asian and Arab cultures where men are generally expected to work and earn whereas women are meant to start a family.
"For that reason, we see a different gender gap. There are less women in senior roles because women tend to focus less on this but that’s not due to any companies having a policy penalising women for any reasons – it’s a cultural thing," he said.
As a result, Mr Raffoul said many companies in the UAE are coming up with benefit package programmes to help working mothers and the career development of women in general.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The five pillars of Islam
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Scores
New Zealand 266 for 9 in 50 overs
Pakistan 219 all out in 47.2 overs
New Zealand win by 47 runs
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
Alwyn Stephen says much of his success is a result of taking an educated chance on business decisions.
His advice to anyone starting out in business is to have no fear as life is about taking on challenges.
“If you have the ambition and dream of something, follow that dream, be positive, determined and set goals.
"Nothing and no-one can stop you from succeeding with the right work application, and a little bit of luck along the way.”
Mr Stephen sells his luxury fragrances at selected perfumeries around the UAE, including the House of Niche Boutique in Al Seef.
He relaxes by spending time with his family at home, and enjoying his wife’s India cooking.
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
Brolliology: A History of the Umbrella in Life and Literature
By Marion Rankine
Melville House
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
Company%20profile
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
