Benjamin Netanyahu, ever the master of political manoeuvres, has done it again. Last week, just before the Israeli parliament was about to ratify a call for new elections, the Kadima Party announced that it had completed negotiations with the prime minister and would join the government, creating Israel's largest governing coalition in its history (including 94 of 120 members of the Knesset).
The announcement sent shock waves throughout the region and in the US, with no shortage of speculation about what the sudden move meant.
In the days that followed, the views of Arab, Israeli and American commentators attempted to make sense of this new development. Many Arab commentators predictably saw this new Israeli "unity" as a danger, and a harbinger of a regional war. And they didn't mince words. Seeing a precedent in the Israeli coalition government that was formed before the 1967 war, one Arab analyst wrote "this is a war coalition", claiming that the target would be Iran or Lebanon.
The US press, also delusional when it comes to all things Israel, for the most part saw this broader Israeli government as a positive development. Liberals moralised that with an expanded mandate, Mr Netanyahu should now be in a position to move confidently towards a peace settlement with the Palestinians. "Under Netanyahu, Israel is stronger than ever" ran the refrain.
This echoed the somewhat subtle chiding of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who reportedly suggested that Mr Netanyahu could no longer claim that he would lose his governing coalition if he made peace. He is now in a political position that gives him the space at least to help to strengthen the Palestinian Authority.
American neoconservatives, on the other hand, shared the general Arab view on Mr Netanyahu's move, but with a twist. While Arab writers dreaded a war, US hawks appeared to eagerly anticipate it.
Most interesting and sanguine were the Israeli commentators who saw the manoeuvres of both Mr Netanyahu and his new "partner", Shaul Mofaz, the relatively new leader of Kadima, as signs of weakness rather than strength. This led many Israeli commentators to conclude that, far from setting the stage for decisive action, this new government was doomed to paralysis.
Mr Netanyahu is facing two immediate internal challenges that were threatening his rightist coalition. Within a few weeks, the government must act on two separate court decisions. One decision ruled that the law exempting ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis from military service was unconstitutional; and the other ruling ordered the government to evacuate an illegal settlement built on Palestinian-owned land north of Ramallah by the beginning of July.
Taking action on one or both of these rulings would have caused a rupture in the previous coalition and caused some members to bolt. Meanwhile, the third-largest group in the government, the Russian-immigrant based nationalist party, Yisrael Beiteinu, headed by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, had threatened to leave if the government failed to enforce the court order on ultra-Orthodox military service. All of these factors had Mr Netanyahu in a bind.
By broadening the base of his coalition, Mr Netanyahu has negated the leverage these groups held in their threats to withdraw support - since they no longer have the ability to topple the government. His motives, it appears, were more about survival than policy. So rather than lead by taking decisive action, Mr Netanyahu has accepted the lifeline offered by Mr Mofaz and can continue to govern by playing one group against another.
The leader of Kadima appeared to be similarly motivated by political survival. In March, Mr Mofaz won the contest to lead the party, which was founded in 2005 based on the personal aspirations and so-called charisma of Ariel Sharon, but he has seen his fortunes dramatically fade. Most recent polls show that in new elections, Kadima would win a mere 10 seats in the Knesset, down from the party's current 28.
Entering into a coalition with a man that he recently called a liar, Mr Mofaz appeared to be making a safer bet than facing humiliation at the polls.
Mrs Clinton is right: the game is up. Mr Netanyahu can no longer use the lame excuse he has relied on for years. He has, if he wishes, the numbers within, and outside his coalition, to make peace. But sadly, the Israeli commentators who know him best also have it right: his political manoeuvres are based on a wily promotion of paralysis to avoid peace at all cost.
The best evidence of this strategy is that his response to the court decision to evacuate the illegal settlement was to propose new legislation to "legalise" what is illegal. No one should be holding their breath expecting big things, either bad or good, from this big new government. That was not what brought the coalition into being. Expect, instead, business as usual.
And so after all the drama of the past week, the nervous speculation and excited expectation (depending on the lens through which events were viewed), little has changed for better or worse. As my friend MJ Rosenberg wrote in the Huffington Post, it was all "much ado about nothing".
James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute
On Twitter: @aaiusa
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Dubai Women's Tour teams
Agolico BMC
Andy Schleck Cycles-Immo Losch
Aromitalia Basso Bikes Vaiano
Cogeas Mettler Look
Doltcini-Van Eyck Sport
Hitec Products – Birk Sport
Kazakhstan National Team
Kuwait Cycling Team
Macogep Tornatech Girondins de Bordeaux
Minsk Cycling Club
Pannonia Regional Team (Fehérvár)
Team Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Team Ciclotel
UAE Women’s Team
Under 23 Kazakhstan Team
Wheel Divas Cycling Team
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The%20specs%3A%20Taycan%20Turbo%20GT
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
Company%20Profile
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The%20specs
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Secret Pigeon Service: Operation Colomba, Resistance and the Struggle to Liberate Europe
Gordon Corera, Harper Collins
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
if you go
The flights
Flydubai flies to Podgorica or nearby Tivat via Sarajevo from Dh2,155 return including taxes. Turkish Airlines flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Podgorica via Istanbul; alternatively, fly with Flydubai from Dubai to Belgrade and take a short flight with Montenegro Air to Podgorica. Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Podgorica via Belgrade. Flights cost from about Dh3,000 return including taxes. There are buses from Podgorica to Plav.
The tour
While you can apply for a permit for the route yourself, it’s best to travel with an agency that will arrange it for you. These include Zbulo in Albania (www.zbulo.org) or Zalaz in Montenegro (www.zalaz.me).
The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
Princeton
Meghan%20podcast
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