Opec's 12 member countries earned about US$1 trillion (Dh3.67tn) from oil last year.
As we sit down to consider the prospects for this year, I resist the looming necessity to open my belt out to the next hole in hopeful anticipation of living up to my new year's resolutions as it strikes me that, unlike a year ago when global economic recovery was the plat du jour, this year already has a feeling of greater austerity.
The convergence of what were once faraway hypotheticals - euro collapse, double-dip recession, Chinese slowdown, drumbeat of conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, peak oil production - are emerging as all too real on the horizon.
Yet the world appears paralysed, watching these slow-motion accidents unravel before its very eyes without access to any reflexes to introduce corrective measures. Perhaps that's what it feels like to be literally on the edge of a cliff with no options.
Analysts are advising investors to prepare for a worst-case scenario. A recent UBS wealth management note to clients warns: "What to buy in case of euro-zone break-up: precious metals, tinned food and small-calibre weapons".
Mohamed El Arian, the Egyptian-American chief executive of Pimco, has applied a somewhat appropriate description to this counter-intuitive period in which we live - the era of the "new normal", in which contradictory forces can coexist: US$100 oil and record corporate profits with record unemployment; frenzied capitalist economics with communist governance; an emerging federalist but somewhat undemocratic Europe.
For us in the Gulf, there is a question as to whether we have moved into a new epoch of triple-digit crude oil prices, allowing countries and companies to plan with some certainty - most Gulf states are increasingly inching their annual budgets closer and closer to $100 oil.
Listening to the dour new year's messages from the "Merkozy" duet, one could be forgiven for projecting that we are destined for another roller coaster ride reminiscent of the 2008-2009 collapse, when oil fell like a rock from $150 to $30 a barrel.
There are certainly strong narratives to support both paths up and down the mountain - demand erosion with recession in the EU and slowdown in China versus limited increase in production capacity with noises of unrest across the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia's better-than-expected budget surplus provides all the positive indicators one would desire for tomorrow's government expenditure - that is if oil can continue to defy gravity and stay propped up out of harm's way high in a tree nest of $100 a barrel.
But it is a brave man who bets against Newton's thesis. Editors scrambled for new metaphors to describe uprisings across the Middle East, the tsunami in Japan and floods in Australia.
As the Lebanese-American economic philosopher Nassim Taleb might say, we have certainly had our fair share of black swans - random unpredictable events that can have a huge impact on our lives - which last year triggered an oil windfall of $100 a barrel across the Gulf.
One side of the brain shouts "long may it last", and at the same time the sober side whispers "be careful what you ask for". Any escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz would be costly for us on this side of the Gulf.
The Dow Jones, FTSE 100 and other stock market indexes, while essentially flat last year, have held their 100 per cent gains since the 2008-2009 crash, and brokers are saying it's "back to the races".
And yet I find it difficult to completely swallow the "new normal", as we are still caught in a supply-demand imbalance of far too many questions and very few answers.
Sean Evers is a managing partner of TheGulfIntelligence.com and the former Middle East bureau chief of Bloomberg News & TV
SPECS
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'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Most wanted allegations
- Benjamin Macann, 32: involvement in cocaine smuggling gang.
- Jack Mayle, 30: sold drugs from a phone line called the Flavour Quest.
- Callum Halpin, 27: over the 2018 murder of a rival drug dealer.
- Asim Naveed, 29: accused of being the leader of a gang that imported cocaine.
- Calvin Parris, 32: accused of buying cocaine from Naveed and selling it on.
- John James Jones, 31: allegedly stabbed two people causing serious injuries.
- Callum Michael Allan, 23: alleged drug dealing and assaulting an emergency worker.
- Dean Garforth, 29: part of a crime gang that sold drugs and guns.
- Joshua Dillon Hendry, 30: accused of trafficking heroin and crack cocain.
- Mark Francis Roberts, 28: grievous bodily harm after a bungled attempt to steal a £60,000 watch.
- James ‘Jamie’ Stevenson, 56: for arson and over the seizure of a tonne of cocaine.
- Nana Oppong, 41: shot a man eight times in a suspected gangland reprisal attack.
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
Oppenheimer
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Company%20Profile
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Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
THE LOWDOWN
Romeo Akbar Walter
Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher
