Azerbaijan's gas importance rises as EU and Turkey grow more dependent

Azerbaijan’s Absheron Peninsula, poking into the Caspian Sea, is the site of one of the world’s oldest oil booms, with petroleum dug out by hand even before drilling began. The capital Baku is preparing for a new energy future, hosting the Cop29 climate conference in November. But for now, it is neither oil nor renewables that are crucial – but Azerbaijan’s gas, with Adnoc and Masdar now influential partners.

Four countries are important exporters of gas by pipeline to Europe: Russia, Iran, Algeria and Azerbaijan. Russia has largely written itself out of the market since late 2021, but a trickle of gas still goes through Ukraine. The contract expires at the end of this year and is unlikely to be renewed.

Ukrainian forces have caught Moscow off guard by advancing into Russia since Tuesday, including taking control of the Sudzha gas transit point. Although Ukraine could have cut off the gas flows if it wished, there is the risk of physical damage to the infrastructure or Russian retaliation.

Russia remains an important supplier to Turkey through undersea pipelines. From Turkey. Russian gas also enters the continental European market.

Iran and Algeria, whose exports are constrained by a mix of underinvestment in new production, rising domestic consumption, and political disputes.

In Azerbaijan, pipelines run from its offshore fields through Georgia to Erzurum in eastern Turkey. From there, some gas goes into the Turkish market, while another portion travels through the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (Tanap), which opened in 2018, and goes to western Turkey, where it connects to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (Tap), running across Greece and Albania to Italy.

Azerbaijan’s importance to Turkey has grown recently, as it sends about 1 billion cubic metres monthly, out of total monthly Turkish imports that range from 3 billion cubic metres in summer to 6 billion cubic metres in winter.

EU gas imports have dropped dramatically since the start of the war in Ukraine. The importance of Azerbaijan has proportionately risen: it meets about 4 per cent of the bloc’s imports currently, only a bit less than the remaining Russian gas via Ukraine.

Since 2022, European gas prices have fallen and have been quite moderate and stable since mid-2023. Still, they remain well above pre-crisis levels, hovering at about $11 per million British thermal units, up from an average of about $7 in 2018-19.

Recently, they have reached their highest level since 1 December, unusual for the summer period. This reflects security concerns, maintenance on some systems in Norway, but also competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies with Asia, which has cranked up air-conditioning to deal with heatwaves. Further hurricanes blowing through the US Gulf of Mexico could interrupt LNG supplies, while the effective closure of the Red Sea by Houthi attacks hampers LNG deliveries from the Middle East to Europe.

The EU has plans to keep using the transit through Ukraine, as a sop to Kremlin-curious Hungary and Slovakia, which still rely on that route. One idea is to secure a deal with Azerbaijan, sending its gas through Russia, or at least to swap some quantity of Azeri gas for Russian. That has the attraction for the EU and Ukraine to eliminate payments to Moscow, although it would still garner transit fees.

This deal could fall foul of the fighting around Sudzha. Ukraine’s state gas company says that Azerbaijan can only provide about 2 billion cubic metres extra compared to the 12 billion cubic metres of Russian gas which went through Ukraine last year.

This underlines the challenge for the EU in relying more on Baku. Azerbaijan’s gas production is limited and its own consumption has been rising fairly rapidly, at a rate of about 5 per cent annually over the last decade.

That’s where the Abu Dhabi companies come in. The Absheron field is a large offshore gas accumulation about 100km south-east of the eponymous peninsula, which began producing last July. The first phase yields 1.5 billion cubic metres per year for the domestic market, and the second phase should grow output to 5.5 billion cubic metres. Last August, Adnoc acquired a 30 per cent stake from the existing partners, Azeri state company Socar and France’s TotalEnergies.

This was one of the Abu Dhabi corporation’s first overseas gas deals and, alongside a deal with BP in Egypt, gave it a role in gas supply to Europe. BP and Socar have other potential gas projects that might offer scope for co-operation.

Absheron lies just to the east of BP-operated Shah Deniz, Azerbaijan’s largest gasfield, and the main source of its current exports. In June, the Hungarian state electricity company, MVM, aiming to secure its gas supplies, bought 5 per cent in Shah Deniz from an Azeri government-Socar joint venture.

One other alternative to boost supplies from Azerbaijan is to transit gas from Turkmenistan, its eastern neighbour across the Caspian, which has the world’s fourth-largest reserves, but few export outlets. Central Asian energy ministers held their first-ever joint meeting in Kazakhstan on Tuesday, though only the deputy minister from Azerbaijan and the Turkmen ambassador to Kazakhstan represented their countries.

In 2021, the two nations agreed to develop the shared Dostluk field in the Caspian, possibly permitting a cross-border gas pipeline. In June, Turkey and Azerbaijan agreed to work to allow gas deliveries from Turkmenistan.

Masdar has also been working with Azerbaijan to develop wind, solar and hydrogen projects. In October, it finished a 230-megawatt solar farm and started building 1 gigawatt of solar and wind projects in June. These should replace some domestic gas consumption.

In June, Maryam Al Mazrouei, Masdar’s head of development and investment for the region, said the company was studying the use of gas pipelines to deliver green hydrogen to Europe. That prospect is still a few years away.

Alongside this, Azerbaijan needs more export capacity, since Tanap and Tap are nearly full. Europe will have to make long-term commitments to buy gas if it wants them to be expanded, but it has been reluctant, because of net-zero carbon goals. The promise of future hydrogen supplies might salve consciences in Brussels. Cop29 will be a good venue to attempt to square the circle of climate and energy security.

Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis