US President Donald Trump's strategy to expand domestic energy production and exports – by fast-tracking permits, easing climate regulations and introducing tax cuts – will encounter major hurdles, experts say.
These challenges include changing market realities, as well as Mr Trump's own policies, such as rolling back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and initiating trade wars with China and key allies, they suggest.
Following the declaration of a national energy emergency last month, the US Army Corps of Engineers has released data identifying more than 600 potential infrastructure projects, primarily within the energy sector, that may receive expedited review.
At the Future Investment Initiative Priority Summit in Miami on Wednesday, Mr Trump proposed cutting taxes for US oil and gas producers and allowing companies to expense 100 per cent of investments in domestic factory construction and other capital expenditure.
“The energy dominance agenda starts at home and it is already an uphill struggle against market dynamics,” said Francesco Sassi, research fellow at Ricerche Industriali Energetiche in Bologna. "Trump wants less state intervention and more market influence in shaping the energy strategies of American oil and gas giants."
He promises tax cuts for producers, nudging some to favour the domestic market, “but what if the biggest opportunities lie abroad? Would they quietly accept trade barriers and US isolation?”
Mr Trump’s return has been a mixed bag for energy industry players so far, with tariff threats against Canada and Mexico – the largest suppliers of crude to the US – a move that will shrink margins for American refiners and force them to source crude from other markets.
Meanwhile, most US oil producers are not planning to boost output unless oil prices rise significantly.
“With US shale companies focusing on capital discipline, there are two ways that crude production could grow a bit faster – via a sustained oil price increase or via lower production costs,” Giovanni Staunovo, strategist at UBS, told The National.
Potential tax cuts will create “room to cut costs”, depending on their magnitude, said Mr Staunovo, who has maintained his US crude growth forecast at 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year despite recent developments.
This month, the US Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for 2025 domestic oil production to 13.59 million bpd, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million, citing improved efficiency.
Oil prices have retreated from the highs reached after the Russia-Ukraine war, as western sanctions largely redirected Russian crude flows to the East, particularly China and India.
Dismantling IRA
Last month, the Trump administration ordered federal agencies to “immediately pause the disbursement of funds” under the Inflation Reduction Act, former President Joe Biden’s landmark legislation.
The future of numerous major clean energy projects, which were counting on federal funding and tax breaks, is now unclear.
The IRA also incentivised US oil and gas companies to invest in technology promoted by the legislation.
ExxonMobil’s planned blue hydrogen plant in Baytown, Texas, is expected to reach a final investment decision (FID) this year. The UAE’s Adnoc took a 35 per cent stake in the project last year and plans to transfer that stake to its subsidiary Fertiglobe.
“We're obviously monitoring the geopolitical and regulatory environment right now,” Ahmed El Hoshy, chief executive of Fertiglobe, told The National in an interview last week. "For now, we see that things look like they're still fine in terms of the IRA and what's needed there. We'll be working with our partner ExxonMobil on the FID plans for the project over the next several months."
Occidental Petroleum, a major oil and gas company based in Houston, is lobbying the Trump administration to keep tax credits that support carbon capture and storage, as their first plant is scheduled to begin operations this year.
"President Trump knows the business case for this, I've had several conversations with him," said Vicki Hollub, the company’s chief executive.
LNG impact
Last month, Mr Trump issued an order for the US to resume processing export permit applications for new LNG projects, reversing a ban placed by the previous administration.
However, even as the policy shift aims to boost American LNG exports, escalating trade tension with China threaten to undermine demand.
China’s retaliatory tariffs on US LNG, imposed in response to a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, along with the prospect of an all-out trade war between the two countries, will make Chinese companies cautious about signing new long-term contracts with American LNG projects, analysts say.
Even without the effects of a trade war, increasing the supply of the supercooled fuel to the market will still take years. It typically takes two to five years after the FID for a facility to send out its first commercial shipment.
Future US LNG faces financing uncertainties, ship construction delays and Henry Hub-linked pricing, which makes it less competitive than Qatari LNG, Ruchdi Maalouf, independent arbitrator and a former LNG executive, told The National.
“Increasing gas production can happen fairly quickly, but building a new liquefaction plant takes us beyond Donald Trump's term. There are so many unknowns that it is hard to speculate,” he said.
Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy had earlier predicted that Mr Trump’s pro-energy agenda could help nearly double US LNG export capacity to 22.4 billion cubic per day (bcfd) in 2030, from 11.3 bcfd in 2023.
Opec policy
At the FII summit, Mr Trump thanked Saudi Arabia for hosting talks between Washington and Moscow last week, describing the kingdom as a “special place with special leaders.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has vowed to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years.
The US President’s remarks followed his call this month for Opec+ to increase crude production, as the US tightened sanctions on Iranian and Russian exports. However, the group left its production policy unchanged at its meeting on February 3.
The Opec+ group, which includes Russia, has withheld 5.86 million bpd of supply from the market, including voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million bpd that will be gradually eased, starting in April.
“We expect sanctions to force Iranian production lower later this year while the potential impact on Russian supply remains uncertain,” Energy Aspects said in research note last week.
Despite US pressure to increase output, Opec+ is expected to maintain current production levels until at least April without “sustained clarity” on sanctions, the consultancy said.
Earlier this month, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged Opec members to unite and prevent the US from pressuring any of them.
MADAME%20WEB
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20S.J.%20Clarkson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Dakota%20Johnson%2C%20Tahar%20Rahim%2C%20Sydney%20Sweeney%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
'Champions'
Director: Manuel Calvo
Stars: Yassir Al Saggaf and Fatima Al Banawi
Rating: 2/5
Bangladesh tour of Pakistan
January 24 – First T20, Lahore
January 25 – Second T20, Lahore
January 27 – Third T20, Lahore
February 7-11 – First Test, Rawalpindi
April 3 – One-off ODI, Karachi
April 5-9 – Second Test, Karachi
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
WORLD RECORD FEES FOR GOALKEEPERS
1) Kepa Arrizabalaga, Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea (£72m)
2) Alisson, Roma to Liverpool (£67m)
3) Ederson, Benfica to Manchester City (£35m)
4) Gianluigi Buffon, Parma to Juventus (£33m)
5) Angelo Peruzzi, Inter Milan to Lazio (£15.7m
FINAL SCORES
Fujairah 130 for 8 in 20 overs
(Sandy Sandeep 29, Hamdan Tahir 26 no, Umair Ali 2-15)
Sharjah 131 for 8 in 19.3 overs
(Kashif Daud 51, Umair Ali 20, Rohan Mustafa 2-17, Sabir Rao 2-26)
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Result:
1. Cecilie Hatteland (NOR) atop Alex - 31.46 seconds
2. Anna Gorbacheva (RUS) atop Curt 13 - 31.82 seconds
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) atop Cash Up - 32.81 seconds
4. Sheikha Latifa bint Ahmed Al Maktoum (UAE) atop Peanuts de Beaufour - 35.85 seconds
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) atop Benur du Romet - 37.53 seconds
6. Annika Sande (NOR) atop For Cash 2 - 31.42 seconds (4 penalties)
Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
