Workers at Jordan Chalk in Karak, south of Amman. The kingdom is trying to overhaul its economy as unemployment rises. AFP
Workers at Jordan Chalk in Karak, south of Amman. The kingdom is trying to overhaul its economy as unemployment rises. AFP
Workers at Jordan Chalk in Karak, south of Amman. The kingdom is trying to overhaul its economy as unemployment rises. AFP
Workers at Jordan Chalk in Karak, south of Amman. The kingdom is trying to overhaul its economy as unemployment rises. AFP

S&P views Jordan's economy as stable despite USAID cuts and regional security risks


Alvin R Cabral
  • English
  • Arabic

Jordan's economy has remained resilient amid regional security risks and being cut off from United States Agency for International Development assistance, resulting in a stable outlook for the aid-reliant economy, ratings agency S&P Global has said.

The kingdom's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit rating was maintained at BB-, the New York-based firm said on Friday.

A BB- rating is “non-investment grade speculative”, three levels below investment grade, according to S&P's scale. Non-investment grade makes it more difficult for a country to access capital markets and raise funding when it wants to borrow.

“Despite the risks associated with Jordan's dependence on overseas assistance, and with the complicated security situation in the region, we note that Jordan has demonstrated resilient economic growth and maintained its fiscal and economic reform efforts,” S&P said

Although Jordan is not directly involved, the conflict between Israel and Hamas is affecting its tourism sector, which is its main foreign currency earner, as well other sectors of the economy.

S&P forecasts Jordan's economic growth at 2.7 per cent in 2025, provided regional security situation stabilises, tourism recovers and trade with Syria and Iraq starts to rise gradually. Tourism alone contributes around 15 per cent to the kingdom's GDP, about three-quarters of which comes from Arab visitors, the ratings firm said.

The economy is forecast to pick up in the following years – towards 3 per cent by 2026 and 2027 – as the economy “readjusts from the shocks it has suffered in recent years due to regional geopolitical developments”.

In February, US President Donald Trump ordered the shutdown of USAID, which sent “ripple effects” across Jordan's economy. The impact is “devastating” for the most vulnerable groups – from refugees to people with disabilities – in the agency's third-biggest aid recipient, the head of one of Jordan's larger non-government organisations told The National at the time.

The order is expected to have far-reaching economic and geopolitical consequences for the kingdom as thousands of workers at USAID, as well as contractors and partner agencies are laid off or put on leave, with life-saving programmes left hanging in the balance.

Despite that, S&P anticipates that Jordan “will be able to manage the immediate impact of the US administration's decision to pause foreign assistance disbursed through USAID”. It noted that about $300 million of annual disbursements are at risk, most of which are project-related.

The US has provided Jordan with total annual support of between $1.45 billion and $1.65 billion, or roughly 3 per cent of GDP, including broader military and budget-related support, S&P said.

“Under our baseline scenario, we assume that much of this will remain in place, as will the support Jordan receives from other international donors and multilateral partners,” it said.

Jordan has faced challenges for years, with Amman trying to overhaul its economy and cut state subsidies as public debt and unemployment rises.

Inflation has slightly picked up, rising to 2.3 per cent in January 2025 from 0.8 per cent in October, and is expected to remain moderate until 2028, S&P said. The International Monetary Fund in December had projected inflation to remain low, at about 2 per cent, in 2024.

While the Jordanian dinar's peg to the US dollar has supported price stability and contained inflation, it also limits the Central Bank of Jordan's ability to manoeuvre its policy because it effectively follows the decisions of the US Federal Reserve, “which may not always be appropriate for Jordan's economic conditions”, the ratings agency said.

The kingdom's unemployment rate is very high at 21.4 per cent as of 2024, amid government reforms to spur economic activity in the medium term, prioritising job creation in the private sector through improvements to the business and investment environment, S&P said.

Jordan still retains access to alternative financing sources, including a $1.2 billion IMF programme and a five-year partnership with the World Bank, which offers indicative funding of $5.67 billion. The EU had also announced a €3 billion ($3.25 billion) aid package for 2025-2027.

With the kingdom having liquid assets equal to 10 per cent of GDP at the end of 2024, “this gives it scope to manoeuvre in funding its budgetary deficits and repaying maturing commercial debt”, S&P said.

Company%C2%A0profile
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Engine: 3.5-litre V6

Power: 272hp at 6,400rpm

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Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.7L/100km

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Profile

Company: Justmop.com

Date started: December 2015

Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan

Sector: Technology and home services

Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai

Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month

Funding:  The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups. 

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UK’s AI plan
  • AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
  • £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
  • £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
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The results of the first round are as follows:

Qais Saied (Independent): 18.4 per cent

Nabil Karoui (Qalb Tounes): 15.58 per cent

Abdelfattah Mourou (Ennahdha party): 12.88 per cent

Abdelkarim Zbidi (two-time defence minister backed by Nidaa Tounes party): 10.7 per cent

Youssef Chahed (former prime minister, leader of Long Live Tunisia): 7.3 per cent

6 UNDERGROUND

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Company Profile

Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

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September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

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The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

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August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

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180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a  month before Reaching the Last Mile.

Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

 

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Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
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Updated: March 09, 2025, 6:34 AM