Analyst reactions to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s surprise decision to replace Central Bank governor Murat Cetinkaya boil down to one issue: credibility has taken a beating.
Rabobank, BlueBay Asset Management, Medley Global Advisors, Nomura International and TD Securities say the decision reminds investors who is in charge of monetary policy in Turkey. It revives concerns about Mr Erdogan’s unorthodox views on economics, including the claim that higher interest rates cause inflation.
The lira will probably fall on Monday, giving bears the justification they needed for keeping bets against the currency at the highest level in the world, according to risk-reversal contracts. They have been waiting patiently on the sidelines as the lira rallied about 8 per cent since early May, more than a percentage point above its nearest competitor.
And government bonds, which handed investors unrivaled returns during the same period, are likely to suffer a similar fate.
Here is what analysts had to say:
Nigel Rendell, a senior analyst at Medley in London:
“It’s undoubtedly bad news for Turkish assets. Once again Erdogan is interfering in the operation of the central bank because he thinks he knows best, which he doesn’t.
“The likelihood of a sell-off in the lira brings any near-term rate cut into question. The markets are likely to mark the lira lower.”
Cristian Maggio, the head of emerging-market strategy at TD Securities in London:
"We will almost definitely see a negative lira reaction on Monday. Clearly this is an attempt to have rates lowered. Otherwise Erdogan would not be replacing Cetinkaya a year ahead of time. Front-end rates may fall to price in more easing than already expected. But longer term rates may move in the opposite direction. It will also be a negative for equities.
“Domestically we’re looking at a recession this year and potential re-acceleration in CPI. Also the CBRT may be forced to hike at a later stage.”
Piotr Matys, a strategist at Rabobank in London:
“By abruptly dismissing Cetinkaya, Erdogan reminded everyone who is in charge of monetary policy. The decision is set to undermine credibility of the central bank, which may start unwinding the emergency rate hike announced in September much faster than previously anticipated, starting with a large cut at the upcoming meeting.
“If there is anything positive about it, it’s that investors will have the entire weekend to calmly assess potential implications and perhaps the sell-off on Monday when the markets reopen will not be as substantial as it would have been if the decision was announced on a week day.”
Inan Demir, an economist at Nomura International in London:
“With his experience as deputy governor and before then as head of treasury of a large bank, there’s no question the new governor is well prepared. However, the ease with which the former governor was removed sets a dangerous precedent, which is bound to have an impact on monetary policy conduct going forward.”
Ziad Daoud, chief Middle East economist at Bloomberg in Dubai:
"If Erdogan’s aim was to get lower interest rates, then the decision to replace the governor could backfire. The economic conditions were set for a rate cut later this month: inflation is dropping, growth is weak, the lira is stabilising, and expected cuts from the Federal Reserve mean the global environment is supportive. Now there’s an additional credibility constraint, with financial markets certain to scrutinize the motivation and magnitude of any easing."
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
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Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
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Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
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Schedule
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Liverpool 0
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Biosafety Level 1
The lowest safety level. These labs work with viruses that are minimal risk to humans.
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Used as teaching spaces.
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Biosafety Level 3
These labs contain material that can be lethal if inhaled. This includes SARS coronavirus, MERS, and yellow fever.
Significant extra precautions are taken with staff given specific immunisations when dealing with certain diseases.
Infectious material is examined in a biological safety cabinet.
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Lewis Hamilton in 2018
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MATCH INFO
CAF Champions League semi-finals first-leg fixtures
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