After the convulsions of last month, the thought of investing in the equity markets might be considered counter-intuitive. Hundreds of billions of dirhams worldwide have been wiped from shares after repeated plunges in the market caused by the ongoing credit crunch, leading to a string of bank collapses and nationalisations.
On the surface, it may seem insane to be diving back into the market at this point, but given that many supposedly low-risk investments appear dodgy, and that some are paying zero per cent interest, buying selected stocks at what may be the bottom of the market may make sense, particularly if you are planning to build a long-term portfolio.
The legendary stock investor Warren Buffett, dubbed the "Sage of Omaha" for his canny investing strategy, is a firm believer in buying at times when others keep their hands in their pockets.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful," he said. It is hard to imagine a time in the last 70 years when equity investors have been less confident than now. However, Mr Buffett has pumped US$5 billion (Dh18.4bn) into Goldman Sachs, and is putting a further $3bn into General Electric.
Should we be following him? And if so: which sectors, regions and markets should cash be pumped into?
For UAE residents, the GCC would be the logical place to invest.
This year, GCC stock markets have fallen by huge amounts, but the drops have not been hugely discriminating between sectors and companies, which means many underpriced firms are available.
Ali Khan, the executive director of the investment bank Arqaam Capital, said that telecommunication companies were the most resilient stocks in which to invest, and their third quarter earnings reported later this month were expected to push up their prices.
"Telcos are what analysts are suggesting are the more defensive players. They will face less of a slowdown because people still have to make phone calls," he said.
However, he thinks people should be cautious about which stock they pick, even though earnings growth is resilient. For example, some GCC telcos have investments in companies in Pakistan, whose earnings could be affected by the fragile political situation.
Mr Khan said that before making decisions, investors should look at the fundamentals of companies, such as cash balances and price-to-book ratios.
In addition, he recommends investing in Saudi banks. While banks are seen as no-go areas at the moment, he believes those in Saudi Arabia are severely underpriced because the Tadawul index as a whole has been falling heavily all year.
"They shouldn't be put in the same league as western banks. They have relatively controlled exposure to the international scene and are well capitalised," he said.
Faisal Hassan, the head of research at Global Investment House, said select banks were worth investing in, especially in the Islamic banking sector.
GCC investments will always come back to two key factors - property and oil. If the oil price does not decline too much, the funds for large-scale government infrastructure projects, which have been one of the region's main drivers of growth, are likely to continue.
According to Mohammed Salih al Hashemi, the executive director of asset management at the Abu Dhabi Investment Company, firms involved with infrastructure projects, such as building and parts suppliers, are the ones to aim for, since they will tend to continue benefiting from the projects' largesse even through turbulent times.
"You also have a lot of private companies who supply materials to such projects, so they tend to be the beneficiaries and are insulated from the problems that may engulf those involved with private-sector real estate," he said.
In addition, another sector that may be seen as relatively immune from the international crunch would be food producers and suppliers; not at the high end, but the dairy and meat farmers who supply the essentials to shops and markets. They are worth investing in for the simple reason that such products do not suffer from the sharp rises and falls in demand as other industries.
"In this region you don't have the depth of food production and suppliers that you have in the West, so you can't choose from as many different retailing companies," he said. "These producers and retailers are defensive. Recession or no recession, people still have to eat."
Mr Hashemi said middle eastern pharmaceutical companies were a good bet. Many are not like western pharma-giants with large research and development budgets, but generally produce generic drugs, which is not necessarily a bad thing as they operate without those costs.
For those who would prefer to invest abroad, the US and Asia look the best bet.
Bill Davey, a senior consultant at financial advisers Mondial in Dubai, has been advising clients in recent weeks and months to buy US equity.
"The USA has a tremendous ability and history of rebounding from shocks like the one we are seeing," he said. "In addition, Asian markets have been strong, but the potential there for growth is so great."
Mr Davey did not advise making long-term European investments, however, because of the region's perceived inertia and lack of dynamism compared with the US. But whatever you decide, it is worth heeding the advice of Warren Buffett.
"Invest in a company that even an idiot could run," Mr Buffett said. "Because one day an idiot will end up running it."
afoxwell@thenational.ae
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
RESULTS
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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THE%20SPECS
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Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
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AIDA%20RETURNS
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'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
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