The news this week that China’s economy grew at 6.9 per cent in the third quarter, according to official government calculations, was greeted with the usual guffaws of disbelief by in-the-know analysts.
China’s broad measure of economic health has long been discredited.
The prime minister Li Keqiang famously told the US ambassador to China in 2007 that the GDP numbers were “man-made”, and he preferred to track three other measures to gauge China’s economic health – electricity demand, rail freight and bank loans.
Even if it was credible, the rate of GDP growth would be the slowest quarterly expansion since the financial crisis seven years ago, and below the 7 per cent growth rate officially recorded for the first half of the year.
But the broad economic picture is probably worse, perhaps much worse.
Danny Gabay, a former Bank of England and JP Morgan economist, and co-founder of the independent macroeconomics outfit Fathom Consulting, is among the most cynical China observers.
He says: “Quite frankly we don’t believe [GDP data] at all.
“It’s not just that they come in close to the target, which is pre-set, but they are produced remarkably quickly and are rarely revised.”
Fathom Consulting uses energy consumption and other domestic measures to generate its own “China Momentum Indicator”, which estimates that China’s annual economic growth may have slowed to about 3 per cent in the latest quarter.
Mr Gabay notes that the gloomier China story was foreshadowed by the collapse in commodities prices, led by oil, over the past year-and-a-half.
But the difficulty with China’s GDP data is not just that they are manufactured by the government but that all such aggregating data are both inherently faulty and misleading about what is actually happening in something as complex as a large economy. Yet they often set the tone for financial and commodity markets.
In reality, there are a wide variety of factors at work on China’s energy sector, each of which can have profound consequences for its suppliers.
The energy sector is driven not just by overall growth in demand but by the government’s drive to change the mix so that it decreases the share of coal and other fossil fuels to meet its international commitments on energy intensity (energy as a percentage of GDP) and carbon emissions.
But oil demand is driven not only by industrial and household growth but by the burgeoning middle class demand for road transport. Even though its economy had already begun to slow after 2010, momentum meant that it surpassed the US in 2013 as the world’s largest importer of oil.
Last year China accounted for a whopping 43 per cent of world oil demand growth, importing about 6.1 million barrels per day.
That is forecast by the US energy information agency to slow to just a 23 per cent share of the world’s growth this year.
The latest data on oil consumption in China showed “apparent demand” for oil and oil products fell by 230,000 bpd to an 11-month low of 10.15 million bpd. But that followed a record level of 10.64 million bpd in August.
Stepping back and looking at the whole year to date, however, shows that oil imports this year have grown at a healthy 8.7 per cent to nearly 6.7 million bpd, with a significant part of that thanks to the addition this year of hundreds of millions of barrels of new strategic storage facilities which had to be filled up.
The next move in demand in China will be determined to a large degree by the details of the government’s efforts to boost the economy, and whether those will be focused on boosting consumer demand.
Improvements to transport infrastructure and efforts to help ease access to and use of road transport could mean that oil demand in China will continue to grow at rates that run ahead of the broader economy.
China has undertaken the massive task of “rebalancing” its economy so that it is driven more by development of its internal markets and the expansion of consumption at home.
As with other measures of China’s economy, it is difficult to gauge whether it is achieving results. Mr Gabay is also doubtful on that front.
“It has achieved zero rebalancing,” he maintains. But others disagree and see evidence that consumers are spending at the retail level, even if this hasn’t yet shown through the bigger ticket items, including cars.
amcauley@thenational.ae
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'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
more from Janine di Giovanni
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
The Written World: How Literature Shaped History
Martin Puchner
Granta
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%204-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20366hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E550Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESix-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh360%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKinetic%207%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rick%20Parish%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clean%20cooking%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
RESULTS
Manchester United 2
Anthony Martial 30'
Scott McTominay 90 6'
Manchester City 0
Bangladesh tour of Pakistan
January 24 – First T20, Lahore
January 25 – Second T20, Lahore
January 27 – Third T20, Lahore
February 7-11 – First Test, Rawalpindi
April 3 – One-off ODI, Karachi
April 5-9 – Second Test, Karachi
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
SUZUME
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Makoto%20Shinkai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Nanoka%20Hara%2C%20Hokuto%20Matsumura%2C%20Eri%20Fukatsu%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwig%20Solutions%20(with%20trade%20name%20Twig)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChafic%20Idriss%2C%20Karam%20El%20Dik%20and%20Rayan%20Antonios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ebootstrapped%20(undisclosed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-seed%20%E2%80%94%20closing%20the%20round%20as%20we%20speak%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20senior%20executives%20from%20the%20GCC%20financial%20services%20industry%20and%20global%20family%20offices%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital
THE DETAILS
Deadpool 2
Dir: David Leitch
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin, Justin Dennison, Zazie Beetz
Four stars
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
The details
Colette
Director: Wash Westmoreland
Starring: Keira Knightley, Dominic West
Our take: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: Dh898,000
On sale: now
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
Meg%202%3A%20The%20Trench
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBen%20Wheatley%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJason%20Statham%2C%20Jing%20Wu%2C%20Cliff%20Curtis%2C%20Page%20Kennedy%2C%20Cliff%20Curtis%2C%20Melissanthi%20Mahut%20and%20Shuya%20Sophia%20Cai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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EU's%2020-point%20migration%20plan
%3Cp%3E1.%20Send%20EU%20border%20guards%20to%20Balkans%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20%E2%82%AC40%20million%20for%20training%20and%20surveillance%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Review%20EU%20border%20protection%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Reward%20countries%20that%20fund%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.%20Help%20Balkans%20improve%20asylum%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.%20Improve%20migrant%20reception%20facilities%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.%20Close%20gaps%20in%20EU%20registration%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E8.%20Run%20pilots%20of%20faster%20asylum%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E9.%20Improve%20relocation%20of%20migrants%20within%20EU%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E10.%20Bolster%20migration%20unit%20in%20Greece%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E11.%20Tackle%20smuggling%20at%20Serbia%2FHungary%20border%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E12.%20Implement%20%E2%82%AC30%20million%20anti-smuggling%20plan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E13.%20Sanctions%20on%20transport%20linked%20to%20smuggling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E14.%20Expand%20pilot%20deportation%20scheme%20in%20Bosnia%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E15.%20Training%20for%20Balkans%20to%20deport%20migrants%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E16.%20Joint%20task%20forces%20with%20Balkans%20and%20countries%20of%20origin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E17.%20Close%20loopholes%20in%20Balkan%20visa%20policy%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E18.%20Monitor%20migration%20laws%20passed%20in%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E19.%20Use%20visa-free%20travel%20as%20leverage%20over%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E20.%20Joint%20EU%20messages%20to%20Balkans%20and%20countries%20of%20origin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPAD%20(2022)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010.9-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%20IPS%20LCD%2C%202%2C360%20x%201%2C640%2C%20264ppi%2C%20wide%20colour%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20Apple%20Pencil%201%20support%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EChip%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20A14%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%204-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2064GB%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPadOS%2016%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012-megapixel%20wide%2C%20f%2F1.8%2C%205x%20digital%2C%20Smart%20HDR%203%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full%20HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.4%2C%202x%2C%20Smart%20HDR%203%2C%20Centre%20Stage%3B%20full%20HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Stereo%20speakers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%2C%20smart%20connector%20(for%20folio%2Fkeyboard)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%2010%20hours%20on%20Wi-Fi%3B%20up%20to%209%20hours%20on%20cellular%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinish%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Blue%2C%20pink%2C%20silver%2C%20yellow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPad%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%2020W%20power%20adapter%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%20%E2%80%94%20Dh1%2C849%20(64GB)%20%2F%20Dh2%2C449%20(256GB)%3B%20cellular%20%E2%80%94%20Dh2%2C449%20(64GB)%20%2F%20Dh3%2C049%20(256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Name: The Concept
Founders: Yadhushan Mahendran, Maria Sobh and Muhammad Rijal
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 7
Sector: Aviation and space industry
Funding: $250,000
Future plans: Looking to raise $1 million investment to boost expansion and develop new products
BIOSAFETY LABS SECURITY LEVELS
Biosafety Level 1
The lowest safety level. These labs work with viruses that are minimal risk to humans.
Hand washing is required on entry and exit and potentially infectious material decontaminated with bleach before thrown away.
Must have a lock. Access limited. Lab does not need to be isolated from other buildings.
Used as teaching spaces.
Study microorganisms such as Staphylococcus which causes food poisoning.
Biosafety Level 2
These labs deal with pathogens that can be harmful to people and the environment such as Hepatitis, HIV and salmonella.
Working in Level 2 requires special training in handling pathogenic agents.
Extra safety and security precautions are taken in addition to those at Level 1
Biosafety Level 3
These labs contain material that can be lethal if inhaled. This includes SARS coronavirus, MERS, and yellow fever.
Significant extra precautions are taken with staff given specific immunisations when dealing with certain diseases.
Infectious material is examined in a biological safety cabinet.
Personnel must wear protective gowns that must be discarded or decontaminated after use.
Strict safety and handling procedures are in place. There must be double entrances to the building and they must contain self-closing doors to reduce risk of pathogen aerosols escaping.
Windows must be sealed. Air from must be filtered before it can be recirculated.
Biosafety Level 4
The highest level for biosafety precautions. Scientist work with highly dangerous diseases that have no vaccine or cure.
All material must be decontaminated.
Personnel must wear a positive pressure suit for protection. On leaving the lab this must pass through decontamination shower before they have a personal shower.
Entry is severely restricted to trained and authorised personnel. All entries are recorded.
Entrance must be via airlocks.
Women%E2%80%99s%20T20%20World%20Cup%20Qualifier
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Europe wide
Some of French groups are threatening Friday to continue their journey to Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the European Union, and to meet up with drivers from other countries on Monday.
Belgian authorities joined French police in banning the threatened blockade. A similar lorry cavalcade was planned for Friday in Vienna but cancelled after authorities prohibited it.
Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
Sonchiriya
Director: Abhishek Chaubey
Producer: RSVP Movies, Azure Entertainment
Cast: Sushant Singh Rajput, Manoj Bajpayee, Ashutosh Rana, Bhumi Pednekar, Ranvir Shorey
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
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