Headlines about rising prices are everywhere at the moment – for food, fuel, metals, medicine, computer chips and much more. One of the most significant rises is for the least tangible commodity – European carbon emissions credits. Its record highs have profound implications for the world economy and environment.
The European Trading Scheme began in 2005, and obliges large greenhouse gas emitters, such as power plants, factories and airlines, to hold an allowance for each tonne of carbon dioxide they release. The UK introduced an equivalent system when it left the EU.
It is intended to penalise polluters and encourage them to shift to lower-carbon technologies, for instance by replacing a coal power plant with solar and wind, or an oil boiler with gas or electric heating. The number of allowances is limited and decreases each year, so if companies are too slow in decarbonising, the price will rise.
This market-based mechanism should be more efficient than the US system of mandates and regulations (though the EU has these too). In fact, the archetype of the ETS was introduced by the US in 1990 to cap emissions of sulphur dioxide, which causes acid rain. It proved highly successful and compliance costs were much lower than expected.
For years, the ETS was a joke. It was undercut by more prescriptive rules such as renewable energy targets, by free allocations to big polluters and by the release of “hot air” from permits that exceeded what emissions would have been anyway. Between 2011 and 2017, prices languished around about €5 ($5.61) to €10 tonne, not enough to change anyone’s behaviour significantly.
But in 2018, the rules were tightened and prices started rising. After slipping during the pandemic last year, carbon prices leapt 67 per cent in the first half of this year and reached a record of €88.88 on December 8.
This reflects the revival of economic activity. But it is also accompanied by a surge in gas prices that feeds off and drives the carbon price surge. When gas prices were relatively low, the ETS price would find the level that encouraged power plants to switch from dirty coal to much cleaner gas. For other businesses, the carbon price has been a cost of doing business, not a fundamental driver.
But now, gas prices are too expensive to be preferred to coal – it would need a carbon price of €300 per tonne to equalise them. So power plants combust both coal and allowances simultaneously, driving up the carbon price for every other industry.
Even if the gas price eases after the European winter, other factors will support carbon prices. Germany’s new government plans to set a price floor of €60 per tonne. Shipping will also be included in the ETS and a separate carbon price will be introduced for road transport and building heating. There is a speculative element too to the price jump, as the EU’s plans to slash emissions to 61 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030 imply a sharp reduction in allowances from 2025 onwards.
Such high carbon prices matter for three reasons. Firstly, they will affect the world beyond the EU and UK. Several other jurisdictions have carbon prices, such as some north-eastern US states and California, Canada, South Korea, Japan and China. These markets are not integrated and trade at very different prices – generally well below the EU’s.
But to protect its industries from competition from countries without strong carbon pricing, the EU intends to bring in a carbon border tariff from 2023, which will apply to energy-intensive materials such as steel, aluminium and fertilisers. That will be a strong incentive for others to adopt a carbon price or tax, so they collect revenue rather than paying it to European authorities. That could create a critical mass of linked trade blocs.
Secondly, the tariff will drive major shifts of energy use within the EU. A rate of $100 per tonne of carbon dioxide is equivalent to about $5.3 per million British thermal units of gas (the European price for 2022 is about $26), but almost $200 per tonne of coal, compared to Australian export prices today of $169 per tonne.
So the move will drive out coal in favour of gas. But as coal use is declining and gas prices rise, the latter will also be pressured versus renewables. Efficiency retrofits will reduce overall gas use, turning the attention of the gas market ever more towards Asia where it can still replace coal.
Prices for flights will rise significantly though not intolerably – a return Dubai-New York economy flight, currently selling for about $1200, would increase by $370 at a $100 per tonne carbon price.
Thirdly, the tariffs will encourage innovation that will spread out worldwide. Clean hydrogen will become increasingly attractive in industry. Carbon capture and storage will be viable without subsidies in many cases with carbon prices above $80 per tonne. A proposed tax credit up to $85 per tonne could have a similar effect in the US.
This all requires that Europe sticks on its course, the inevitable political backlash is overcome, and that other countries are drawn into stringent carbon pricing. The road ahead is far from clear, but strong carbon pricing will smooth the way for faster and more radical change than we have imagined.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
The specs: 2018 Harley-Davidson Fat Boy
Price, base / as tested Dh97,600
Engine 1,745cc Milwaukee-Eight v-twin engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 78hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque 145Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.0L / 100km (estimate)
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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Fifa Club World Cup:
When: December 6-16
Where: Games to take place at Zayed Sports City in Abu Dhabi and Hazza bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain
Defending champions: Real Madrid
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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The years Ramadan fell in May
The years Ramadan fell in May
More on animal trafficking
Company Profile
Company name: NutriCal
Started: 2019
Founder: Soniya Ashar
Based: Dubai
Industry: Food Technology
Initial investment: Self-funded undisclosed amount
Future plan: Looking to raise fresh capital and expand in Saudi Arabia
Total Clients: Over 50
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Iraq negotiating over Iran sanctions impact
- US sanctions on Iran’s energy industry and exports took effect on Monday, November 5.
- Washington issued formal waivers to eight buyers of Iranian oil, allowing them to continue limited imports. Iraq did not receive a waiver.
- Iraq’s government is cooperating with the US to contain Iranian influence in the country, and increased Iraqi oil production is helping to make up for Iranian crude that sanctions are blocking from markets, US officials say.
- Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumped last month at a record 4.78 million barrels a day, former Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi said on Oct. 20. Iraq exported 3.83 million barrels a day last month, according to tanker tracking and data from port agents.
- Iraq has been working to restore production at its northern Kirkuk oil field. Kirkuk could add 200,000 barrels a day of oil to Iraq’s total output, Hook said.
- The country stopped trucking Kirkuk oil to Iran about three weeks ago, in line with U.S. sanctions, according to four people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified because they aren’t allowed to speak to media.
- Oil exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest supplier, have slumped since President Donald Trump announced in May that he’d reimpose sanctions. Iran shipped about 1.76 million barrels a day in October out of 3.42 million in total production, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- Benchmark Brent crude fell 47 cents to $72.70 a barrel in London trading at 7:26 a.m. local time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was 25 cents lower at $62.85 a barrel in New York. WTI held near the lowest level in seven months as concerns of a tightening market eased after the U.S. granted its waivers to buyers of Iranian crude.
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Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
MATCH INFO
Crawley Town 3 (Tsaroulla 50', Nadesan 53', Tunnicliffe 70')
Leeds United 0
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Brown/Black belt finals
3pm: 49kg female: Mayssa Bastos (BRA) v Thamires Aquino (BRA)
3.07pm: 56kg male: Hiago George (BRA) v Carlos Alberto da Silva (BRA)
3.14pm: 55kg female: Amal Amjahid (BEL) v Bianca Basilio (BRA)
3.21pm: 62kg male: Gabriel de Sousa (BRA) v Joao Miyao (BRA)
3.28pm: 62kg female: Beatriz Mesquita (BRA) v Ffion Davies (GBR)
3.35pm: 69kg male: Isaac Doederlein (BRA) v Paulo Miyao (BRA)
3.42pm: 70kg female: Thamara Silva (BRA) v Alessandra Moss (AUS)
3.49pm: 77kg male: Oliver Lovell (GBR) v Tommy Langarkar (NOR)
3.56pm: 85kg male: Faisal Al Ketbi (UAE) v Rudson Mateus Teles (BRA)
4.03pm: 90kg female: Claire-France Thevenon (FRA) v Gabreili Passanha (BRA)
4.10pm: 94kg male: Adam Wardzinski (POL) v Kaynan Duarte (BRA)
4.17pm: 110kg male: Yahia Mansoor Al Hammadi (UAE) v Joao Rocha (BRA
57%20Seconds
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Fight card
- Aliu Bamidele Lasisi (Nigeria) beat Artid Vamrungauea (Thailand) POINTS
- Julaidah Abdulfatah (Saudi Arabia) beat Martin Kabrhel (Czech Rep) POINTS
- Kem Ljungquist (Denmark) beat Mourad Omar (Egypt) TKO
- Michael Lawal (UK) beat Tamas Kozma (Hungary) KO
- Zuhayr Al Qahtani (Saudi Arabia) beat Mohammed Mahmoud (UK) POINTS
- Darren Surtees (UK) beat Kane Baker (UK) KO
- Chris Eubank Jr (UK) beat JJ McDonagh (Ireland) TKO
- Callum Smith (UK) beat George Groves (UK) KO
Profile Periscope Media
Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)
Launch year: 2020
Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021
Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year
Investors: Co-founders
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
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GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Canada
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Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
