Iran needs only a draw tomorrow against its old adversary, the US, to proceed beyond the group stage in the World Cup.
While the US may overcome Iran on a football pitch, its “maximum pressure” sanctions have so far failed to earn an American victory over the Islamic Republic.
However, as massive protests continue to sweep the country, it’s Tehran that fears being knocked out.
The unrest that has followed the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody on September 16 is the most serious challenge to the Iranian government since the 1979 revolution and ensuing invasion by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. That triggered a colossal oil shock and global recession, and political consequences that shape the Middle East today.
Reverberation of what is happening across Iran can also potentially deliver another shock, not only to the Iranian economy but also to the global energy, market amid an already slowing world economy.
From the anti-Ruhollah Khomeini article on January 7, 1978 that triggered the first large protests, to the final fall of the Shah’s regime, four hundred days elapsed. Sixteen years passed between the 1963 opposition to the “White Revolution” which promised land reform and industrialisation, and the Shah’s flight into exile. Twenty-six years separated the western-backed coup against prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh that made Mohammad Reza Pahlavi supreme monarch, and his dethronement. Revolutions are predicted too often or not at all.
Amini was killed barely two months ago. But the current uprising follows numerous other episodes: the student protests of July 1999, the Green Movement against 2009’s fraudulent election, the widespread unrest of 2017-18 and demonstrations against fuel price rises and poor economic conditions in 2019 in which 1,500 people were reportedly killed.
On the one hand, this might suggest Tehran is well-versed in overcoming dissent, making it likely to do so again. It may believe it has learnt from the Shah’s failure to prevent revolution and it has a decade of experience in assisting the bloody suppression of the Syrian uprising.
But on the other hand, it indicates a worsening cycle of economic decline and political and social repression. The Green Movement called for a fair election; today protesters want the end of the regime. This combines an elderly and sclerotic coterie around supreme leader Ali Khamenei, himself rumoured to be seriously ill and weighing his potential successors, and a Revolutionary Guard split between ideological hardliners forged in the Iran-Iraq War and profit-seeking opportunists.
Last June’s selection of Ebrahim Raisi as President featured a very low turnout and no credible opponents. The elimination of the reformist, moderate and much of the conservative current from power has removed the system’s traditional pressure valve.
Even several plausible Revolutionary Guard candidates were prevented from running in the election, such as Saeed Mohammad, a younger guardsman with no active military experience but a strong line in running the force’s businesses, notably the engineering group Khatam Al Anbia.
So what next, and what does it mean for global energy markets?
In January and August, brief windows opened for a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) over Iran’s nuclear programme. Now, the protests and their violent suppression make it very unlikely that the administration of US President Joe Biden will seriously resume the talks. And that means no sanctions relief, no additional oil on the market and a ramping-up of the country’s uranium enrichment.
As enrichment crosses different thresholds, the returned Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu will no doubt lobby for military action. That would be disastrous for the protesters. It would be excellent for Vladimir Putin, whose flailing war in Ukraine can only be rescued by a worsened global energy crisis. But the European ban on Russian crude oil, in effect from 5 December, means Iran will face more competition in China, its only remaining paying customer.
Earlier this month, an Israeli-managed tanker carrying gas oil was hit by a suspected Iranian explosive drone off the coast of Oman. This could mark a resurgence of attacks that struck shipping in the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea, and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, mostly in 2019 and 2021. A full-scale Israeli or American military strike on nuclear sites would no doubt trigger much wider retaliation against energy assets in the GCC and Iraq.
As for the protests, the regime may succeed in crushing them or riding them out, as before. But they will undoubtedly return, and in even greater force. The system can meet neither people’s social aspirations nor their economic needs. Its economic failings are bound up with its ideology — the confrontation with the US — and its support base, with the Revolutionary Guards and clerical foundations controlling private large businesses.
A military coup by the guards or the insertion of their favoured candidate post-Khamenei, would lead to greater violence in the short term. This might be followed by corrupt isolationism milking what remains of the sanctioned economy. A more imaginative leader might later try to engineer a calibrated re-opening, with moderate nuclear concessions in return for eased oil exports.
The best chance for the protesters to trigger fundamental change is for a split in the regime, or for some of the security forces to change sides. That could lead to a civil war, although unlike in Syria, a distracted Moscow would be unable to send much material help. Iran’s remaining oil exports of 800,000 to 1 million barrels per day, and its significant gas sales to Turkey, would be threatened. The conflict would probably also draw in Iraq, Opec’s second-largest producer.
Most optimistically, some kind of transition could lead to a new government that properly represents the people. That would unlock Iran’s enormous potential in oil, gas, renewables and industry. It would become a central piece in the world energy system between the Caspian and the Gulf, the Middle East and the 1.8 billion energy-hungry people of South Asia.
For now, the situation is perilous. European and US attention is fixed on the war in Ukraine. But between nuclear brinkmanship and brave and furious demonstrators, a yet deeper energy crisis lurks.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
MATCH INFO
What: India v Afghanistan, first Test
When: Starts Thursday
Where: M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengalaru
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
2.30pm: Expo 2020 Dubai – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: Barakka, Ray Dawson (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer)
3.05pm: Now Or Never – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: One Idea, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson
3.40pm: This Is Our Time – Handicap (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Perfect Balance, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
4.15pm: Visit Expo 2020 – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Kaheall, Richard Mullen, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.50pm: The World In One Place – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1.900m; Winner: Castlebar, Adrie de Vries, Helal Al Alawi
5.25pm: Vision – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Shanty Star, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Al Wasl Plaza – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Jadwal, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6-cylinder%2C%204.8-litre%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E280%20brake%20horsepower%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E451Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh153%2C00%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Torbal Rayeh Wa Jayeh
Starring: Ali El Ghoureir, Khalil El Roumeithy, Mostafa Abo Seria
Stars: 3
Developer: Ubisoft Montreal / Ubisoft Toronto
Publisher: Ubisoft
Platforms: Playstation 4, Xbox One, Windows
Release Date: April 10
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE
1 Man City 26 20 3 3 63 17 63
2 Liverpool 25 17 6 2 64 20 57
3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 49 18 50
4 Man Utd 26 13 7 6 44 34 46
----------------------------------------
5 West Ham 26 12 6 8 45 34 42
----------------------------------------
6 Arsenal 23 13 3 7 36 26 42
7 Wolves 24 12 4 8 23 18 40
8 Tottenham 23 12 4 8 31 31 39
if you go
The flights
Direct flights from the UAE to the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, are available with Air Arabia, (www.airarabia.com) Fly Dubai (www.flydubai.com) or Etihad (www.etihad.com) from Dh1,200 return including taxes. The trek described here started from Jomson, but there are many other start and end point variations depending on how you tailor your trek. To get to Jomson from Kathmandu you must first fly to the lake-side resort town of Pokhara with either Buddha Air (www.buddhaair.com) or Yeti Airlines (www.yetiairlines.com). Both charge around US$240 (Dh880) return. From Pokhara there are early morning flights to Jomson with Yeti Airlines or Simrik Airlines (www.simrikairlines.com) for around US$220 (Dh800) return.
The trek
Restricted area permits (US$500 per person) are required for trekking in the Upper Mustang area. The challenging Meso Kanto pass between Tilcho Lake and Jomson should not be attempted by those without a lot of mountain experience and a good support team. An excellent trekking company with good knowledge of Upper Mustang, the Annaurpuna Circuit and Tilcho Lake area and who can help organise a version of the trek described here is the Nepal-UK run Snow Cat Travel (www.snowcattravel.com). Prices vary widely depending on accommodation types and the level of assistance required.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
SCORES
Yorkshire Vikings 144-1 in 12.5 overs
(Tom Kohler 72 not out, Harry Broook 42 not out)
bt Hobart Hurricanes 140-7 in 20 overs
(Caleb Jewell 38, Sean Willis 35, Karl Carver 2-29, Josh Shaw 2-39)
German plea
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the German parliament that. Russia had erected a new wall across Europe.
"It's not a Berlin Wall -- it is a Wall in central Europe between freedom and bondage and this Wall is growing bigger with every bomb" dropped on Ukraine, Zelenskyy told MPs.
Mr Zelenskyy was applauded by MPs in the Bundestag as he addressed Chancellor Olaf Scholz directly.
"Dear Mr Scholz, tear down this Wall," he said, evoking US President Ronald Reagan's 1987 appeal to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate.
