It’s a rare forum these days that can bring together senior figures from the US, Russia, Turkey, the Iraqi federal government, including groups close to Iran, and the two main parties from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
The Erbil Forum last week did that, but it also illustrated just how hard it will be to find common ground between all parties involved — and that is before throwing China into the mix.
There was a general feeling that, amid the war in Ukraine and the strategic competition with Beijing, Washington had lost interest in Iraq.
Yet the country remains pivotal to global energy. The second-largest oil producer within Opec, Iraq has room to grow output substantially and is a critical part of replacing any losses from Russia, if and when the group decides to open the taps. The Iraqi Kurdistan region’s gas resources could power the rest of Iraq and export to Turkey, providing Europe with a partial alternative to Moscow.
It is the fourth-largest Arab country both by population and greenhouse gas emissions. Its people languish in heat and darkness, while its renewable energy potential remains virtually untouched.
The geopolitical games are multilayered. Iraqi affairs have gradually improved since the darkest days of the civil war in 2006-2007 and the onslaught of ISIS in 2014.
But the country now risks being drawn into conflicts not of its making, involving two regional players, Iran and Turkey, and three outside powers, the US, Russia and China.
Two weeks ago, the federal government finally concluded six petroleum contracts waiting for signature since the fifth bid round in 2018.
Three were with Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum, which already operates Iraqi Kurdistan’s largest gasfield, Khor Mor, in partnership with Abu Dhabi-listed Dana Gas and three European companies.
The gas production from these blocks could be crucial in improving electricity supply and in supplementing Iraq’s costly and unreliable imports from Iran.
This was doubly interesting.
Firstly, rocket attacks on Khor Mor in recent months were interpreted as warnings to Kurdish parties to fall in line with Tehran’s plans for the new government in Baghdad, but since they occurred again after government formation, they may also be seen as a threat not to pursue independent gas exports in competition with Iran in Iraq and Turkey.
Secondly, the Federal Ministry of Oil had warned companies not to operate in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, after a February 2022 supreme court ruling that its oil and gas law was unconstitutional. The judgement was seen as politicised, but still has been enough to scare off several leading oil service companies and possibly to discourage traders from renewing arrangements to purchase Kurdish oil.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani showed himself ready to sign with one of the most prominent operators in the semi-autonomous region.
A long-running arbitration wending its way through a Paris-based tribunal is expected soon to find in favour of Baghdad versus Ankara in declaring that Turkey breached a treaty when it allowed the Kurds to send oil through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Ankara won’t pay up the mooted multiple billions of dollars in damages, but whatever compromise is reached could also cast aside Kurdish interests.
Three of the other new field development contracts went to Chinese companies. They have become increasingly dominant in Iraq as others have packed their bags. If ExxonMobil leaves the West Qurna-1 field in favour of a Chinese partner, as is widely expected, China would operate more than half of Iraqi oil output. Chinese credit lines help underpin lending to Iraqi infrastructure, and Baghdad recently announced it was open to conducting some trade in yuan.
Russian corporations — Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil — also have a strong position. Rosneft paid and loaned up to $3 billion to the Iraqi Kurdistan region for oil sales, fields and pipelines just ahead of Erbil’s referendum on independence in September 2017. They are unlikely to expand their position, though, given the difficulties of access to finance, banking and technology imposed by the Western sanctions.
The Iraqis themselves are aware of the danger of over-dependence on Beijing, but their investment-unfriendly policies block off alternatives. Recently, France’s TotalEnergies reportedly nearly walked away from a multibillion package to develop oil, gas, water injection and solar power.
A last-minute change of heart in Baghdad has brought them back to the negotiating table. However, there is not a great appetite from the other major international oil companies to do more, given their decarbonisation trajectories and the spread of opportunities elsewhere.
Iraq could manage external powers better if its own house were in order. But a federal law that would resolve management of the Kurdish petroleum sector, how oil should be sold and the revenues divided, appears out of reach. Despite talk of progress, the outline sounds like several previous deals that fell apart almost as soon as concluded.
The Kurdish position, meanwhile, is weakening, because of the widening split between the two main parties and even within the smaller of them, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. The colourful Bafel Talabani, leader of the PUK, appeared at the forum wearing his trademark mountain boots and, at the conclusion of his interview, theatrically tore off his tie, reportedly borrowed from his urbane brother Qubad.
He has previously said that gas exports to Turkey, from fields located in PUK-controlled areas, would take place over his “dead body” if the people’s interest were not fairly consulted.
But with oil resources running down, major gas projects are the main hope for new revenues and political importance.
Iraq thus illustrates in microcosm the dilemmas that many smaller and fragile states will encounter as Sino-Russo-American relations become increasingly uncompromising.
Stronger non-aligned countries can cleverly play off one great power against another. Weaker ones can easily be torn apart — bad news not just for their people, but for global energy security.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
RESULTS
2.30pm Jaguar I-Pace – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt)
1,600m
Winner Namrood, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Musabah Al Muhairi
(trainer)
3.05pm Land Rover Defender – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D)
1,400m
Winner Shadzadi, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
3.40pm Jaguar F-Type – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner Tahdeed, Fernando Jara, Nicholas Bachalard
4.15pm New Range Rover – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
Winner Shanty Star, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly
4.50pm Land Rover – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 2,400m
Winner Autumn Pride, Bernardo Pinheiro, Helal Al Alawi
5.25pm Al Tayer Motor – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 T) 1,000m
Winner Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
6pm Jaguar F-Pace SVR – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m
Winner Scabbard, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP
Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan
Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Carzaty%2C%20now%20Kavak%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarzaty%20launched%20in%202018%2C%20Kavak%20in%20the%20GCC%20launched%20in%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20140%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Automotive%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarzaty%20raised%20%246m%20in%20equity%20and%20%244m%20in%20debt%3B%20Kavak%20plans%20%24130m%20investment%20in%20the%20GCC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The specs: 2019 Aston Martin DBS Superleggera
Price, base: Dh1.2 million
Engine: 5.2-litre twin-turbo V12
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 725hp @ 6,500pm
Torque: 900Nm @ 1,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.3L / 100km (estimate)
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz GLA
Price, base / as tested Dh150,900 / Dh173,600
Engine 2.0L inline four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 211hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 1,200rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
Results
2pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: AF Thayer, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: AF Sahwa, Nathan Crosse, Mohamed Ramadan.
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: AF Thobor, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mezmar, Szczepan Mazur, Ernst Oertel.
4pm: Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup presented by Longines (TB) Dh 200,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Galvanize, Nathan Cross, Doug Watson.
4.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 40,000 (D) 1,700m, Winner: Ajaj, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mohamed Daggash.
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041mm%2C%20352%20x%20430%3B%2045mm%2C%20396%20x%20484%3B%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%20up%20to%201000%20nits%2C%20always-on%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20S8%2C%20W3%20wireless%2C%20U1%20ultra-wideband%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20watchOS%209%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203rd-gen%20heart%20rate%20sensor%2C%20temperature%20sensing%2C%20ECG%2C%20blood%20oxygen%2C%20workouts%2C%20fall%2Fcrash%20detection%3B%20emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP6X%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%2C%20dust%20resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20308mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%2C%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinishes%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aluminium%20%E2%80%93%20midnight%2C%20Product%20Red%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3B%20stainless%20steel%20%E2%80%93%20gold%2C%20graphite%2C%20silver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Watch%20Series%208%2C%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starts%20at%20Dh1%2C599%20(41mm)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C999%20(45mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies direct from Dubai to Rio de Janeiro from Dh7,000 return including taxes. Avianca fliles from Rio to Cusco via Lima from $399 (Dhxx) return including taxes.
The trip
From US$1,830 per deluxe cabin, twin share, for the one-night Spirit of the Water itinerary and US$4,630 per deluxe cabin for the Peruvian Highlands itinerary, inclusive of meals, and beverages. Surcharges apply for some excursions.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20front-axle%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E218hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E402km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh215%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Newcastle United 1 (Carroll 82')
Leicester City 2 (Maddison 55', Tielemans 72')
Man of the match James Maddison (Leicester)
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Raghida, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Alareeq, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-2 Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 2,200m
Winner: Basmah, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Liwa Oasis Group 2 (PA) Dh300,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: SS Jalmod, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m
Winner: Trolius, Ryan Powell, Simon Crisford
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Results
United States beat UAE by three wickets
United States beat Scotland by 35 runs
UAE v Scotland – no result
United States beat UAE by 98 runs
Scotland beat United States by four wickets
Fixtures
Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland
Admission is free
