Frozen conflicts sometimes rekindle but rarely melt away entirely.
Azerbaijan may have just achieved that, retaking the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. Defeat for Russia’s position in the Caucasus and a success for Turkey reconfigures power in this critical region of energy transit.
Nagorno-Karabakh, the “mountainous black garden”, was transferred to the Soviet republic of Azerbaijan by Joseph Stalin in 1923 despite its majority Armenian population.
After the collapse of the USSR, Armenia seized control of the territory and the interposed areas of Azerbaijan, with Russian support, in a protracted war from 1991 to 1993. Oddly, Iran also backed Yerevan, possibly fearing ethnic separatism among its large Azeri population. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is himself half-Azeri.
The self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh became one of several disputed lands around the former Soviet bloc, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia and Transnistria in Moldova. This Russian playbook was then revived in its seizure in 2014 of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.
But landlocked Armenia, with its population of under 3 million, was always going to struggle to hold on against Azerbaijan, with more than 10 million people and strong oil and gas revenue. It missed the chance for a favourable diplomatic solution. In 2020, Azerbaijan waged a short war. It recaptured areas and reopened the Zangezur Corridor to its exclave of Nakhchivan.
At last September’s Shanghai Co-operation Organisation meeting in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, Central Asia leaders showed a marked lack of respect for Vladimir Putin. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev even felt able to meet Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also expressed support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion. Although he offered major diplomatic concessions to Azerbaijan, with Russian forces floundering in their war, Moscow needing to keep Azerbaijan friendly to safeguard its route from Iran, and Turkey in a strong diplomatic position, Baku decided it was time to strike again.
It appears to have regained control over all of Karabakh. Most of the population have fled and Artsakh’s government said it would dissolve itself. Russian “peacekeepers” remain, but their purpose now is unclear. As Nakhichivan adjoins Turkey, there is now a land bridge from Istanbul to Baku, and, across the Caspian, a route to the Turkic states of Central Asia.
Key oil and gas pipelines run from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey and on to world markets.
Kazakhstan is seeking to expand its exports of oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to diminish its reliance on the Caspian pipeline to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, worryingly close to the fighting in Ukraine, which suffered a shutdown last July allegedly for storm damage.
The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (Tanap) opened in 2018, connecting to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline which in 2020 began supplying Greece, Albania and Italy.
In January 2021, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan finally resolved to develop the cross-border Dostluk (Friendship) oil and gasfield in the middle of the Caspian Sea.
That could, in turn, pave the way for the long-awaited Trans-Caspian pipeline to bring some of Turkmenistan’s gas resources westward.
Russian oil major Lukoil, which seemed likely to lead the development of Dostluk, may now be pushed out.
In July 2022, the European Commission signed a declaration with Baku to “aspire” to increase gas imports to at least 20 billion cubic metres per year by 2027, with current capacity at half that. In August, Adnoc agreed to buy a stake in the Absheron gasfield in the Caspian, operated by France’s TotalEnergies, which will feed an expansion of Tanap.
Turkey, which for long had minimal hydrocarbon resources, is now developing two sizeable fields in the Black Sea, and its state gas company Botaş just agreed to supply Romania.
Azerbaijan is also looking into green hydrogen production from wind and solar power, in co-operation with Masdar.
This is all very welcome to Europe as it seeks to replace Russian gas. But it means Brussels has limited diplomatic leverage over issues such as the rights of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
It has now exchanged reliance on Russia with a troubling need for Turkey as a transit state. Though a Nato member, Turkey under President Erdogan has not shied away from controversies.
Last Monday, Mr Erdogan and Mr Aliyev attended the groundbreaking for a new pipeline to supply Nakhchivan. That the two presidents would appear for the opening of what in itself is a small project signals Turkey’s aim to develop itself into a gas corridor, and its alignment in that with Baku. Mr Erdogan was explicit: “I’m very pleased to be with all of you as we connect Nakhchivan with the Turkish world.”
Gas from Iraq’s Kurdistan region would have to pass through Turkey, which is also a possible route for the bounty of the eastern Mediterranean. The shutdown of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline since March after an unfavourable arbitration ruling against Ankara is another reminder of its willingness to play tough.
As a transit state, Turkey has arguably even more leverage than a supplier such as Russia, since its direct earnings are relatively small, and it can therefore be more willing to lose them.
This realignment in the Caucasus also worries Iran, particularly given Azerbaijan’s links with Israel. While the EU is indecisive, America is focused elsewhere, Russia is struggling to cling on in Ukraine and Iran remains economically isolated, Turkey has seized its opportunity. Iran previously supplied some gas to Nakhichivan and Armenia, while Turkey is its most important export market. That is now all under threat.
Now, will Azerbaijan’s victory finally bring peace to the South Caucasus? Will parties to any of the other frozen conflicts take advantage of Moscow’s weakness, and reheat them? Will Turkey finally manage what it could not from the early 1990s, and build real physical links to the Central Asian states? And will Europe manage to integrate these changes into its energy security strategy, without compromising its ethical or environmental principles? This short war raises more difficult questions than it answers.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
New schools in Dubai
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
BRIEF SCORES:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
'Manmarziyaan' (Colour Yellow Productions, Phantom Films)
Director: Anurag Kashyap
Cast: Abhishek Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Vicky Kaushal
Rating: 3.5/5
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
RESULTS
6.30pm: Handicap (rated 100 ) US$175,000 1,200m
Winner: Baccarat, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (78-94) $60,000 1,800m
Winner: Baroot, Christophe Soumillon, Mike de Kock
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes Group 3 $200,000 1,600m
Winner: Heavy Metal, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.15pm: Handicap (95-108) $125,000 1,200m
Winner: Yalta, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm: Balanchine Group 2 $200,000 1,800m
Winner: Promising Run, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
9.25pm: Handicap (95-105) $125,000 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
10pm: Handicap (95-105) $125,000 1,400m
Winner: Oh This Is Us, Tom Marquand, Richard Hannon
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
LAST-16 EUROPA LEAGUE FIXTURES
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
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Women’s T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier
ICC Academy, November 22-28
UAE fixtures
Nov 22, v Malaysia
Nov 23, v Hong Kong
Nov 25, v Bhutan
Nov 26, v Kuwait
Nov 28, v Nepal
ICC T20I rankings
14. Nepal
17. UAE
25. Hong Kong
34. Kuwait
35. Malaysia
44. Bhutan
UAE squad
Chaya Mughal (captain), Natasha Cherriath, Samaira Dharnidharka, Kavisha Egodage, Mahika Gaur, Priyanjali Jain, Suraksha Kotte, Vaishnave Mahesh, Judit Peter, Esha Rohit, Theertha Satish, Chamani Seneviratne, Khushi Sharma, Subha Venkataraman
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
The biog
Alwyn Stephen says much of his success is a result of taking an educated chance on business decisions.
His advice to anyone starting out in business is to have no fear as life is about taking on challenges.
“If you have the ambition and dream of something, follow that dream, be positive, determined and set goals.
"Nothing and no-one can stop you from succeeding with the right work application, and a little bit of luck along the way.”
Mr Stephen sells his luxury fragrances at selected perfumeries around the UAE, including the House of Niche Boutique in Al Seef.
He relaxes by spending time with his family at home, and enjoying his wife’s India cooking.
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
Nancy 9 (Hassa Beek)
Nancy Ajram
(In2Musica)
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mobile phone packages comparison
Votes
Total votes: 1.8 million
Ashraf Ghani: 923,592 votes
Abdullah Abdullah: 720,841 votes
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
