“For however the fortune of war shall go, may it not so end that much that was fair and wonderful shall pass for ever?” King Theoden in The Lord of the Rings laments the end of the Ents, magical tree-herders.
Even if we tackle climate change successfully, some beauty and marvels of the nature and human worlds will be lost to us. Our children and grandchildren may never know polar bears, unspoilt coral reefs, the Piazza San Marco in Venice, a verdant Amazon rainforest, or the Anse Source d’Argent beach in the Seychelles.
If we are from parched, semi-arid, or low-lying coastal countries, our children and grandchildren may not know our land at all – they may be fated to be refugees from climatic catastrophes and conflict.
Reaching net zero at some date – whether 2050, like the target of the UAE, UK and US, the 2060 of Saudi Arabia and China – is good but not enough
But this is not another despair-inducing screed about climate doom. The climate summit Cop28 opens in Dubai on Thursday. And like Cop, this article is about where we are now, where we will soon be, and what to do about it.
This year is set to be the hottest on record. October was 1.7 degrees hotter than pre-industrial levels. The El Nino effect in the eastern Pacific, after an unusually extended period of its colder opposite La Nina, brings hotter global weather in general.
Cleaning up pollution from sulphur-containing fuels in ships, following regulation in 2020, is good for human health, but the white “aerosol” particles had a helpful side-effect in reflecting some of the sun’s heat back into space. The reduction in sulphate pollution has warmed the busy shipping lanes of the North Atlantic in particular.
And in January 2022, the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai erupted. Tropical eruptions can sometimes release huge amounts of sulphate particles, with a similar cooling effect to that of the shipping pollution. But Hunga instead injected huge volumes of water into the stratosphere, and water vapour is itself a strong greenhouse gas.
As El Nino’s full effects take time, next year is likely to be hotter still. But the biggest culprit is not cyclical variations, volcanic eruptions or cleaner ships, but the ever-increasing volume of greenhouse gases we are adding to the atmosphere. The Paris Agreement of 2015 was intended to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. A single hot year does not invalidate that aim, but on current trends, it will be breached regularly by the 2030s.
If all countries meet the goals they set themselves in their Paris-related commitments, global emissions will remain roughly flat by 2030 at around 55 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases per year. That would still be a major achievement – in 2010, it looked as though we were heading for 65 billion tonnes or more.
Yet, to be on target to limit warming to 2°C – the original Paris goal, and still dangerously hot – emissions could be about 41 billion tonnes. For the 1.5°C goal, emissions should be no more than about 33 billion tonnes.
This leads to four important conclusions.
The recognition at Paris of the need to reach net-zero carbon – not just lower emissions – was crucial. Carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for thousands of years. So, the climate will keep getting hotter as long as carbon dioxide emissions continue faster than they can be removed.
Reaching net zero at some date – whether 2050, like the target of the UAE, UK and US, the 2060 of Saudi Arabia and China, or India’s 2070 – is good but not enough. The amount of global warming depends on cumulative emissions, not on the precise date of net zero. It’s far better to get on a path to rapid reductions now, than to imagine we can leave all the hard work to the 2040s, like a student pulling an all-nighter on a final essay.
Second, it’s increasingly unlikely that, whatever our efforts and the successful agreements at Cop28, we will stay below 1.5°C of warming. That isn’t a counsel of despair – it’s a vital recognition of reality that clears the mind for what to do next.
Third, every fraction of a degree matters. We can’t precisely ascribe tenths of a degree to differences in emissions, but we do know that 1.6°C is better than 1.7°C, which is better than 1.8°C.
Fourth, we have no more opportunity for half-measures, for ideological fetters. We have to be absolutely clear about the task at hand. The goal of climate policy is not to overthrow global capitalism, punish the greedy carbon-spewing rich, end the use of fossil fuels, revive the Western working class, introduce a more just social order, right historic injustices, or rebalance geopolitics.
It is to cut net emissions as fast as possible and cope with the inevitable damaging consequences of a hotter world. Of course, we should seize positive social, environmental and economic opportunities where they arise, and at least not make things worse.
As wartime leader Winston Churchill said, “It is not enough that we do our best; sometimes we must do what is required.”
Cop28 will call for a tripling of renewable energy capacity – which we’re probably close to on-track for – and a doubling of energy efficiency, which we are not. The era of burning fossil fuels and spewing the exhaust into the atmosphere has to end very soon. But that favourite environmental approach is not the wrong answer, but an incomplete one.
The odd hostility in the environmental and much of the journalistic community towards nuclear power and carbon capture needs to reverse – every serious scientific climate scenario has them also playing important parts in Plan A. Plan B includes quicker, cleaner and cheaper ways to remove atmospheric carbon dioxide – not as an alternative to urgent emissions cuts today, but as an essential complement.
And given the increasingly obvious and damaging effects of even 1.5°C of warming, we need Plan C too – cleaner, controlled ways to replicate the cooling effect of those polluting ships and sulphur-bearing volcanoes. Those who dismiss this as dangerous geo-engineering should acknowledge we’ve been running a much larger, unplanned experiment on the Earth’s climate since James Watt’s steam engine in 1765.
We need to advance Plans B and C, not because we’ve given up on Plan A, but because we take every tonne of carbon and every tenth of a degree of warming with the ultimate seriousness. That is because every tree, every rare creature, every great monument of human culture and every child saved from the ravages of a burning, melting planet is one less tragedy.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of ‘The Myth of the Oil Crisis’
Huddersfield Town permanent signings:
- Steve Mounie (striker): signed from Montpellier for £11 million
- Tom Ince (winger): signed from Derby County for £7.7m
- Aaron Mooy (midfielder): signed from Manchester City for £7.7m
- Laurent Depoitre (striker): signed from Porto for £3.4m
- Scott Malone (defender): signed from Fulham for £3.3m
- Zanka (defender): signed from Copenhagen for £2.3m
- Elias Kachunga (winger): signed for Ingolstadt for £1.1m
- Danny WIlliams (midfielder): signed from Reading on a free transfer
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (All UAE kick-off times)
Lecce v SPAL (6pm)
Bologna v Genoa (9pm)
Atlanta v Roma (11.45pm)
Sunday
Udinese v Hellas Verona (3.30pm)
Juventus v Brescia (6pm)
Sampdoria v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sassuolo v Parma (6pm)
Cagliari v Napoli (9pm)
Lazio v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Monday
AC Milan v Torino (11.45pm)
Director: Jon Favreau
Starring: Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, John Oliver
Rating: 2 out of 5 stars
'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
You Were Never Really Here
Director: Lynne Ramsay
Starring: Joaquim Phoenix, Ekaterina Samsonov
Four stars
RACE RESULTS
1. Valtteri Bottas (FIN/Mercedes) 1hr 21min 48.527sec
2. Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari) at 0.658sec
3. Daniel Ricciardo (AUS/Red Bull) 6.012
4. Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes) 7.430
5. Kimi Räikkönen (FIN/Ferrari) 20.370
6. Romain Grosjean (FRA/Haas) 1:13.160
7. Sergio Pérez (MEX/Force India) 1 lap
8. Esteban Ocon (FRA/Force India) 1 lap
9. Felipe Massa (BRA/Williams) 1 lap
10. Lance Stroll (CAN/Williams) 1 lap
11. Jolyon Palmer (GBR/Renault) 1 lap
12. Stoffel Vandoorne (BEL/McLaren) 1 lap
13. Nico Hülkenberg (GER/Renault) 1 lap
14. Pascal Wehrlein (GER/Sauber) 1 lap
15. Marcus Ericsson (SWE/Sauber) 2 laps
16. Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Toro Rosso) 3 laps
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COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Letstango.com
Started: June 2013
Founder: Alex Tchablakian
Based: Dubai
Industry: e-commerce
Initial investment: Dh10 million
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 300,000 unique customers every month
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
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Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
England v West Indies
England squad for the first Test Cook, Stoneman, Westley, Root (captain), Malan, Stokes, Bairstow, Moeen, Roland-Jones, Broad, Anderson, Woakes, Crane
Fixtures
1st Test Aug 17-21, Edgbaston
2nd Test Aug 25-29, Headingley
3rd Test Sep 7-11, Lord's
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
NYBL PROFILE
Company name: Nybl
Date started: November 2018
Founder: Noor Alnahhas, Michael LeTan, Hafsa Yazdni, Sufyaan Abdul Haseeb, Waleed Rifaat, Mohammed Shono
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software Technology / Artificial Intelligence
Initial investment: $500,000
Funding round: Series B (raising $5m)
Partners/Incubators: Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 4, Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 6, AI Venture Labs Cohort 1, Microsoft Scale-up
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
