When my father was born, European and American homes were heated with coal, horses were still a common means of transportation, and there was no such thing as nuclear power. My children may well make it into the 22nd century when I hope today’s energy systems will seem as antiquated.
In an attempt to overcome our natural short-termism, residents of the Japanese town of Yahaba imagined themselves as their grandchildren when making public decisions. That is a recipe for choosing wisely in energy and climate. Major pieces of energy infrastructure – hydroelectric dams, nuclear plants, pipelines – may operate for 80 years or more if maintained well.
Researching a new energy technology and bringing it into widespread commercial use takes decades.
The first photovoltaic panel was invented in 1883, solar-powered components were widely used on satellites by Nasa in the 1960s, but only in the last few years has solar power become ubiquitous in regular electricity generation.
Climate works on an even longer timescale. Thirty-six years after the major US congressional hearings that brought attention to global warming were held, half of the American political establishment still refuses to take the issue seriously.
Melting of much of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets now appears inevitable. This could cause more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100, compared to about 23cm globally since 1880. But we’re already dangerously close to warming of 2ºC – which over centuries could irreversibly increase water levels by more than 12 metres.
Even the best and costliest sea defences would not stop the drowning of all the world’s great coastal cities, and the densely-populated, fertile deltas and floodplains of the Mississippi, Rhine, Nile, Niger, Ganges and Yangtze. What would we think today of unthinking Tudor, Ming or Moghul rulers who had yoked us to such a dismal destiny?
By contrast, politicians in most countries work on a four or five-year cycle.
Since 2015, the UK has had five prime ministers, and nine energy ministers, under three different job descriptions. Some of these ministers were tasked to drum up business, some to protect the environment, some to lead scientific innovation and some to safeguard energy security and cut inflation – whatever the political imperative of the week.
Today’s energy and climate plans have several weaknesses that reflect short-term thinking. They stick too closely to today’s technologies. Tomorrow’s innovations, by definition, cannot be predicted; at best, some can be dimly anticipated.
In the 1960s, Stanford computer scientist Roy Amara said: “We overestimate the impact of technology in the short-term and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
The media is full of miraculous discoveries that never turn into practical or commercial devices. But others, like hydraulic fracturing or the internet, emerge from decades of quiet work to become overnight successes.
Today artificial intelligence, Crispr gene-editing technology and nuclear fusion are popular candidates for breakthroughs, but the truly transformative technology of this century may be something entirely different.
Second, they assume that energy demand remains similar to today’s, with some predictable changes: more gadgets and travel, bigger homes, a richer Asia and eventually Africa, more air-conditioning in a hotter climate, and incremental efficiency improvements.
Other than wood, the average person in 1800 consumed the energy equivalent of about 10g of oil annually, all in the form of coal. Today that is more than 200 times higher, about 1.7 tonnes of oil equivalent, and includes coal, petroleum, gas, and electricity from uranium, wind turbines and solar panels.
But what about a radically dematerialised civilisation that lives mostly virtually? Or where people live for two centuries through life-extending methods? Or a throwaway society that 3D-prints and discards, that flies hypersonically from London to Sydney in two hours for a weekend bash, holidays in space and mines asteroids?
Third, they work within an assumed linear, stable framework of economic, political and social relations. That’s after the past 100 years saw a world war, a Cold War, several epochal revolutions and financial crises, and a global pandemic.
There were 64 fully sovereign countries just before the Second World War – just one of them in Africa. Today there are 195. The colonial empires have evaporated. China and India have risen to become great powers. Similar upheavals await, even in the optimistic case that we avoid some cataclysm.
An international system based on nation states may not endure, in a world of growing disorder in some places, greater transnational co-ordination elsewhere, and the rising role of global corporations and perhaps new types of organisation, even extraplanetary ones.
Faced with such bewildering uncertainties, how do we plan anything long-term in energy and climate policy? This brings us back to the residents of Japan’s Yahaba and imagining ourselves as our grandchildren.
The intended net-zero carbon date for the UAE and many other countries seems far off. But it is only 26 years away – well within a single professional career. Often we see climate solutions dismissed with the argument that they will not work by mid-century. Indeed we need urgency to deal with our current problems.
But history does not stop in 2050. Planting a seed today that grows to maturity in 2100 is a worthy act. Coal, oil, gas and other critical materials of today come and go, but that seed – an innovation, an institution, an intellectual insight, an item of infrastructure – will yield fruit forever.
We should not foreclose our descendants’ futures. That means bequeathing them possibilities, not destroying that which can never be recreated, not abandoning knowledge or skills or the path of innovation and not trapping them in fossilised social or political structures. As far as possible, we need to rise above our parochial concerns, ephemeral ideologies and prejudices.
We should cultivate awareness of history as a guide not to what will happen, but what could happen. Simultaneously, we build on hints of possible futures from deep insights into science’s unanswered questions, new technological frontiers and the remorseless march of demographics or economics.
What kind of a world do we want to leave to our grandchildren? One without rainforests, corals and polar bears, where existence is a desperate struggle to salvage something from rising seas, encroaching deserts and collapsing states? One where a harsh autocratic hand holds back progress and doles out rations of electricity to a constrained society? Or where hard work and ingenuity have stabilised the climate, provided energy, prosperity and freedom to all, and launched humanity into exploration of the new outer and inner worlds of the 2100s?
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of 'Capturing Carbon'
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
ON%20TRACK
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Jebel Ali Dragons 26 Bahrain 23
Dragons
Tries: Hayes, Richards, Cooper
Cons: Love
Pens: Love 3
Bahrain
Tries: Kenny, Crombie, Tantoh
Cons: Phillips
Pens: Phillips 2
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Sour%20Grapes
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZakaria%20Tamer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESyracuse%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E176%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Results
Male 51kg Round 1
Dias Karmanov (KAZ) beat Mabrook Rasea (YEM) by points 2-1.
Male 54kg Round 1
Yelaman Sayassatov (KAZ) beat Chen Huang (TPE) TKO Round 1; Huynh Hoang Phi (VIE) beat Fahad Anakkayi (IND) RSC Round 2; Qais Al Jamal (JOR) beat Man Long Ng (MAC) by points 3-0; Ayad Albadr (IRQ) beat Yashar Yazdani (IRI) by points 2-1.
Male 57kg Round 1
Natthawat Suzikong (THA) beat Abdallah Ondash (LBN) by points 3-0; Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Ahmed Al Jubainawi (IRQ) by points 2-1; Hamed Almatari (YEM) beat Nasser Al Rugheeb (KUW) by points 3-0; Zakaria El Jamari (UAE) beat Yu Xi Chen (TPE) by points 3-0.
Men 86kg Round 1
Ahmad Bahman (UAE) beat Mohammad Al Khatib (PAL) by points 2-1
Men 63.5kg Round 1
Noureddin Samir (UAE) beat Polash Chakma (BAN) RSC Round 1.
Female 45kg quarter finals
Narges Mohammadpour (IRI) beat Yuen Wai Chan (HKG) by points.
Female 48kg quarter finals
Szi Ki Wong (HKG) beat Dimple Vaishnav (IND) RSC round 2; Thanawan Thongduang (THA) beat Nastaran Soori (IRI) by points; Shabnam Hussain Zada (AFG) beat Tzu Ching Lin (TPE) by points.
Female 57kg quarter finals
Nguyen Thi Nguyet (VIE) beat Anisha Shetty (IND) by points 2-1; Areeya Sahot (THA) beat Dana Al Mayyal (KUW) RSC Round 1; Sara Idriss (LBN) beat Ching Yee Tsang (HKG) by points 3-0.
GCC-UK%20Growth
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The Bloomberg Billionaire Index in full
1 Jeff Bezos $140 billion
2 Bill Gates $98.3 billion
3 Bernard Arnault $83.1 billion
4 Warren Buffett $83 billion
5 Amancio Ortega $67.9 billion
6 Mark Zuckerberg $67.3 billion
7 Larry Page $56.8 billion
8 Larry Ellison $56.1 billion
9 Sergey Brin $55.2 billion
10 Carlos Slim $55.2 billion
BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETamer%20Ruggli%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadine%20Labaki%2C%20Fanny%20Ardant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP
Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan
Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri
The biog
Name: Mariam Ketait
Emirate: Dubai
Hobbies: I enjoy travelling, experiencing new things, painting, reading, flying, and the French language
Favourite quote: "Be the change you wish to see" - unknown
Favourite activity: Connecting with different cultures
ELECTION%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3EMacron%E2%80%99s%20Ensemble%20group%20won%20245%20seats.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20second-largest%20group%20in%20parliament%20is%20Nupes%2C%20a%20leftist%20coalition%20led%20by%20Jean-Luc%20Melenchon%2C%20which%20gets%20131%20lawmakers.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20far-right%20National%20Rally%20fared%20much%20better%20than%20expected%20with%2089%20seats.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20centre-right%20Republicans%20and%20their%20allies%20took%2061.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Seven%20Winters%20in%20Tehran
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%20%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Steffi%20Niederzoll%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Reyhaneh%20Jabbari%2C%20Shole%20Pakravan%2C%20Zar%20Amir%20Ebrahimi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HEY%20MERCEDES%2C%20WHAT%20CAN%20YOU%20DO%20FOR%20ME%3F
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The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Liverpool 4 (Salah (pen 4, 33', & pen 88', Van Dijk (20')
Leeds United 3 (Harrison 12', Bamford 30', Klich 66')
Man of the match Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
Tell Me Who I Am
Director: Ed Perkins
Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis
Four stars
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
RESULTS
6.30pm Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner Canvassed, Par Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
7.05pm Meydan Cup – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,810m
Winner Dubai Future, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Mouheeb, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
8.15pm Firebreak Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
9.50pm Meydan Classic – Conditions (TB) $$50,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Topper Bill, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
9.25pm Dubai Sprint – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Man Of Promise, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
THE BIO:
Sabri Razouk, 74
Athlete and fitness trainer
Married, father of six
Favourite exercise: Bench press
Must-eat weekly meal: Steak with beans, carrots, broccoli, crust and corn
Power drink: A glass of yoghurt
Role model: Any good man
