Sometimes friendly enemies, sometimes wary friends, the International Energy Agency and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries are the poles of global energy management.
The Paris-based IEA has come under criticism from many sides in the past few years: environmentalists, oil companies and Opec itself.
But the challenges it grapples with pose some important lessons for its doppelganger in Vienna.
The latest round of debate began with an article last month in the Wall Street Journal by Robert McNally, a co-worker of mine at the Columbia Centre on Global Energy Policy, and a former official under the presidency of George W Bush.
Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Centre and previously energy adviser to former president Barack Obama, responded to defend the IEA.
So where does this debate come from, and what does it mean for future energy policy?
The IEA was set up in 1973 at the instigation of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, to counterbalance Opec and ensure energy security in the throes of the first great oil shock.
It brought together most of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development members in North America, Western Europe and Japan – all wealthy industrialised nations. It introduced policies such as conservation, emergency responses and strategic stocks.
The IEA has steadily extended its remit since, covering other forms of energy, adding eastern European members, and taking on as associates India, China, Egypt and other developing countries.
Under the leadership of Fatih Birol, who became executive director in 2015, it has taken on a more active and outspoken role in climate policy. Notably, Mr Birol also served at Opec early in his career.
However, the IEA has faced criticism from environmentalists, notably for its repeated under-predictions of global solar power deployment. They felt it was overly wedded to its origins in fossil fuel security. That was one of the motivations for establishing another body, the International Renewable Energy Agency or Irena, in 2011, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, even though the IEA also analyses renewables.
On a second front, the IEA has several times fallen out with Opec. The two, from their nearby diplomatic capitals, have at times engaged constructively, notably through the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum.
But Opec has also been suspicious of the IEA’s origin – it was, after all, intended to weaken the hold of the leading oil exporters over western countries.
The IEA has typically called on Opec to raise production and implicitly to lower prices when the members of the Vienna organisation often felt their interests lay the other way.
Most recently, Opec has been vocally critical of the IEA over its apparent calls for an end to investment in new oil and gasfields, and its prediction of a peak in demand for all three main fossil fuels as early as this decade.
In November, secretary general Haitham Al Ghais said that the IEA “unjustly vilifies the [petroleum] industry” and that the agency was playing down energy security, access and affordability.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, told the World Petroleum Congress in September that the IEA had “moved from being a forecaster and assessors of market to one for political advocacy”.
Mr McNally’s core criticism of the IEA is that it has become excessively focused on the energy transition and climate policy, to the detriment of its original mission. The inattention of European leaders to traditional energy security became obvious in the desperate scramble for oil, gas and electrons in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He argues that the agency’s long-term forecasts are no longer objective because they put too much weight on net-zero carbon policies and governments’ aspirations, that are not being delivered in reality or are vulnerable to reversal. He also criticises the decision to drop a baseline scenario in which only current policies apply, and against which all other scenarios could be weighed.
Mr Bordoff and the IEA responded that positing a world in which no policies change is itself politicised. It risks being just as unrealistic as assuming the adoption and delivery of ambitious net-zero policies.
One reason the IEA previously kept underestimating solar deployment was precisely because it did not allow for the progressively stronger policies enacted by countries such as Germany, nor the fall in solar costs that accompanied this.
However, technological breakthroughs are, by their very nature, hard to forecast.
The IEA, and most other analysts, did not expect the substantial growth of US shale gas and oil output. Conversely, advanced biofuels, hydrogen and nuclear power have not lived up to past optimistic expectations – often because they did not enjoy the powerful elixir of policy support that powered solar and wind growth.
In other industries, artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, biotech and space travel have been through several cycles of hype and disappointment.
This has become even more salient since the announcement last month that India was in talks to join. Full membership had previously been restricted to the high-income members of the OECD. It’s not clear by what legal workaround India may be allowed in.
The inclusion of India, which is likely to overtake China as the main long-term driver of growth in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, would radically change the IEA. Analyst Vandana Hari argues that New Delhi should withdraw its application, as the IEA’s energy transition mission is too far apart from India’s needs for energy security.
Still, Opec should not indulge in Schadenfreude over its twin’s troubles. It too must wrestle with similar problems. How does it safeguard its members’ interests in producing and exporting oil, while acknowledging the reality and urgency of the climate crisis? Global warming and sea-level rise will hurt the GCC states, Iraq, Nigeria and other Opec members.
How does it allow the transition of their economies? How does it engage constructively with its major clients, notably India and China, who sometimes complain of high oil prices, and who have their energy transition plans? And how does it incorporate the profound – if uncertain – long-term effect on oil and gas consumption of technologies such as electric vehicles, renewables and advanced batteries?
In contrast to the IEA, Opec sees demand for oil rising robustly to at least 2045.
With the formation of Opec+, the Vienna organisation has been even more active in broadening its geographic reach than the IEA.
Perhaps now is the time to take a leaf from the book in Paris, and widen its mission in the face of a transforming energy world.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Arabian Gulf Cup FINAL
Al Nasr 2
(Negredo 1, Tozo 50)
Shabab Al Ahli 1
(Jaber 13)
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The team
Videographer: Jear Velasquez
Photography: Romeo Perez
Fashion director: Sarah Maisey
Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory
Models: Meti and Clinton at MMG
Video assistant: Zanong Maget
Social media: Fatima Al Mahmoud
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Other IPL batting records
Most sixes: 292 – Chris Gayle
Most fours: 491 – Gautam Gambhir
Highest individual score: 175 not out – Chris Gayle (for Royal Challengers Bangalore against Pune Warriors in 2013)
Highest strike-rate: 177.29 – Andre Russell
Highest strike-rate in an innings: 422.22 – Chris Morris (for Delhi Daredevils against Rising Pune Supergiant in 2017)
Highest average: 52.16 – Vijay Shankar
Most centuries: 6 – Chris Gayle
Most fifties: 36 – Gautam Gambhir
Fastest hundred (balls faced): 30 – Chris Gayle (for Royal Challengers Bangalore against Pune Warriors in 2013)
Fastest fifty (balls faced): 14 – Lokesh Rahul (for Kings XI Punjab against Delhi Daredevils in 2018)
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What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
Watch live
The National will broadcast live from the IMF on Friday October 13 at 7pm UAE time (3pm GMT) as our Editor-in-Chief Mina Al-Oraibi moderates a panel on how technology can help growth in MENA.
You can find out more here
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EXPATS
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Schedule:
Pakistan v Sri Lanka:
28 Sep-2 Oct, 1st Test, Abu Dhabi
6-10 Oct, 2nd Test (day-night), Dubai
13 Oct, 1st ODI, Dubai
16 Oct, 2nd ODI, Abu Dhabi
18 Oct, 3rd ODI, Abu Dhabi
20 Oct, 4th ODI, Sharjah
23 Oct, 5th ODI, Sharjah
26 Oct, 1st T20I, Abu Dhabi
27 Oct, 2nd T20I, Abu Dhabi
29 Oct, 3rd T20I, Lahore
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Isle of Dogs
Director: Wes Anderson
Starring: Bryan Cranston, Liev Schreiber, Ed Norton, Greta Gerwig, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Scarlett Johansson
Three stars
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
