Many commentators have claimed that Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption drive, launched dramatically in early November, has had the unintended consequence of scaring away foreign investors just when the kingdom needs them.
Do those thinking of purchasing assets in Saudi Arabia have grounds for fearing arbitrary expropriation?
The short answer is “no”, and the view circulating from these commentators is a combination of strategic misinformation and ignorance. Let us explore why.
First of all, by way of background, all the Arabian Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, have an excellent track record when it comes to respecting property rights, especially of foreigners. This is to be contrasted with the performance of many Middle East republics, as well as lots of other emerging economies, where governments have succumbed to the temptation of seizing domestic, foreign-owned assets.
For example, as recently as 2012, Spain accused Argentina of expropriating its oil company, YPF, while the Gulf oil companies were all nationalised in a manner acceptable to the original owners. The is why countries like Bahrain and the UAE have been able to attract large amounts of foreign capital over the past 20 years.
However, it is fair to say that the actions of the Saudi government in early November were shocking and represented a seismic change in the way the country is run, necessitating a close examination by investors. When you search for what conclusions these investors have arrived at, ask yourself two questions.
First, does the person expressing the opinion have an incentive to deliver accurate information?
Second, does the person expressing the opinion have the knowledge required to deliver accurate information?
Let us start with the easiest corner in this matrix: people who know what they are talking about and have an incentive to tell the truth. The most salient occupant of this quadrant are international credit rating agencies - who dedicate their efforts to this task and whose livelihood depends upon it. None of the three major ones (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch) have changed Saudi Arabia’s rating. In fact, S&P issued an update in late November where they affirmed the A/A2 rating, with a stable outlook, and the focus of the report was fiscal consolidation. They even remarked that the reforms “could empower Saudi citizens and make Saudi Arabia more attractive to investors over the medium term”.
What about people who deliberately try to mislead the general public? In the case of Saudi investment, there are two types who fall into this category.
___________
Read more:
Economics 101: Contribution of Muslim economists needs greater acknowledgement
Economics 101: research studies are not easily swayed by conflict of interests
___________
First, actual investors. If you have discovered a good investment - especially one where the opportunity to invest will soon be available but isn’t yet officially open - then is it a good idea to tell everyone about this great investment? Actually, you want to do the precise opposite, to drive prices down. Once you have made your investment, you are happy for others to join on, but Aramco, Neom, and other projects are not yet open for business. So if a journalist contacts one of these experts, it’s absolutely in their incentive to talk negatively.
Naturally, there are experts who are prepared to professionally convey what credit agencies report, but they have little incentive to harry media outlets into interviewing them, and their basic “business as usual” view is unattractive to readers and viewers - and therefore to media editors.
Second, people who dislike Saudi Arabia. Geo-politically, the kingdom has as many friends as foes, so we can assume that they about cancel each other out. But normal journalists - who tend to lean left politically - dislike Saudi Arabia for three reasons: it’s a monarchy; clerics have historically had a strong role in government and society; and many (mistakenly) liken the kingdom’s oil wealth to an aristocrat’s “unearned” inheritance. It’s basically a dystopia for 18th century French politician Maximilien Robbespiere. Thus, such journalists’ default propensity is to write negatively about Saudi Arabia, and it’s not hard to see hyperbolic examples in the media on a daily basis. This is exacerbated by the general currents of Islamophobia and racism among readers and viewers that adversely affect the coverage of any Middle East country.
That leaves uninformed but well-intentioned reporters. They take their lead from the aforementioned experts or from their colleagues who express conviction, both of which tends to push them in the direction of negative coverage, too.
We shouldn’t be too dismissive of scepticism about investment in Saudi Arabia, however, as the global financial crisis of 2007 shows that credit rating agencies are capable of spectacular errors.
But you should remind yourself that successful investors do not get their ideas watching experts ruminate on satellite news channels: by the time they have reached the morning news, “hot tips” are typically useless. The stakes in investment are so high, and financial assets can be transferred so quickly, that mainstream media is a uniquely terrible source of information about the investment-worthiness of a particular stock, bond, or country.
Basic conflicts of interest mean that asking Warren Buffet to comment on the Aramco IPO will always be more precarious than asking Pele to comment on the future star of the Brazilian football team.
Omar Al-Ubaydli (@omareconomics) is a researcher at Derasat, Bahrain.
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club race card
5pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic (PA) Prestige; Dh110,000; 1,400m
5.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic (PA) Prestige; Dh110,000; 1,400m
6pm: Maiden (PA); Dh80,000; 1,600m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (PA) Listed; Dh180,000; 1,600m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap; Dh70,000; 2,200m
7.30pm: Handicap (PA); Dh100,000; 2,400m
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
RESULTS
5pm: Rated Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: AF Mouthirah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Abubakar Daud
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Tair, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
Winner: Son Of Normandy, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800Nm%20at%202%2C750-6%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERear-mounted%20eight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13.6L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Orderbook%20open%3B%20deliveries%20start%20end%20of%20year%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh970%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TOURNAMENT INFO
Fixtures
Sunday January 5 - Oman v UAE
Monday January 6 - UAE v Namibia
Wednesday January 8 - Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 - Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid, Darius D’Silva, Karthik Meiyappan, Jonathan Figy, Vriitya Aravind, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Chirag Suri
The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
'Spies in Disguise'
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Stars: Will Smith, Tom Holland, Karen Gillan and Roshida Jones
Rating: 4 out of 5 stars
Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Match info
Australia 580
Pakistan 240 and 335
Result: Australia win by an innings and five runs
Scores
Scotland 54-17 Fiji
England 15-16 New Zealand
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cyl%20turbo%20%2B%20mild%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E204hp%20at%205%2C800rpm%20%2B23hp%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C800rpm%20%2B205Nm%20hybrid%20boost%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.3L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2FDecember%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh205%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Charlotte Gainsbourg
Rest
(Because Music)
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group F
Manchester City v Hoffenheim, midnight (Wednesday, UAE)
Europa League group stage draw
Group A: Villarreal, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Astana, Slavia Prague.
Group B: Dynamo Kiev, Young Boys, Partizan Belgrade, Skenderbeu.
Group C: Sporting Braga, Ludogorets, Hoffenheim, Istanbul Basaksehir.
Group D: AC Milan, Austria Vienna , Rijeka, AEK Athens.
Group E: Lyon, Everton, Atalanta, Apollon Limassol.
Group F: FC Copenhagen, Lokomotiv Moscow, Sheriff Tiraspol, FC Zlin.
Group G: Vitoria Plzen, Steaua Bucarest, Hapoel Beer-Sheva, FC Lugano.
Group H: Arsenal, BATE Borisov, Cologne, Red Star Belgrade.
Group I: Salzburg, Marseille, Vitoria Guimaraes, Konyaspor.
Group J: Athletic Bilbao, Hertha Berlin, Zorya Luhansk, Ostersund.
Group K: Lazio, Nice, Zulte Waregem, Vitesse Arnhem.
Group L: Zenit St Petersburg, Real Sociedad, Rosenborg, Vardar
The drill
Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.
Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”
Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”
Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.”
The biog
Hobby: "It is not really a hobby but I am very curious person. I love reading and spend hours on research."
Favourite author: Malcom Gladwell
Favourite travel destination: "Antigua in the Caribbean because I have emotional attachment to it. It is where I got married."
Fixtures
Wednesday
4.15pm: Japan v Spain (Group A)
5.30pm: UAE v Italy (Group A)
6.45pm: Russia v Mexico (Group B)
8pm: Iran v Egypt (Group B)
MATCH INFO
Europa League semi-final, second leg
Atletico Madrid (1) v Arsenal (1)
Where: Wanda Metropolitano
When: Thursday, kick-off 10.45pm
Live: On BeIN Sports HD
11 cabbie-recommended restaurants and dishes to try in Abu Dhabi
Iqbal Restaurant behind Wendy’s on Hamdan Street for the chicken karahi (Dh14)
Pathemari in Navy Gate for prawn biryani (from Dh12 to Dh35)
Abu Al Nasar near Abu Dhabi Mall, for biryani (from Dh12 to Dh20)
Bonna Annee at Navy Gate for Ethiopian food (the Bonna Annee special costs Dh42 and comes with a mix of six house stews – key wet, minchet abesh, kekel, meser be sega, tibs fir fir and shiro).
Al Habasha in Tanker Mai for Ethiopian food (tibs, a hearty stew with meat, is a popular dish; here it costs Dh36.75 for lamb and beef versions)
Himalayan Restaurant in Mussaffa for Nepalese (the momos and chowmein noodles are best-selling items, and go for between Dh14 and Dh20)
Makalu in Mussaffa for Nepalese (get the chicken curry or chicken fry for Dh11)
Al Shaheen Cafeteria near Guardian Towers for a quick morning bite, especially the egg sandwich in paratha (Dh3.50)
Pinky Food Restaurant in Tanker Mai for tilapia
Tasty Zone for Nepalese-style noodles (Dh15)
Ibrahimi for Pakistani food (a quarter chicken tikka with roti costs Dh16)
The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
Gulf Men's League final
Dubai Hurricanes 24-12 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
