Goldman Sachs Group’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.
Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year, rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent by the end of the year.
Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.
The switch came days after Fed chairman Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4 per cent in the year through December, the most in two decades.
“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”
The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.
Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.
Bank of America Corp now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co and Deutsche Bank see five.
Nomura Holdings even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.
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Michael Young: From one crisis to the next, where is Lebanon headed?
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Whiile you're here
Damien McElroy: Anti-science attitudes in America are proving lethal
Editorial: What makes the UAE such a good place to test vaccines?
Editorial: The fight against Covid-19 should be guided by science
The specs
MATCH INFO
Day 1 at Mount Maunganui
England 241-4
Denly 74, Stokes 67 not out, De Grandhomme 2-28
New Zealand
Yet to bat
FORSPOKEN
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Suicide%20Squad%3A%20Kill%20the%20Justice%20League
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Street%20Fighter%206
Diablo%20IV
Baldur's%20Gate%203
The%20Legend%20of%20Zelda%3A%20Tears%20of%20The%20Kingdom
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
Starfield
2.0
Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
More on Turkey's Syria offence
Editorial: Turkey using refugees as mere pawns in a dangerous game
Simon Waldman: Is Turkey creating another European migrant crisis?
Raghida Dergham: Russia is weighing its options against Turkey
While you're here
Hussein Ibish: There are reasons for Democrats and Republicans to be happy
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Who are the women driving Joe Biden's success?
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The specs
Engine: 5.2-litre V10
Power: 640hp at 8,000rpm
Torque: 565Nm at 6,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: From Dh1 million
On sale: Q3 or Q4 2022
Results
Light Flyweight (49kg): Mirzakhmedov Nodirjon (UZB) beat Daniyal Sabit (KAZ) by points 5-0.
Flyweight (52kg): Zoirov Shakhobidin (UZB) beat Amit Panghol (IND) 3-2.
Bantamweight (56kg): Kharkhuu Enkh-Amar (MGL) beat Mirazizbek Mirzahalilov (UZB) 3-2.
Lightweight (60kg): Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (MGL) beat Daniyal Shahbakhsh (IRI) 5-0.
Light Welterweight (64kg): Baatarsukh Chinzorig (MGL) beat Shiva Thapa (IND) 3-2.
Welterweight (69kg): Bobo-Usmon Baturov (UZB) beat Ablaikhan Zhussupov (KAZ) RSC round-1.
Middleweight (75kg): Jafarov Saidjamshid (UZB) beat Abilkhan Amankul (KAZ) 4-1.
Light Heavyweight (81kg): Ruzmetov Dilshodbek (UZB) beat Meysam Gheshlaghi (IRI) 3-2.
Heavyweight (91kg): Sanjeet (IND) beat Vassiliy Levit (KAZ) 4-1.
Super Heavyweight ( 91kg): Jalolov Bakhodir (UZB) beat Kamshibek Kunkabayev (KAZ) 5-0.
Specs
Engine: 2-litre
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 255hp
Torque: 273Nm
Price: Dh240,000
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
RESULT
Brazil 2 Croatia 0
Brazil: Neymar (69'), Firmino (90' 3)
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
