Global trade in April is expected to have increased 2.1 per cent compared with the previous month despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact of China’s Covid-19 movement restrictions, Kiel Trade Indicator data shows.
The last time there was a comparable increase in global trade was in January, before the outbreak of the war, figures compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy showed. However, congestion in container shipping remained at a high level in April.
“The initial shockwaves of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to global trade in goods appear to have been digested and trade data in April is stabilising,” said Vincent Stamer, head of Kiel Trade Indicator.
“Almost all major economies can expect growth or at least a sideways movement.”
The Covid-19 crisis highlighted significant challenges in the logistics sector, with many cargo customers struggling to find shipping containers and overcome labour disruption. The acute supply chain bottlenecks have led to congestion and delays at ports, a shortage in containers and a sharp rise in the cost of shipping goods.
The World Trade Organisation projects that the Russia-Ukraine crisis could lower global gross domestic product growth by 0.7 to 1.3 percentage points, bringing it to between 3.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent for 2022, it said in an April report.
The organisation revised down its forecast for global trade growth this year to 3 per cent from 4.7 per cent earlier, due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Global trade growth in 2023 is expected to be 3.4 per cent.
US exports were up 5 per cent month-on-month in April, while imports were expected to fall slightly by 1.4 per cent, according to the Kiel Trade Indicator.
Looking at the EU’s April trade, the outlook was positive for both exports, up 0.7 per cent, and imports, up 1.1 per cent.
For Germany, exports were expected to have increased 3.2 per cent and imports 1.4 per cent.
Both Chinese exports and imports were expected to have stagnated and trade remained at March levels, the Kiel Trade Indicator for April showed. Imports declined by 0.9 per cent.
“While the Shanghai lockdown is slowing export growth in China, declines in trade appear to be confined to the port of Shanghai,” Mr Stamer said.
“The gap in goods exports has levelled off at around 25 per cent compared to China’s other ports. But that also means that despite the lockdown, a large proportion of all goods are still leaving the port, which is a good sign for global supply chains.”
For Russia’s trade in April, exports declined a moderate 1.6 per cent, while imports were likely to increase 2.3 per cent compared with March, the data showed.
Meanwhile, global congestion on the container ship network remains at a high level, with about 11 per cent of all goods shipped worldwide stuck, according to the Kiel Trade Indicator.
“Russia may be starting to substitute imports from Europe with imports from Asia. This is indicated by the fact that the port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea has recently seen a significant increase in the number of container ships arriving, whereas the port of St Petersburg, which is involved in European trade, continues to record declines,” Mr Stamer said.
Global trade increased an annual 25 per cent last year to a record $28.5 trillion after being battered by the pandemic, a February report from the UN Conference on Trade and Development showed.
It increased about 13 per cent compared with 2019, the agency said.
The positive trend for trade was primarily the result of an increase in “commodity prices, subsiding pandemic restrictions and a strong recovery in demand due to economic stimulus packages”, Unctad said.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UNSC Elections 2022-23
Seats open:
- Two for Africa Group
- One for Asia-Pacific Group (traditionally Arab state or Tunisia)
- One for Latin America and Caribbean Group
- One for Eastern Europe Group
Countries so far running:
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.