Russian efforts to rewire trade flows and bypass sanctions imposed because of the war in Ukraine cannot make up for the collapse in imports that is crippling its economy.
One stark result so far: for the first time, Belarus, a neighbouring country, in April leapfrogged Germany — an economy more than 60 times bigger — in terms of the value of imports to Russia, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the latest data.
“The market practically crashed” this spring, said Andrey Pobezhimov, head of international logistics at SDEK, one of Russia’s biggest express delivery companies.
“Today, it is very difficult to bring cargo from Europe; sometimes almost impossible.”
Russia has made it harder to obtain an accurate reading of its economy because it stopped publishing some key statistics, including a detailed breakdown of imports and exports.
However, a picture that emerges from figures made available by Russia’s biggest counterparts is one of a commercial pecking order turned upside down.
Sales to Russia from trading partners that together accounted for about half of its imports in 2021 were down about 40 per cent in April from a year earlier, Bloomberg calculations show.
Even those, such as China, which have not joined the US and its allies in imposing sanctions, are cutting shipments of merchandise.
Russia's military offensive in Ukraine, which began in late February, was a moment of whiplash for an economy so woven into global commerce after three decades that its imports as a share of gross domestic product in the years before the war were notably higher than in such emerging markets as Brazil, India and China.
But since a global backlash against the war disrupted supply chains and prompted numerous multinationals to pull out, Russians have had to make do or learn how to navigate a new obstacle course — sourcing ingredients from alternative foreign suppliers, scouring the world for new routes or finding other loopholes to haul in the wares.
Otkritie Research estimates the value of imports in April may have plunged to as low as $5 billion, down from about $27bn a year earlier.
As trade with much of Europe dries up, Belarus is emerging as one of the main beneficiaries. Its exports to Russia, of items ranging from construction materials to pet food, surged by more than 100 per cent in April when measured by value.
Boris, who asked to be identified only by first name, owns a large supermarket chain and factories across Russia. He said processing payments was initially an even bigger challenge than the delivery of shipments.
Enough workaround solutions are now available to ensure more shipments trickle through and imports start to recover, he said.
But another major threat looms as the EU’s fifth package of sanctions goes into effect in full next month.
Mr Boris, whose company relies on imports for about half the goods it sells, expects 5 per cent of its products to vanish from store shelves.
“We have dropped a few steps but that doesn’t mean we are at the landing yet,” he said. “The staircase down will be a long one.”
The collapse in imports has been one of the forces warping Russia’s wartime economy and driving it towards what its central bank called “reverse industrialisation”.
Car factories employing tens of thousands ground to a halt for lack of components and simple paper became scarce because manufacturers did not have enough whitening agent.
The Bank of Russia even expects some imports to shift to the “shuttle trade” of the 1990s, when people en masse travelled abroad to bring back goods to sell on open markets.
In the search for new ways to deliver consumer goods from abroad, Fesco, a major Russian cargo company, has launched a new maritime line between Vietnamese ports and its Vladivostok terminal on the Pacific coast.
Its other new initiatives in April included the start of a container service between Istanbul and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, and rail shipments to western Europe.
Yet, even in the government’s telling, the outlook is bleak. Under the main official forecast, goods imports are set to decline by more than a quarter in real terms in 2022.
Besides cheap credit and subsidies for struggling industries, the government has also responded by cancelling customs duties on numerous products and legalising grey market sales, also known as parallel imports.
Countries such as Turkey may increasingly become conduits for imports, according to Andrej Golubchik, professor at the Russian Foreign Trade Academy. Shipments have restarted to India and the Gulf by way of Iran, he said.
JAPANESE GRAND PRIX INFO
Schedule (All times UAE)
First practice: Friday, 5-6.30am
Second practice: Friday, 9-10.30am
Third practice: Saturday, 7-8am
Qualifying: Saturday, 10-11am
Race: Sunday, 9am-midday
Race venue: Suzuka International Racing Course
Circuit Length: 5.807km
Number of Laps: 53
Watch live: beIN Sports HD
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Types of policy
Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.
Whole-of-life insurance: as its name suggests, this type of life cover is designed to run for the rest of your life. You pay regular monthly premiums and in return, get a guaranteed cash lump sum whenever you die. As a result, premiums are typically much higher than one term life insurance, although they do not usually increase with age. In some cases, you have to keep up premiums for as long as you live, although there may be a cut-off period, say, at age 80 but it can go as high as 95. There are penalties if you don’t last the course and you may get a lot less than you paid in.
Critical illness cover: this pays a cash lump sum if you suffer from a serious illness such as cancer, heart disease or stroke. Some policies cover as many as 50 different illnesses, although cancer triggers by far the most claims. The payout is designed to cover major financial responsibilities such as a mortgage or children’s education fees if you fall ill and are unable to work. It is cost effective to combine it with life insurance, with the policy paying out once if you either die or suffer a serious illness.
Income protection: this pays a replacement income if you fall ill and are unable to continue working. On the best policies, this will continue either until you recover, or reach retirement age. Unlike critical illness cover, policies will typically pay out for stress and musculoskeletal problems such as back trouble.
Notable salonnières of the Middle East through history
Al Khasan (Okaz, Saudi Arabia)
Tamadir bint Amr Al Harith, known simply as Al Khasan, was a poet from Najd famed for elegies, earning great renown for the eulogy of her brothers Mu’awiyah and Sakhr, both killed in tribal wars. Although not a salonnière, this prestigious 7th century poet fostered a culture of literary criticism and could be found standing in the souq of Okaz and reciting her poetry, publicly pronouncing her views and inviting others to join in the debate on scholarship. She later converted to Islam.
Maryana Marrash (Aleppo)
A poet and writer, Marrash helped revive the tradition of the salon and was an active part of the Nadha movement, or Arab Renaissance. Born to an established family in Aleppo in Ottoman Syria in 1848, Marrash was educated at missionary schools in Aleppo and Beirut at a time when many women did not receive an education. After touring Europe, she began to host salons where writers played chess and cards, competed in the art of poetry, and discussed literature and politics. An accomplished singer and canon player, music and dancing were a part of these evenings.
Princess Nazil Fadil (Cairo)
Princess Nazil Fadil gathered religious, literary and political elite together at her Cairo palace, although she stopped short of inviting women. The princess, a niece of Khedive Ismail, believed that Egypt’s situation could only be solved through education and she donated her own property to help fund the first modern Egyptian University in Cairo.
Mayy Ziyadah (Cairo)
Ziyadah was the first to entertain both men and women at her Cairo salon, founded in 1913. The writer, poet, public speaker and critic, her writing explored language, religious identity, language, nationalism and hierarchy. Born in Nazareth, Palestine, to a Lebanese father and Palestinian mother, her salon was open to different social classes and earned comparisons with souq of where Al Khansa herself once recited.
The%20Sandman
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Founder: Ayman Badawi
Date started: Test product September 2016, paid launch January 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software
Size: Seven employees
Funding: $170,000 in angel investment
Funders: friends
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday, February 8 v Kenya; Friday, February 9 v Canada; Sunday, February 11 v Nepal; Monday, February 12 v Oman; Wednesday, February 14 v Namibia; Thursday, February 15 final
more from Janine di Giovanni
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
Company%20profile
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