Global economic growth is forecast to slow next year as central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to higher inflation, according to Emirates NBD.
Inflation in a number of countries remains at multiyear highs as a result of supply disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic and higher energy prices prompting central banks to raise interest rates.
Central banks including the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), have raised rates this year by a cumulative 4.25 per cent, 3.25 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, Jeanne Claire Walters, senior economist of Emirates NBD, said.
“The impact of large cumulative interest rate rises across much of the world means that global growth will slow into 2023,” the lender said.
“The IMF [International Monetary Fund] now expects global growth to fall to 2.7 per cent in 2023 from 3.2 per cent in 2022 and 6 per cent in 2021. The fund said that while GDP growth is likely to remain positive next year, high inflation and rising interest rates would make 2023 “feel like a recession”.
In October, the IMF cut its global economic growth forecast for next year, amid the Ukraine conflict, broadening inflation pressures and a slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy.
The fund maintained its global economic estimate for this year at 3.2 per cent but downgraded next year's forecast to 2.7 per cent — 0.2 percentage points lower than the July forecast. There is a 25 per cent probability that growth could fall below 2 per cent next year, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report at the time.
Global economic growth in 2023 is forecast to be as weak as in 2009 during the financial crisis as a result of Ukraine conflict and its impact on the world economy, according to the Institute of International Finance.
The world economy is projected to grow 1.5 per cent next year, compared to 0.6 per cent in 2009, the IIF’s managing director and chief economist, Robin Brooks and economists Jonathan Fortun and Jack Pingle said this month.
“Although tentative signs are beginning to emerge that inflation may have reached its peak in most developed markets, it appears unlikely that central banks will be in any hurry to undo any of the tightening seen thus far,” Emirates NBD said.
“In fact, recent statements from the Fed, BoE and ECB have all emphasised that policymakers are themselves expecting to have to raise rates further than previously anticipated, albeit at a slightly slower pace than seen in 2022.”
Last week, the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rates for the seventh time in 2022 in its continued efforts to fight inflation and indicated more are to come next year.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank would continue to increase rates next year and monetary policy will need to be restrictive “for some time”.
The BoE raised UK interest rates by 0.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent in its attempts to rein-in inflation.
“While we think the UK and eurozone economies are probably already in recession, there is a growing expectation that the economic contraction may be not as deep than feared. This is on the back of a variety of short-term high-frequency indicators performing better than expected,” Emirates NBD said.
“An outright recession is harder to call for the case of the US economy, although it is undoubtedly flirting with one. At present we expect the US economy to grow by less than half a per cent in 2023,” the lender said.
China will also be an important factor in determining global growth next year.
“As China battles large-scale outbreaks of Covid-19 into 2023, the short-term impact is likely to be dampened domestic demand curtailing global growth and further supply disruptions. As activity normalises, however, China’s economic recovery could help to pull the rest of the world out of recession,” the bank said.
China is easing pandemic-related restrictions, following months of lockdowns, as people protest over the government's strict 'zero Covid' policy.
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A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
Pathaan
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Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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Sleep Well Beast
The National
4AD
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Types of fraud
Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
* Nada El Sawy
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Al Jazira's foreign quartet for 2017/18
Romarinho, Brazil
Lassana Diarra, France
Sardor Rashidov, Uzbekistan
Mbark Boussoufa, Morocco
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SE%20(second%20generation)
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The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
SPEC%20SHEET
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M2%2C%208-core%20GPU%2C%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.3-inch%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201600%2C%20227ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%3B%20Touch%20Bar%20with%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206%2C%20Bluetooth%205.0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2058.2Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2020%20hours%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20720p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%2C%20ProRes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Stereo%20speakers%20with%20HDR%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20support%2C%20Dolby%20support%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Pro%2C%2067W%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh5%2C499%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
Company%20Profile
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